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Friday October 3, 2014 - 09:56:06 GMT
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September U.S. Jobs Seen Solid. Service PMIs Mostly Soft

September U.S. Jobs Seen Solid. Service PMIs Mostly Soft
  October 3, 2014 09:45 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
Early in Europe  markets are in a mixed Risk posture heading into U.S. September employment data and the weekend. U.S. NFP are seen gaining in excess of 200K in the month. The EURUSD is currently holding above the psychological 1.2600 line.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are higher.. The 10-yr bund is 0.930%,  +1.2% bp. Peripheral bond yields are mixed to higher.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.350% +0.7 bp. BOE Gov Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.439%, +0.3bp.The Psychological focus remains on 2.50%.
  • Far East equities closed higher as China returned form holidays... Bourses in Europe are mixed. U.S. shares futures are higher..

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


    HIGH IMPACT NEWS:  US- Employment, Service PMIs
    • The September U.S jobs report is due.  ADP Private Payroll data showed a gain of +213K in August vs. +202K in July. The forecast had no impact on street expectations for a gain in non-farm payrolls of about that amount.
    •  Eurozone final Service PMIs were mixed, but on balance  they were weaker than forecast. 
    • The September U.K. Service PMI fell short pf street estimates. Perhaps the economy might be slipping?  The GBPUSD is trading weaker.
    • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
    Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):

    FRIDAY
    07:55 DE SVC PMI final Key Service Sector index
    07:58  EZ SVC PMI final Key Service Sector index
    08:28 GB SVC PMI Key Service Sector index
    12:30  CA Trade External sector measure 
    12:30  US Payrolls Major Fed Target
    12:30  US Trade Impacts GDP calculation
    13:45  US Markit SVC PM Key Service Sector index
    14:00  US ISM SVC PMI Key Service Sector index
    FOREX CALENDAR
    Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
    03/10/14 12:30 A CA Trade C$bn n/a 2.58
    03/10/14 12:30 A US Jobless % 6.10% 6.10%
    03/10/14 12:30 A US Payrolls 213 142
    03/10/14 12:30 A US Priv Jobs 200 134
    03/10/14 12:30 A US Trade USDb -41 -40.5
    03/10/14 13:45 A US Markit SVC PMI 58.5 58.5
    03/10/14 14:00 A US ISM SVC PMI 58.5 59.6
    03/10/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a
    05/10/14 13:00 AU/NZ Clocks +1hr n/a n/a
     


    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

    See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.



    John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of Global-View.com. He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
    Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved

     

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    Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

    Thu 16 Nov
    01:30 AU- Employment
    09:30 GB- Retail Sales
    10:00 EZ- final HICP
    14:15 US- Industrial Production
    Fri 17 Nov
    13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
    13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

    Forex Trading Outlook


    Potential Trading Opportunities


    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



    John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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