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Eurozone Final PMIs Soft. U.K. Mfg PMI Weak. PMIs Elsewhere Lackluster at Best

Eurozone Final PMIs Soft. U.K. Mfg PMI Weak. PMIs Elsewhere Lackluster at Best
  October 1, 2014 9:30 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
Markets have moved  into a MIXED RISK posture. Today has seen generally soft manufacturing PMI data. Additional reports are due later from the U.S.  The EURUSD is trading lower on the day.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower. The 10-yr bund is 0.945%,  -0.4% bp. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.427% -1.3 bp. BOE Gov Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.502%, -0.4bp.The Psychological focus remains on 2.50%.
  • Far East equities were mixed. Hong Kong was closed for a holiday. Bourses in Europe are mixed. U.S. shares futures are lower..

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    • Eurozone final manufacturing PMIs remained mostly soft . German production has moved into contraction. Swiss PMI remained soft.
    • The U.K. Manufacturing PMI continued its strong negative divergence with the service sector.
    •  The Japanese Tankan Survey gained modestly to 13 from 12. The Japanese final Manufacturing PMI was flat while Chinese data were  steady. The Australian PMI fell further/ . 
    • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.  .
    • The September ADP private Jobs estimate is awaited.
    • Thursday sees the latest ECB Po;icy decision.
    • On Friday, a slew of Service PMIs are set for release along with the September U.S jobs report.  
    • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
    Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):

    12:15  US ADP Jobs Predictor of non-farm payrolls
    13:45  US MKT MFG PMI final Closely-followed production index
    14:00  US ISM MFG PMI Closely-followed production index
    14:00  US Construction  Economic activity measure
    01:30 AU Trade Important Trade measure
    08:28 GB Construction PMI Closely-followed production index
    11:45 EZ Europe Cntl Bank More ease to be signaled?
    12:30  US Initial Claims 300 293
    14:00  US Factory Orders Future production predictor
    07:55 DE SVC PMI final Key Service Sector index
    07:58  EZ SVC PMI final Key Service Sector index
    08:28 GB SVC PMI Key Service Sector index
    12:30  CA Trade External sector measure 
    12:30  US Payrolls Major Fed Target
    12:30  US Trade Impacts GDP calculation
    13:45  US Markit SVC PM Key Service Sector index
    14:00  US ISM SVC PMI Key Service Sector index
    Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
    01/10/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
    01/10/14 12:15 A US ADP Jobs 202 204
    01/10/14 13:45 A US MKT MFG PMI final 57.9 57.9
    01/10/14 14:00 A US ISM MFG PMI 58 59
    01/10/14 14:00 A US Construction Mar 0.40% 1.80%
    01/10/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a -4.3
    01/10/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a -0.4
    01/10/14 14:30 A US EIA Distillate mn n/a 0.82
    01/10/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 93.40%
    02/10/14 0:00 A THURSDAY
    02/10/14 1:30 A AU Trade A$bln n/a -1.359
    02/10/14 8:28 A GB Construction PMI 63.5 64
    02/10/14 11:45 A EZ Europe Cntl Bank 0.15% 0.15%
    02/10/14 12:30 A EZ ECB Webcast n/a n/a
    02/10/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 300 293
    02/10/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.44
    02/10/14 14:00 A US Factory Orders -9.00% 10.50%
    02/10/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 97
    03/10/14 0:00 A FRIDAY
    03/10/14 7:50 B FR SVC PMI final 49.4 49.4
    03/10/14 7:55 A DE SVC PMI final 54.6 54.9
    03/10/14 7:58 A EZ SVC PMI final 52.8 52.8
    03/10/14 8:28 A GB SVC PMI 59 60.5
    03/10/14 9:00 B EZ Retail Sls mm 0.10% -0.40%
    03/10/14 9:00 B EZ Retail Sls yy 0.70% 0.80%
    03/10/14 12:30 A CA Trade C$bn n/a 2.58
    03/10/14 12:30 A US Jobless % 6.10% 6.10%
    03/10/14 12:30 A US Payrolls 213 142
    03/10/14 12:30 A US Priv Jobs 200 134
    03/10/14 12:30 A US Trade USDb -41 -40.5
    03/10/14 13:45 A US Markit SVC PMI 58.5 58.5
    03/10/14 14:00 A US ISM SVC PMI 58.5 59.6
    03/10/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

    See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

    John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
    Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved


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