User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday October 1, 2014 - 03:50:22 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Morning Briefing : 01-Oct-2014 -0349 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
The Holiday week begins in China & Hong Kong markets along with a very long weekend in India. Still, closing the positions may produce some volatility in the Indian markets.

Dow (17042.90, -0.17%) spent the session in the already established weekly range of 16900-17150. The highly overlapping nature of the fall suggests it to be a weak correction that may get over soon. Dax (9474.30, +0.55%) took a pause in the downtrend exactly as expected and it may continue for some more time, at least till the ECB meet. 9600 may act as a stiff resistance or any bounce.

Shanghai (2363.87, +0.26%) has been testing the recent high of 2365 for the third time in the last 4 sessions. As long as it stays above 2325-15 now, expect it rising towards 2430-50. The Nikkei (16214.78, +0.26%) bounced back from the lower end of the range 16000-400 and may continue trading in the same range for another session.

Nifty (7964.80, +0.07%) rallied sharply after the RBI meet but faced rejection from our old resistance area of 8040-50, establishing that area further as the main trigger level for the bulls. So the index is limited to 7840-8050 now and a break of this range will give us a clear trend.

COMMODITIES
Commodities have all fallen and are trading low. Near term looks bearish.

Gold (1206.12) was again pushed by the 13-day MA as expected and is now trading lower. 1200 may be tested in the next few sessions. Expect a break below 1200 next week. Near term is bearish.

Silver (16.951) dropped sharply yesterday nearing our expected targets of 16.5-16levels. Bears are strong for now and if the fall continues to break below 16 we may see a danger of testing 14 in the near term. Overall long term trend is down.

Nymex WTI (91.43) fell sharply as expected coming back to test levels of 91-90. Strong dominance of the bears continues for now. It may whipsaw in the 90-95 range and unless a break on either side is seen.
Brent (95.020) has fallen to test support near 95 and may consolidate a bit above 95. The crucial 95-97 zone is likely to hold for some time now. Overall trend remains down.

Copper (3.0045) is whipsawing in the 3.00-3.05 region and may continue to do so for a few more sessions unless a break in either side is seen. Overall near term remains bearish.

 

FOREX
Nothing changed as Dollar (86.04) keeps rising and rising, hitting new highs for 5 consecutive sessions. Rupee may hurt more now after the RBI meet.

Euro (1.2610) failed to break above 1.2715 and just as expected, crashed vertically from 1.2702 to 1.2568 levels, just a few pips away from our support of 1.2550. Repeat - unless it manages to break above 1.2715 immediately and 1.2820 later, the same story of vicious bear attacks can run again with the possibility of seeing much lower levels very fast.

Dollar-Yen (109.94) is close to reach our first target of 110.30 and 113 also looks likely as long as the pair remains above 109. The Euro-Yen Cross (138.65) has achieved our second target of 138.50 too and may try to bounce again if 138.25-137.65 provides support.

The Pound (1.6189) has been forming weekly candles with large shadows for the last 3 weeks, implying high volatility and confusion. The currency may keep trading in 1.6050-1.6525 for the next few days.

Aussie (0.8675) pause didnít survive for more than a single day as the bounce was rejected sharply by exactly our resistance at 0.8770. Trading below the 4-year support of 0.8660 keeps it ready for more fall targeting 0.84 levels.

Dollar-Rupee (61.74) has confirmed its uptrend and with the long weekend coming, Dollar demand can push it up more towards 62.00 and 62.40 levels.

INTEREST RATES
The RBI kept rates unchanged yesterday, warning that its inflation forecast is of 7% rather than the needed target of 6%. The 10Yr GOI has risen to 8.51%, in line with our expectation of a rise towards 8.50-55%. Need to see if this Resistance holds or breaks. May be crucial for the Rupee going forward. Unable to decide on direction after 5.55% risght now.

Importantly, the US-Japan 10Yr Yield Spread (1.97%) has come off from the 2.01% Resistance mentioned a couple of days ago and is close to the initial target of 1.95%. Further dip towards 1.92% is also possible. Need to see whether this can be a drag on the still bullish Dollar-Yen (109.93).

The German-US 2Yr Spread (-0.65%) continues to hug the downtrend channel Support line, falling along the line for now. Failure to bounce will keep pressure on the Euro (1.2613). Watch closely. The KSHITIJ E-4 10Yr Composite (1.1688%) is falling again, but could find Support near its previous low of 1.1343%.

Looking at all three above, if the Dollar does not lose its yield advantage soon, it will continue to strengthen.

DATA TODAY



22:30 GMT or 4:00 IST AU PMI
...Previous 47.30 ...Actual 46.5

23:50 GMT or 5:20 IST JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
...Expected 10 ...Previous 12 ...Actual 13

0:30 GMT or 6:00 IST CN PMI
...Expected 51.1 ...Previous 51.1 ...Actual 51.1

1:35 GMT or 7:05 IST JP PMI
...Expected 51.7 ...Previous 51.7 ...Actual 51.7

6:30 GMT or 12:00 IST IN PMI
...Previous 52.4

7:30 GMT or 13:00 IST CH PMI
...Expected 52.1 ...Previous 52.9

7:30 GMT or 13:00 IST EU PMI
...Expected n 50.5 ...Previous 50.7

8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK PMI
...Expected 52.6 ...Previous 52.5

9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU GDP
...Previous 0.70 %

14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US Manufacturing ISM
...Expected 58.6 ...Previous 59.0

12:15 GMT or 17:45 IST US ADP Emp
...Expected 206 K ...Previous 205 K


DATA YESTERDAY


UK Cons Conf
...Expected 0 ...Previous 1 ...Actual -1

JP Unemp
...Expected 3.8 % ...Previous 3.8 % ...Actual 3.5 %

RBI Repo Rate
...Previous 8.00 % ...Actual 8.00 %

RBI Reverse Repo Rate
...Previous 7.00 % ...Actual 7.00 %

RBI CRR
...Previous 4.00 % ...Actual 4.00 %

RBI MSF
...Previous 9.00 % ...Actual 9.00 %

EU Unemp
...Expected 11.50 % ...Previous 11.50 % ...Actual 11.50 %

CA GDP
...Previous 0.30 % ...Actual 0.00 % ...Expected 0.2%

US Case Schiller
...Expected 7.50 % ...Previous 8.1 % ...Actual 6.7 %

US Cons Conf
...Expected 92.20 ...Previous 93.40 ...Actual 86.0

 

 

 

 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 21 November 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105