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Active Week With European Central Bank Decision and U.S. September Employment Awaited

Active Week With European Central Bank Decision and U.S. September Employment Awaited
 September 29, 2014 00:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
Markets have moved out of their RISK-OFF posture from early in the day to a MIXED RISK stance. As we indicated here earlier, the focus has been  on how U.S.. equity markets would perform today. It looks like we have been seeing some pre-weekend short-covering  The EURUSD is trading lower.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mixed. The 10-yr bund is 0.978%,  0.0% bp. Peripheral bond yields are mixed.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.460% +0.3bp. BOE Gov Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.520%, +0.9bp.The Psychological focus is now 2.60%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly lower. Bourses in Europe ended  mostly higher.  U.S. shares are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS:  AU- PMI, EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Pending Home Sales
  • This week sees an active calendar starting with Monday which features the U.S. core PCE deflator and Pending Homes Sales.
  • Tuesday sees German unemployment, U.K. GDP, Eurozone flash HICP, and a number of U.S. releases.
  • On Wednesday, the BOJ quarterly Tankan Survey is due along with a slew of manufacturing PMI indices. The September ADP private Jobs estimate is awaited.
  • Thursday sees the latest ECB Po;icy decision.
  • On Friday, a slew of Service PMIs are set for release along with the September U.S jobs report.  
  • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
12:30 US PCE deflator  Fed inflation target seen tame
12:30 US Personal  Income Key to consumer spending
14:00 US Pending Homes Predicts Existing Homes Sales
23:50 JP Industrial  Output Industrial Production
00:30 JP Unemployment  BOJ  target goal
00:50 JP Retail Sales  Consumer Demand
06:00 DE Retail Sales Key Demand Metric
07:00 CH KOF Sentiment Indicator
07:55  DE Unemployment Jobs are key for ECB
08:30 GB GDP Key production measure 
09:00  EZ flash HICP yy .ECB inflation target
12:30 A CA GDP  Widest economic measure
13:45 A US Chicago PMI  Key regional PMI
14:00 A US CB Consumer Confidence Established index
23:50 A JP Tankan (lg mfg) Top production indicator
00:13 JP Final PMI Closely-followed production index
01:00  CN NBS PMI Closely-followed production index
01:30 AU Retail Sales Consumer activity
01:45 CN HSBC final PMI Closely-followed production index
07:30 CH PMI Closely-followed production index
07:55 DE MFG PMI final Closely-followed production index
07:58 EZ MFG PMI final Closely-followed production index
08:28  GB MFG PMI Closely-followed production index
12:15  US ADP Jobs Predictor of non-farm payrolls
13:45  US MKT MFG PMI final Closely-followed production index
14:00  US ISM MFG PMI Closely-followed production index
14:00  US Construction  Economic activity measure
01:30 AU Trade Important Trade measure
08:28 GB Construction PMI Closely-followed production index
11:45 EZ Europe Cntl Bank More ease to be signaled?
12:30  US Initial Claims 300 293
14:00  US Factory Orders Future production predictor
07:55 DE SVC PMI final Key Service Sector index
07:58  EZ SVC PMI final Key Service Sector index
08:28 GB SVC PMI Key Service Sector index
12:30  CA Trade External sector measure 
12:30  US Payrolls Major Fed Target
12:30  US Trade Impacts GDP calculation
13:45  US Markit SVC PM Key Service Sector index
14:00  US ISM SVC PMI Key Service Sector index
Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
29/09/14 1:30 A AU Mfg PMI n/a 47.3
29/09/14 9:00 B EZ Cons Conf -11.4 -11.4
29/09/14 12:30 A US PCE defl y 1.40% 1.50%
29/09/14 12:30 A US Per Inc 0.40% 0.20%
29/09/14 14:00 A US Pending Homes -0.50% 3.30%
29/09/14 23:50 A JP Ind Out p yy -0.10% -0.70%
30/09/14 0:00 A TUESDAY
30/09/14 0:30 A JP Unemploy Mar 3.80% 3.80%
30/09/14 0:50 A JP Retail Sales yy 0.30% 60%
30/09/14 6:00 A DE Ret Sales mo 0.50% 0.50%
30/09/14 6:00 A DE Ret Sales yr 0.30% 1.00%
30/09/14 7:00 A CH KOF Ind n/a 99.5
30/09/14 7:55 A DE unem Kchg -2 1
30/09/14 7:55 A DE unempl rate 6.70% 6.70%
30/09/14 8:30 A GB GDP QQ 0.8& 0.80%
30/09/14 8:30 A GB GDP YY 3.20% 3.20%
30/09/14 9:00 A EZ FL HICP yy 0.30% 0.40%
30/09/14 9:00 A EZ FL HICP core yy 0.90% 0.90%
30/09/14 9:00 C EZ Unemployment % 11.50% 11.50%
30/09/14 12:30 A CA GDP mm n/a 0.30%
30/09/14 13:00 B US Case-Shil 20 yy 7.40% 8.10%
30/09/14 13:45 A US Chicago PMI 61.5 64.3
30/09/14 14:00 A US CB Consumer Conf 92.4 92.4
30/09/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
30/09/14 23:50 A JP Tankan (lg mfg) 10 12
01/10/14 0:00 A WEDNESDAY
01/10/14 0:13 A JP Final PMI 51.1 51.1
01/10/14 1:00 A CN NBS PMI 51 51.1
01/10/14 1:30 A AU Retail Sales n/a 0.40%
01/10/14 1:45 A CN HSBC final PMI 50.5 50.5
01/10/14 7:30 A CH PMI n/a 52.9
01/10/14 7:50 B FR MFG PMI final 48.8 48.8
01/10/14 7:55 A DE MFG PMI final 50.3 50.3
01/10/14 7:58 A EZ MFG PMI final 50.5 50.5
01/10/14 8:28 A GB MFG PMI 52.7 52.5
01/10/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
01/10/14 12:15 A US ADP Jobs 202 204
01/10/14 13:45 A US MKT MFG PMI final 57.9 57.9
01/10/14 14:00 A US ISM MFG PMI 58 59
01/10/14 14:00 A US Construction Mar 0.40% 1.80%
01/10/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a -4.3
01/10/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a -0.4
01/10/14 14:30 A US EIA Distillate mn n/a 0.82
01/10/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 93.40%

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved


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Mon 10 Sep 2018
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A 12:30 US- PPI
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