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Friday September 26, 2014 - 15:25:26 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Sell-Off on Hold, Bill Gross Dumps PIMCO


Fri, 26 Sep 2014 11:15 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (BR) Brazil Aug PPI Manufacturing M/M: 0.5% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.5% v 3.5% prior
- (US) Q2 Final GDP Annualized Q/Q: +4.6% v 4.6%e; Personal Consumption: 2.5% v 2.5%e
- (MX) Mexico Aug Preliminary Trade Balance: -$1.1B v -$600Me
- (BR) Brazil Aug Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): 2.86T v 2.835T prior
- (US) Sept Final University of Michigan Confidence: 84.6 v 84.8e

The big sell-off is on pause this morning as trade consolidates and participants take a collective deep breath. Yesterday S&P 500 closed at 1966, below its 50-day moving average for the first time since August 13th, while the NASDAQ finished below the 50-day for first time since August 7th. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.49%, the S&P500 is up 0.25% and the Nasdaq is up 0.45%.

The euro took another leg downwards this morning, dropping to 22-month lows around 1.2680 this morning before bouncing back up to 1.2700. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is firmly above 109 after some resistance at this level in the Asia and European sessions. Both Deutsche Bank and S&P added their voices to the analysis of the ECB's TLTRO flop, agreeing that the recent auction results have increased the probability of a QE program in the near term.

The final revisions to second quarter US GDP were in line with expectations, at +4.6% versus the +4.2% preliminary reading, matching the fourth quarter of 2011 as the fastest quarterly growth rate since 2006. Analysts caution the data needs to be viewed in the context of the -2.1% first quarter GDP, which would put the average growth rate for the first half of the year at an unimpressive +1.2%. Early indications are that the third quarter growth estimate will be 3% or more.

Ukraine, Russia and the EU holding talks today to hopefully end the Russia-Ukraine natural gas dispute. Russia says Ukraine owes it $5.3 billion for unpaid gas deliveries, and Russia Energy Minister Novak warned that Europe is contractually not allowed to re-export gas to Ukraine and could see its supplies cut if it did so. Separately, the Kremlin as expected seized Bashneft assets owned by Sistema, citing flimsy, trumped up charges of "contractual violations." USD/RUB has plummeted to record lows of 39.

In one of the most surprising developments of the day, Bill Gross resigned from PIMCO and said he would join Janus Capital. CNBC's David Faber reported that PIMCO was going to fire Gross tomorrow due to "increasingly erratic behavior." PIMCO Deputy CIO Dan Ivanscyn will likely be chosen as Gross's successor. Shares of JNS are up more than 32% on the news, while PIMCO parent Allianz is down nearly 6% on the DAX.

Shares of BlackBerry are up 7.8% this morning after the firm managed to get very close to non-gaap profitability in its second quarter. The firm's loss was much smaller than expected, although revenue remains lower that consensus views. Unit sales are also picking up: in the second quarter, BlackBerry recognized hardware revenue on 2.1M smartphone units versus 1.3M in the prior quarter. The CEO said the company was about half way through its recovery period.

***Looking Ahead***
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Q2 Current Account Balance: No est v -$3.3B prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina July Economic Activity Index M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.0% prior
- 21:30 (CN) China Aug Industrial Profits Y/Y: No est v 13.5% prior

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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