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Friday October 3, 2014 - 10:39:36 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: European equities rebound slightly, peripheral yields remain near record lows as traders assess Draghi's comments; US payrolls data in focus

Fri, 03 Oct 2014 5:17 AM EST

- Euro Zone Services PMI generally below ests and lower m/m (in line with the manufacturing PMI data)
- UK Sept Services PMI declines m/m (in line with manufacturing PMI data) as probabilities for an early BoE rate hike have already been scaled back
- Core bonds yields trade generally higher amid equity gains and ahead of US payrolls report; Peripheral spreads tighten (yields remain near record lows) amid weak PMI data, as dealers continue to assess the ECB's ABS related comments (some analysts are stilling calling for QE)
- USD generally firmer, Yen weaker ahead of US payrolls data as 3-month and 1-yr JGB yields traded in negative territory following BoJ purchases
- European equity markets rise following the sharp losses on Thursday's session, but only slight rebound amongst the peripheral banks
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng rebounds from more than 1% losses amid reports that protestors may talk to government officials
- (HK) Hong Kong Chief Executive: No plans to clear out protesters surrounding government offices
- Gold declines ahead of US payrolls data
-(CZ) Czech Central Bank minutes: Economy is beginning to push inflation upwards

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (UK) SEPT SERVICES PMI: 58.7 V 59.0E (three month low)
- (EU) EURO ZONE SEPT FINAL SERVICES PMI: 52.4 V 52.8E (14th straight month of growth)
- (DE) GERMANY SEPT FINAL SERVICES PMI: 55.7 V 55.4E (15th month of expansion)
- (FR) FRANCE SEPT FINAL SERVICES PMI: 48.4 V 49.4E (confirms first contraction in three months)
- (IT) ITALY SEPT SERVICES PMI: 48.8 V 49.6E (second consecutive contraction, lowest since January)
- (ES) SPAIN SEPT SERVICES PMI: 55.8 V 57.0E (lowest since June, 11th straight expansion)
- (EU) EURO ZONE AUG RETAIL SALES M/M: 1.2% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.9% V 0.7%E
- (SE) SWEDEN AUG INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -0.2% V 1.0%E; Y/Y: -2.4% V -1.3%E
- (TR) TURKEY SEPT CPI M/M: 0.1% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 8.9% V 9.4%E; CPI CORE INDEX Y/Y: 9.3% V 9.6%E

Fixed Income
- (EU) Potential Rating Agency commentary on European sovereigns on Friday Oct 3rd: Fitch may comment on Turkey
- (IT) Italy may use state guarantees to support ECB's Draghi ABS plan - press

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.6%, FTSE 100 +0.8% at 6,499, DAX closed, CAC-40 +0.7% at 4,270, IBEX-35 +1% at 10,520, FTSE MIB +0.9% at 20,081, SMI -0.1% at 8,642, S&P 500 Futures +0.5% at 1,948]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open higher following sharp losses on Thursday, UK homebuilder Miller Homes cancels IPO or market conditions, EasyJet raises outlook

By Sector
Energy [Vestas Wind VWS.DK -5% (order cancellation in Brazil)
Consumer Discretionary [EasyJet EZJ.UK +5% (raised outlook), Debenhams DEB.UK +2% (Sports Direct raised stake)]
Technology [Renishaw RSW.UK +8% (upbeat outlook)]
Financials [UBS UBSN.CH -1.5% (concerns related to French tax probe)]
Stoxx50 sectors [Technology +1.2%, Consumer Cyclical +0.7%, Industrials +0.7%, Basic Materials +0.7%, Telecom +0.5%, Financials +0.5%, Energy +0.5%, Utilities +0.4%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.3%]

Currencies/Fixed Income:

- The USD is generally strong headed into the Sep US Non-Farm payroll data later today. Mixed-to-weak Service PMIs out of several EU nations had little effect on the EUR.
- USD/SEK The Krona is lower after Swedish Aug Industrial Production came in below expectations
- USD/RUB: Traded higher near 39.75. The rouble again weakened to 44.40 level of automatic Central bank interventions against the dollar-euro basket /outside band
- USD/JPY: Traded slightly higher to 109.00 after comments from BoJ Gov Kuroda that a weak Yen won't cause problems if it is reflective of fundamentals. Later in the session the Yen strengthen to trade at 108.70 against the dollar

**Looking Ahead***
-06:00 (EU) ECB Announcement related to LTRO repayments: 4.5Be
- 06:05 (UK) DMO to sell combined in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (IN) Weekly India Forex reserves data
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces specific bonds to be issued in upcoming auction
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Sept Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: 215Ke v +142K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: 210Ke v +134K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: 15Ke v 0K prior
- 08:30 (US) Sept Unemployment Rate: 6.1e v 6.1% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 12.0% prior; Change in Household Employment: No est v +16K prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: No est v 62.8% prior
- 08:30 (US) Sept Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 2.1% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.5e v 34.5 prior
- 08:30 (US) Aug Trade Balance: No est v -$40.5B prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Aug Int'l Merchandise Trade (CAD): No est v 2.6B prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 89.7 prior
- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Services PMI: No est v 49.2 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 49.6 prior
- 09:45 (US) Sept Final Markit Services PMI: No est v ## prelim; Composite PMI: No est v ## prelim
- 10:00 (US) Sept ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: No est v 59.6 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Sept PPI M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.0% prior


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 15 Oct 2018
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
Tue 16 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
Wed 17 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 09:00 EZ- Final HICP
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
Thu 18 Oct 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 19 OCt 2018
AA 12:30 CA- CPI/ Retail Sales

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