User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday September 30, 2014 - 04:02:39 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Morning Briefing : 30-Sep-2014 -0401 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
With nothing significant in the global market, all eyes are fixed on the RBI meet today. Nothing more than an SLR cut is expected but that will be trendsetter for the rest of the day.

Dow (17071.22, -0.25%) bounced for the 3rd consecutive time from the 16935-50 levels. The highly overlapping nature of the fall suggests it to be a weak correction that may get over soon. Dax (9422.91, -0.71%) achieved our target of 9370 and holding this level, may experience a pause in the downtrend for a day or two.

Shanghai (2361.88, +0.18%) has been testing the recent high of 2365 for the third time in the last 4 sessions. As long as it stays above 2325-15 now, expect it rising towards 2430-50. The Nikkei (16087.85, -1.37%) is dropping on the back of a disappointing industrial output data and the uptrend may get weak below 15900 with the higher targets in a crisis.

Nifty (7958.90, -0.12%) went nowhere just before the RBI meet. The bulls may attempt a genuine reversal now only if they manage to protect 7880-50 today in any dip. A break below 7840 would open further drop to 7770-50.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1216.92) is trading lower and may see levels of 1210-1200 before bouncing up from there. Ranged moves in the 1200-1225-1300 region is expected in the near term. Silver (17.522) is also trading low and a break below 17.50 may push it to 16.5-16 levels. Overall long term trend is down.

Nymex WTI (94.32) has risen sharply from 92.7 and if this continues may soon test levels of 96-98 by the coming week. But a fall towards 92.5-92.00 cannot be negated just now. The broad 90-95 region persists. For now movements may be restricted within crucial support near 90 and resistance zone of 94-96. A sustained break above 96-98 is a must for any indication of a bullish reversal.

Brent (97.10) is stable and seems to consolidate in the coming sessions. The crucial 95-97 zone is likely to hold for some more time now. Movements have been held well by the 13-day MA as a good resistance for now.

Copper (3.0565) has risen again after making an intra-day low of 3.0125 yesterday and seems to be ranged in the 3.05-3.00 region, unable to decide further direction. Overall the long term trend is down but while above 3.00 we may see some sideways consolidation.

 

FOREX
RBI meet is the point of attraction today. With Dollar Index (85.56) in a pause mode, expect a quiet market otherwise.

Euro (1.2692) is trying to hold its ground for some time but unless it manages to break above 1.2715 immediately and 1.2820 later, the same story of vicious bear attacks can run again with the possibility of seeing 1.2550 in the near term and then 1.2250-2050 in 1-2 weeks.

Dollar-Yen (109.26) broke above 109.60 but the expected rally didnít materialize. The bullish momentum will be in question on a break below 109. Till then, the possibility of sharp rises remains on the cards targeting 110.30 and 113. The Euro-Yen Cross (138.70) has achieved our second target of 138.50 too and may try to bounce again if 138.25-137.65 provides support.

The Pound (1.6252) has been forming weekly candles with large shadows for the last 3 weeks, implying high volatility and confusion. The currency may keep trading in 1.6050-1.6525 for the next few days.

Aussie (0.8746) is showing a positive daily candle after a long time, bouncing from exactly our support 0.8710-0.8680 and may take a pause for 1-2 sessions. Immediate resistance comes from 0.8770-0.8835.

Dollar-Rupee (61.5350) tested the last week high of 61.63 and closed just a bit lower. The RBI meet will be the trend decider but if nothing more than an SLR cut takes place, then a flat closing may be expected EOD.

INTEREST RATES
RBI's Monetary Policy today. No rate cut expected, given that food inflation remains high and is unlikely to come down in the very near term. Some people think the SLR may be cut 25-50 bp from the current 22.0%. Might well be possible. See our chart on the main policy rates at http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/inrbi.shtml

The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.4623%) rose slightly yesterday from 8.44% on Friday. We see chances of further rise towards 8.50-55%. The Indo-US 10Yr Spread (5.94%) has also started moving up and can target 6.05% in the coming days.

ECB Meeting on Thursday. No BOE this time. The ECB continues to fight the European stagnation alone, one had tied behind its back. Still, the German 10Yr (0.96%) could have Support near 0.90%. Need to see if it will bounce from there. Should that happen, it could lead to some serious short-covering in the Euro (1.2691). Also, the German-US 2Yr Spread (-0.64%) is now grazing a downtrend channel Support line and could see some bounce from here. Be careful on this.

The Japanese 10Yr (0.5165%) is in a strong downtrend but might have some Support coming up near 0.4865%.

In the USA, the broad Curve flattening theme continues. The 10-5 Yr Spread (0.72%) is close to the previous low of 0.70%. A break below that is also possible. The 30-10Yr Spread (0.68%) also seems to be breaking its earlier 0.70% Support.

DATA TODAY



23:05 GMT or 4:35 IST UK Cons Conf
...Expected 0 ...Previous 1

23:30 GMT or 5:00 IST JP Unemp
...Expected 3.8 % ...Previous 3.8 % ...Actual 3.5 %

5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI Repo Rate
...Previous 8.00 %

5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI Reverse Repo Rate
...Previous 7.00 %

5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI CRR
...Previous 4.00 %

5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI MSF
...Previous 9.00 %

9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU Unemp
...Expected 11.50 % ...Previous 11.50 %

12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST CA GDP
...Previous 0.30 %

13:00 GMT or 18:30 IST US Case Schiller
...Expected 7.50 % ...Previous 8.08 %

14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US Cons Conf
...Expected 92.20 ...Previous 92.40


DATA YESTERDAY
EU Biz Climate
...Expected 100.0 ...Previous 100.6 ...Actual 99.9

US Personal Income
...Expected 0.30 % ...Previous 0.24 % ...Actual 0.32 %

US PCE Price Index M/M
...Expected 0.50 % ...Previous 0.00 % ...Actual 0.48 %


 

 

 

 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 20 November 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105