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Tuesday September 30, 2014 - 10:40:47 GMT -

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Eurozone Flash HICP Sees Prices Continuing To Fall. Weak German Employment Figures. Final U.K. QQ GDP Revised Higher

Eurozone Flash HICP Sees Prices Continuing To Fall. Weak German Employment Figures. Final U.K. QQ GDP Revised Higher
 September 30, 2014 10:30 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
Markets appear to be moving into  a RISK-ON posture today following weak flash Eurozone HICP data and weaker than expected German unemployment data ahead of the ECB decision on Thursday.. The EURUSD is trading lower on the day.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are higher. The 10-yr bund is 0.980%,  +2.0% bp. Peripheral bond yields are mixed.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.490% +5.0bp. BOE Gov Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.520%, +3.2bp.The Psychological focus is now 2.50%.
  • Far East equities closed mixed. Bourses in Europe are mostly higher.  U.S. share futures are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS: CA- GDP, US- Case-Shiller, Chicago PMI, CB Confidence
    • Eurozone flash September HICP saw prices continue to fall. This will intensify the pressure on the ECB to stabilize prices at its meeting this week. 
    • German unemployment figures were weaker than expected, but retail Sales data were mixed.
    • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.  .
    • On Wednesday, the BOJ quarterly Tankan Survey is due along with a slew of manufacturing PMI indices. The September ADP private Jobs estimate is awaited.
    • Thursday sees the latest ECB Po;icy decision.
    • On Friday, a slew of Service PMIs are set for release along with the September U.S jobs report.  
    • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
    Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):

    00:30 JP Unemployment  BOJ  target goal
    00:50 JP Retail Sales  Consumer Demand
    06:00 DE Retail Sales Key Demand Metric
    07:00 CH KOF Sentiment Indicator
    07:55  DE Unemployment Jobs are key for ECB
    08:30 GB GDP Key production measure 
    09:00  EZ flash HICP yy .ECB inflation target
    12:30 A CA GDP  Widest economic measure
    13:45 A US Chicago PMI  Key regional PMI
    14:00 A US CB Consumer Confidence Established index
    23:50 A JP Tankan (lg mfg) Top production indicator
    00:13 JP Final PMI Closely-followed production index
    01:00  CN NBS PMI Closely-followed production index
    01:30 AU Retail Sales Consumer activity
    01:45 CN HSBC final PMI Closely-followed production index
    07:30 CH PMI Closely-followed production index
    07:55 DE MFG PMI final Closely-followed production index
    07:58 EZ MFG PMI final Closely-followed production index
    08:28  GB MFG PMI Closely-followed production index
    12:15  US ADP Jobs Predictor of non-farm payrolls
    13:45  US MKT MFG PMI final Closely-followed production index
    14:00  US ISM MFG PMI Closely-followed production index
    14:00  US Construction  Economic activity measure
    01:30 AU Trade Important Trade measure
    08:28 GB Construction PMI Closely-followed production index
    11:45 EZ Europe Cntl Bank More ease to be signaled?
    12:30  US Initial Claims 300 293
    14:00  US Factory Orders Future production predictor
    07:55 DE SVC PMI final Key Service Sector index
    07:58  EZ SVC PMI final Key Service Sector index
    08:28 GB SVC PMI Key Service Sector index
    12:30  CA Trade External sector measure 
    12:30  US Payrolls Major Fed Target
    12:30  US Trade Impacts GDP calculation
    13:45  US Markit SVC PM Key Service Sector index
    14:00  US ISM SVC PMI Key Service Sector index
    Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
    30/09/14 12:30 A CA GDP mm n/a 0.30%
    30/09/14 13:00 B US Case-Shil 20 yy 7.40% 8.10%
    30/09/14 13:45 A US Chicago PMI 61.5 64.3
    30/09/14 14:00 A US CB Consumer Conf 92.4 92.4
    30/09/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
    30/09/14 23:50 A JP Tankan (lg mfg) 10 12
    01/10/14 0:00 A WEDNESDAY
    01/10/14 0:13 A JP Final PMI 51.1 51.1
    01/10/14 1:00 A CN NBS PMI 51 51.1
    01/10/14 1:30 A AU Retail Sales n/a 0.40%
    01/10/14 1:45 A CN HSBC final PMI 50.5 50.5
    01/10/14 7:30 A CH PMI n/a 52.9
    01/10/14 7:50 B FR MFG PMI final 48.8 48.8
    01/10/14 7:55 A DE MFG PMI final 50.3 50.3
    01/10/14 7:58 A EZ MFG PMI final 50.5 50.5
    01/10/14 8:28 A GB MFG PMI 52.7 52.5
    01/10/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
    01/10/14 12:15 A US ADP Jobs 202 204
    01/10/14 13:45 A US MKT MFG PMI final 57.9 57.9
    01/10/14 14:00 A US ISM MFG PMI 58 59
    01/10/14 14:00 A US Construction Mar 0.40% 1.80%
    01/10/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a -4.3
    01/10/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a -0.4
    01/10/14 14:30 A US EIA Distillate mn n/a 0.82
    01/10/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 93.40%
    02/10/14 0:00 A THURSDAY
    02/10/14 1:30 A AU Trade A$bln n/a -1.359
    02/10/14 8:28 A GB Construction PMI 63.5 64
    02/10/14 11:45 A EZ Europe Cntl Bank 0.15% 0.15%
    02/10/14 12:30 A EZ ECB Webcast n/a n/a
    02/10/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 300 293
    02/10/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.44
    02/10/14 14:00 A US Factory Orders -9.00% 10.50%
    02/10/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 97
    03/10/14 0:00 A FRIDAY
    03/10/14 7:50 B FR SVC PMI final 49.4 49.4
    03/10/14 7:55 A DE SVC PMI final 54.6 54.9
    03/10/14 7:58 A EZ SVC PMI final 52.8 52.8
    03/10/14 8:28 A GB SVC PMI 59 60.5
    03/10/14 9:00 B EZ Retail Sls mm 0.10% -0.40%
    03/10/14 9:00 B EZ Retail Sls yy 0.70% 0.80%
    03/10/14 12:30 A CA Trade C$bn n/a 2.58
    03/10/14 12:30 A US Jobless % 6.10% 6.10%
    03/10/14 12:30 A US Payrolls 213 142
    03/10/14 12:30 A US Priv Jobs 200 134
    03/10/14 12:30 A US Trade USDb -41 -40.5
    03/10/14 13:45 A US Markit SVC PMI 58.5 58.5
    03/10/14 14:00 A US ISM SVC PMI 58.5 59.6
    03/10/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

    See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

    John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
    Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved


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