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Monday October 6, 2014 - 10:58:38 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: USD consolidates its recent gains

Mon, 06 Oct 2014 5:15 AM EST

- Brazil Electoral Court confirms Rousseff to face Neves in second-round Presidential run-off on Oct 26th
- IMF and World Bank annual meetings poised to cut GDP forecasts for China, Russia and Germany
- German factory orders highlights the weakness in EMU
- Criticism of Draghi's policy said to be mounting

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (DE) Germany Aug Factory Orders M/M: -5.7% v -2.5%e; Y/Y: -1.3% v +2.6%e
- (CZ) Czech Aug Retail Sales Y/Y: 2.7% v 3.4%e
- (AT) Austria Sept Wholesale Price Index M/M: +0.2% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: -1.7% v -1.6% prior
- (CH) SNB Sight Deposits for Week Ended Oct 3rd (CHF): 310.4B v 310.1B prior
- (EU) ECB 117M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 150M prior; 30.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 23.9B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (DE) Germany Sept Construction PMI: 50.0 v 47.7 prior
- (UK) Sept New Car Registrations Y/Y: 5.6% v 9.4% prior (31st straight monthly rise)
- (EU) Euro Zone Sept Retail PMI: 44.8 v 45.8 prior
- (EU) Italy Sept Retail PMI: 45.4 v 40.8 prior
- (EU) France Sept Retail PMI: 41.8 v 45.5 prior
- (EU) Germany Sept Retail PMI: 47.1 v 49.4 prior
- (TW) Taiwan Sept Foreign Reserves: $420.7B v $423.1B prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Oct Sentix Investor Confidence: -13.7 v -11.0e (2nd straight negative reading)

Fixed Income:
- None seen

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.7%
, FTSE 100 +0.4% at 6,555, DAX +1.2% at 9,312, CAC-40 +0.4% at 4,300, IBEX-35 +1.1% at 10,694, FTSE MIB +0.2% at 20,265, SMI +0.4% at 8,729, S&P 500 Futures +0.3% at 1,968]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity markets open higher amid positive leads from the US and reports of easing protests in Hong Kong (Spain's IBEX-35 outperforms), Germany's DAX rises sharply after being closed on Friday for a holiday

By Sector
- Energy
[Petroceltic PCI.UK +21% (takeover offer)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Euro Disney EDL.FR -14% (rights offering)]
- Telecom [Portugal Telecom PTC.PT +3% (takeover speculation)]
- Financials [Deutsche Bank DBK.DE +2% (speculation related to Q3 earnings)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Telecom +1.3%, Basic Materials +1.3%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +1%, Consumer Cyclical +0.8%, Financials +0.5%, Technology +0.3%, Energy +0.3%, Utilities +0.2%; Industrials -0.1%]

- ECB's Jazbec
(Slovenia) reiterated Council view that ECB policies needed to be supported by national reforms
- Greece Dep Fin Min Staikouras stated that it would achieve its 2014 fiscal targets and aim for primary budget surplus of 2.9% in 2015 at 5.4B. To project 2014 GDP growth of 0.6% (would be first growth in six years) and forecasted 2015 GDP growth of 2.9%
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Deputy Gov Jansson stated that its top priority was getting inflation to rise. The case that inflation would accelerate was 'pretty heavy' and added that the SEK currency (Krona) must not rise if CPI was to rise
- Poland Fin Min Szcurek expected 2015 general govt deficit to improve to 2.6-2.7% area from 3.4% this year
- Catalonia Mas' sister party (UDC) said not to back independence referendum on Nov 9th
- South Africa President Zuma confirmed that Central Bank gov Marcus to step down on Nov 8th and to be succeeded by Kganyago
- Japan Fin Min Aso: JPY currency between 108-109 against USD was not particularly weak; pair back at pre-Lehman levels
- Japan PM Abe reiterated view of both negative and positive aspects for a weak JPY currency (yen)
- Indonesia Central Bank Gov Martowardojo: Will do measured FX interventions to keep IDR currency (Rupiah) in healthy range

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The economic data continued to be weak for Europe and suggested further downside risks for EUR currency. The Euro did consolidate in the session. The 1.24 level is a key psychological point for the EUR/USD pair. This is the level where back in July 2012 ECB chief Draghi made his famous speech that he would do everything to defend the Euro
- The GBP/USD remained below the 1.60 level in the session. The pair saw little reaction to comments from UK Business Sec Cable noting the GBP might be overvalued by as much as 10-15% on trade weighted basis
- The South African Rand firmed up after President Zuma named a new central bank gov. The USD/ZAR traded below 11.27 with rand firmer by 0.5% in the session

Political/In the Papers:
- (FR) EU said to be preparing to reject France 2015 budget
- (EU) ECB's Weidmann: Reiterates concerns over latest ECB asset purchase plan - German press
- (EU) ECB's Praet: TLTRO program and the ABS, covered bond purchases will be sizeable; precise size dependent on impact; Weaker EUR and low oil prices are balancing themselves out
- (EU) IFO president Sinn: EMU could face a decade of economic stagnation or the destruction of the Euro if countries such as France do not implement reforms
- (JP) Japan Econ Min Amari: Growing "a little concerned" about the strength of recovery in Japan

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CN) China Premier Li Keqiang in Europe this week (Russia, Germany and Italy)
- (EU) EU Energy Ministers hold Informal Meeting in Milan
- (FR) OECD International Economic Forum on Africa
- (PT) Central Banks of Portuguese-Speaking Countries meet in Lisbon
- (PT) EU's Barroso with Portugal PM Coelho at Conference in Lisbon
- 05:30 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell 3-month and 9-month bills
- 05:30 (UK) BOE published consultations on bank oversight
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Sept Consumer Confidence: No est v 87.1 prior
- 07:00 (DE) German Parliament Committee Holds Hearing on Banking Union
- 07:20 (UK) Business Sec Cable speaks at Liberal Democrat Conference
- 07:00 (EU) ESM's Regling testifies on banking union
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Aug Economic Activity Index M/M: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 0.6%e v 0.9% prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 6.6-7.8B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Leading Indicators M/M: No est v 0.1 prior
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 09:45 (UK) BOE reverse auction; to purchase 1.6B in 3-7 year Gilts (residual)
- 10:00 (CA) Canada Sept Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally Adj): 52.5e v 50.9 prior; PMI Unadj: No est v 49.1 prior
- 10:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Vehicle Production: No est v 265.9K prior; Vehicle Sales: No est v 272.5K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 31.7K prior
10:10 (MX) Mexico Sept Vehicle Production: No est v 271.4K prior; Vehicle Domestic Sales: No est v 103.9K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 226.8K prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.4-1.7B in bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $48B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 16:00 (US) Crop Condition Report
- 20:30 (US) Fed's George on US economy in NM
- 21:30 (AU) RBA Interest Rate Decision; Expected to leave Cash Target rate unchanged at 2.50%


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