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Active Week With European Central Bank Decision and U.S. September Employment Awaited
|Active Week With European Central Bank Decision and U.S. September Employment Awaited|
September 29, 2014 00:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map
Current Market Conditions:
Markets have moved out of their RISK-OFF posture from early in the day to a MIXED RISK stance. As we indicated here earlier, the focus has been on how U.S.. equity markets would perform today. It looks like we have been seeing some pre-weekend short-covering The EURUSD is trading lower.
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mixed. The 10-yr bund is 0.978%, 0.0% bp. Peripheral bond yields are mixed.
- The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.460% +0.3bp. BOE Gov Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015 rate hike.
- U.S.10-yr yield is 2.520%, +0.9bp.The Psychological focus is now 2.60%.
- Far East equities closed mostly lower. Bourses in Europe ended mostly higher. U.S. shares are up.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- PMI, EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Pending Home Sales
- This week sees an active calendar starting with Monday which features the U.S. core PCE deflator and Pending Homes Sales.
- Tuesday sees German unemployment, U.K. GDP, Eurozone flash HICP, and a number of U.S. releases.
- On Wednesday, the BOJ quarterly Tankan Survey is due along with a slew of manufacturing PMI indices. The September ADP private Jobs estimate is awaited.
- Thursday sees the latest ECB Po;icy decision.
- On Friday, a slew of Service PMIs are set for release along with the September U.S jobs report.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):MONDAY
12:30 US PCE deflator Fed inflation target seen tame
12:30 US Personal Income Key to consumer spending
14:00 US Pending Homes Predicts Existing Homes Sales
23:50 JP Industrial Output Industrial Production
00:30 JP Unemployment BOJ target goal
00:50 JP Retail Sales Consumer Demand
06:00 DE Retail Sales Key Demand Metric
07:00 CH KOF Sentiment Indicator
07:55 DE Unemployment Jobs are key for ECB
08:30 GB GDP Key production measure
09:00 EZ flash HICP yy .ECB inflation target
12:30 A CA GDP Widest economic measure
13:45 A US Chicago PMI Key regional PMI
14:00 A US CB Consumer Confidence Established index
23:50 A JP Tankan (lg mfg) Top production indicator
00:13 JP Final PMI Closely-followed production index
01:00 CN NBS PMI Closely-followed production index
01:30 AU Retail Sales Consumer activity
01:45 CN HSBC final PMI Closely-followed production index
07:30 CH PMI Closely-followed production index
07:55 DE MFG PMI final Closely-followed production index
07:58 EZ MFG PMI final Closely-followed production index
08:28 GB MFG PMI Closely-followed production index
12:15 US ADP Jobs Predictor of non-farm payrolls
13:45 US MKT MFG PMI final Closely-followed production index
14:00 US ISM MFG PMI Closely-followed production index
14:00 US Construction Economic activity measure
01:30 AU Trade Important Trade measure
08:28 GB Construction PMI Closely-followed production index
11:45 EZ Europe Cntl Bank More ease to be signaled?
12:30 US Initial Claims 300 293
14:00 US Factory Orders Future production predictor
07:55 DE SVC PMI final Key Service Sector index
07:58 EZ SVC PMI final Key Service Sector index
08:28 GB SVC PMI Key Service Sector index
12:30 CA Trade External sector measure
12:30 US Payrolls Major Fed Target
12:30 US Trade Impacts GDP calculation
13:45 US Markit SVC PM Key Service Sector index
14:00 US ISM SVC PMI Key Service Sector index
||PCE defl y
||Ind Out p yy
||Retail Sales yy
||Ret Sales mo
||Ret Sales yr
||FL HICP yy
||FL HICP core yy
||Case-Shil 20 yy
||CB Consumer Conf
||Tankan (lg mfg)
||HSBC final PMI
||MFG PMI final
||MFG PMI final
||MFG PMI final
||WK Mortgage Stats
||MKT MFG PMI final
||ISM MFG PMI
||EIA Crude mn
||EIA Gasoline mn
||EIA Distillate mn
||EIA Cap Util
Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
John M. Bland is a founding partner of Global-View.com. He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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