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Monday September 29, 2014 - 04:07:45 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Morning Briefing : 29-Sep-2014 -0407 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
No major data coming. No big event taking place. Markets look more undecided right now and in search for a firm clue, resulting in a mixed sentiment & trend.

Dow (17113.15, +0.99%) protected and bounced again from the 5-week low of 16935-50 levels. The highly overlapping nature of the fall suggests it to be a weak correction that may get over soon. Dax (9490.55, -0.20%) bears returned exactly from our 9715 levels to make a new low. Remaining weak below 9600, it may test 9370-280 in the near term.

Shanghai (2351.02, +0.14%) bounced from 2330, close to our support area of 2325, to retest the recent high of 2365. As long as it stays above 2325-15 now, expect it rising towards 2430-50. The Nikkei (16299.94, +0.43%) is consolidating its recent gains in the range of 15900-16400 but the targets of 16800 and 17400 remain unchanged.

Nifty (7968.85, +0.72%) has tested the 50 day SMA and bounced from 7840, just a few points off of our support in 7860-50. The bulls may attempt a genuine reversal now only if they manage to protect 7880-50 today in any dip. A break below 7840 would open further drop to 7770-50.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1218.59) came off from resistance near 1230 and may see a fall towards 1210-1200 again before rising again from there. A break above 1230 and further 1250 is needed for any bullish signal. Movements may be restricted within 1200-1225-1300 in the near term.

Silver (17.523) is trading lower braking the support of 17.8 on the daily charts. Need to see if it breaks below 17 to see levels of 16.5-16. Ranged moves in the 17.0-18 region may be expected for now while above 17.. Overall the long term trend remains down.

Nymex WTI (93.00) has risen well last week and is now heading towards resistance near 94 from where we may see a fall to 92.5-92.00 levels in the near term. The broad 90-95 region still holds. We may see some sideways consolidation above 90 giving some time for the bulls to gear up. For now movements maybe restricted within crucial support and resistance levels of 90 and 94-95-96 respectively as said earlier. A sustained break above 96-98 is a must for any indication of a bullish reversal.

Brent (96.75) has been well held below the 13-day MA for the past few sessions and is stable for now. The crucial 95-97 zone mentioned earlier still holds and a break on either side may bring in a sharp move in the near term. While the 13-day MA holds we may see stable moves in the 95-96 region for a couple of sessions now.

Copper (3.0180) has fallen now nearing 3.00 levels as expected and may pause near the 3.0-3.02 levels for a few sessions. Overall the long term trend is down and if a break below 3 is seen it may target 2.95-2.90 resuming the longer term trend downwards

FOREX
Just like it was estimated, Dollar Index (85.69) remains above 85 levels and the Majors keep hitting new lows. The panic short covering and the huge range breakout make the terms like “overbought” meaningless, when it comes to the Dollar right now. No immediate topping signal is visible.

Euro (1.2680) keeps crashing towards the ICU just as expected with the absolute weakness in all timeframes. Our support 1.2660 is close to being broken and the bearish momentum remains in full force with the possibility of seeing 1.2550 immediately and then 1.2250-2050 in 1-2 weeks.

Dollar-Yen (109.42) is retesting the 3 week high near 109.45-55 but a move above 109.60 will confirm the resumption of the major uptrend targeting 110.30 and 113. The Euro-Yen Cross (138.72) has achieved our second target of 138.50 too and may try to bounce again if 138.25-137.65 provides support.

The Pound (1.6233) has been forming weekly candles with large shadows for the last 3 weeks, implying high volatility and confusion. The currency may keep trading in 1.6050-1.6525 for the next few days.

Aussie (0.8703) is testing one of the important confluence support area in 0.8710-0.8680. If this area can’t limit the fall for a few sessions at least, expect a fast fall to 0.85-0.84.

Dollar-Rupee (61.14) rallied to 61.61 and then crashed vertically to 61 levels on the news of rating upgrade. The trend is unclear and it may be revealed today if the Friday movement was a knee-jerk reaction only or a more sustainable move.

INTEREST RATES
Look for the US 5Yr (1.80%) to rise further towards 1.90% in the coming weeks and the 2Yr (0.58%) to move up towards 0.68%. The 10-5Yr Spread (0.73%) continues to fall from the 0.81% channel Resistance and is likely to test 0.70% soon. Need to see if it will break below 0.70% to target 0.65%. The 30-10Yr (0.69%) is trying to break important Support at 0.70%. The long-term Curve Flattening theme remains in place in the USA.

In Europe, the Greek 10Yr (6.16%) is showing signs of moving up but Germany, France, Spain, Italy have all come off from their medium term trend Resistance levels and could dip a little more in the near term. However, there is long-term Support on the KSHITIJ E-4 (1.2051%) and E-7 (1.39%) Composite Yields at 1.17% and 1.31% respectively. These Supports may not break easily and could produce a longer term rise in European yields. But this reading needs confirmation. Watch this space.

The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.01%) continues to find important Resistance near current levels and could come off a bit towards 1.95%. This could lead to some profit-taking in Dollar-Yen (109.41).

The Indo-US 10Yr Spread (5.91%) seems to be gearing up for a rise towards 6.05%, due to possible dip in the US 10Yr (2.53%) and a possible uptick in the Indian 10Yr GOI (8.44%) towards 8.50-8.55%. Market likely to be cautious ahead of the RBI Monetary Policy announcement tomorrow and some profit-taking in the Debt market would be understandable.

DATA TODAY



9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU Biz Climate
...Expected 100.0 ...Previous 100.6

12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US Personal Income
...Expected 0.30 % ...Previous 0.19 %

12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US PCE Price Index M/M
...Expected 0.50 % ...Previous -0.11 %


FRIDAY'S DATA:-


US GDP
...Expected 4.60 % ...Previous 4.10 % ...Actual 4.51 %

 

 

 

 

 

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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
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13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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15:30 US- EIA Crude
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