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MIXED RISK: Weak German IFO Survey Sets The Stage For Large EURUSD Decline
|MIXED RISK: Weak German IFO Survey Sets The Stage For Large EURUSD Decline|
September 25, 2014 00:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map
Current Market Conditions:
Markets remain in a MIXED RISK posture into the European close. The September Ifo Survey was weaker than expected.. Even the usually optimistic Ifo economists turned gloomy on the data. Perhaps German opposition to ECB ease will soften? EURUSD traded sharply weaker with a lag following the report..
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are easier. The 10-yr bund is 1.007%, -1.10% bp. Peripheral bond yields are lower, except in Greece.
- The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.478% -0.7.1bp. BOE Gov Carney has signaled a Spring 2015 rate hike.
- U.S.10-yr yield is 2.540%, +0.51bp.The Psychological focus is now 2.60%.
- Far East equities closed mixed . Bourses in Europe are closing higher. U.S. shares are higher.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- CPI, US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods, flash Markit Service PMI, 7-yr
- Thursday sees a number of U.S. data releases including weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods orders and the flash Markit U,S. Service PMI.
- U.S, New Homes Sales for August were significantly stronger than expected, but were out of line with other recent data.
- The key German IFO Survey was even weaker than expected, Even the usually positive Ifo economists were gloomy.
- The flash September Japanese PMI report fell from August
- On Friday, U.S. GDP and the final University of Michigan Survey are due. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
12:30 US Initial Claims correction seen
12:30 US Dur Goods correction expected
13:45 US Markit SVC PMI flash Economic Sentiment Survey
00:30 JP CPI seen steady
12:30 US GDP 2Q14 Revised data
13:55 US U Mich final Economic Sentiment seen flat
||Markit SVC PMI flash
||Nat Gas bcf
||U Mich final
Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
John M. Bland is a founding partner of Global-View.com. He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
|Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved|
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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