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Thursday September 25, 2014 - 03:40:29 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 25-Sep-2014 -0339 GMT


The ECB chief reaffirming the supply of free cash encouraged the markets a bit but is that enough? The Asian markets have resumed their bull market. The effect on Nifty remains to been.

A pullback has taken Dow (17210.06, +0.90%) in the middle ground now. A break above 17350 will trigger the target of 17700 or a break below 17000 will reverse the intermediate uptrend. Should be decided by end of the week. Dax (9661.97, +0.70%) bears didnít follow up immediately but keep an eye on 9715-55 to resist the retracement bounce.

Shanghai (2351.39, +0.33%) has hit a new high at 2360 and as long as it stays above 2305 now, expect it rising towards 2430-50. The Nikkei (16364.74, +1.22%) is retesting the 2014 high of 16364 and may target 16800 and 17400 now.

Nifty (8002.40, -0.19%) bounced sharply from exactly our support at 7950. Being the most noisy instrument among all the indices, today may determine if it will follow the other indices and rally toward the resistance area 8050-80.

Gold (1213.65) is trading lower and is nearing the crucial support near 1200 from where we may see a short term bounce towards 1225-1230. Silver (17.604) is also trading low but is above 17.5 and while this holds we may see some ranged moves in the 17.5-18 region. Gold-Silver ratio (68.896) may see levels of 69-69.50 in the coming sessions indicting weakness in the metals.

Nymex WTI (92.75) came off a bit from the 21-day MA near 93.28. But a break above 96 is needed to confirm any reversal. For now prices may fluctuate in the 90-94 region. Overall the long term trend remains down.

Brent (96.83) is quite stable since the last 3-sessions. Movement in the 95-97 zone may continue for some more time now. As said earlier, 95 is a crucial weekly support which may keep prices ranged for sometime. Failure to bounce from 95 may push it towards 92.5-90.

Copper (3.0535) is highly fluctuating in the 3.03-3.07 region unable to decide the further direction. This zone may hold for some more sessions now before determining its direction. Possibility of a fall towards 3.00 cannot be negated just now.

The disparity between the US economic strength and the rest of the world, especially Eurozone, is getting clearer every day. That difference is being manifested in Dollar strength against everything.

Euro (1.2767) chose the path of vertical capitulation mentioned yesterday and reached close to the 2013 low at 1.2744. If it doesnít halt by 1.2650, then we may see 1.2250-2050 in the coming days.

Dollar-Yen (109.16) has already bounced back closer to its year high and a move above 109.50 will confirm the resumption of the major uptrend targeting 110.30 and 113. The Euro-Yen Cross (139.37) has achieved our initial target of 139 but the correction is yet to signal its end, keeping the door towards 138.50 open.

The Pound (1.6321) is showing immense volatility as discussed multiple times. Our 1.6550 has turned out to be the cap of the current bounce and is acting as the top end of the short term range as expected with the currency trading in 1.6050-1.6525 for the next few weeks.

Aussie (0.8826) failed to break above 0.89 and made a new low in the aftermath. It is not far away from one of the important confluence support area in 0.8710-0.8680.

Dollar-Rupee (60.96) neither came down nor triggered our negation point the bearish scenario at 61.05. It may remain in the range of 60.70-61.20 for a few more sessions now with the bias turning to neutral slowly

The US 5Yr (1.81%),10Yr (2.56%) and 30 Yr (3.28%) have risen by 4, 2 and 3bps respectively. The US 30-10Yr differential (0.72%) is testing support near current levels and may soon bounce towards 0.75-0.80% while the 10-5Yr (0.76%) after falling from resistance near 0.81% is now headed towards support near 0.70%. Overall the 10Yr yields may fall while the 30-Yr may rise in the near term.

The German 5Yr (0.20%) is stable for now but is in a long term downtrend. If this continues we may see a fall towards 0.15-0.10% in the near term. Overall the German yields have fallen. Euro (1.2775) is trading lower and may continue to fall towards 1.270 in the near term.

The Indian 10Yr (8.48%) has risen further taking the Indo-US 10 Yr (5.94%) higher by 2bps. Given that the US 10-Yr may fall the Indo-US 10Yr may rise towards 6-6.5% in the near term.


12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US Durable Goods Orders
...Expected -17.7 % ...Previous 22.62 %


GER IFO Business Climate
...Expected 105.9 ...Previous 106.30 ...Actual 104.70

GER IFO Business Situations
...Expected 110.6 ...Previous 111.10 ...Actual 110.50

GER IFO Business Expectations
...Expected 101.3 ...Previous 101.70 ...Actual 99.30

US New Home Sales
...Expected 432 K ...Previous 427 K ...Actual 504 K






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