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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Diverging rhetoric from Japan on Yen currency weakness; Weak German data weighs on equities


Tue, 07 Oct 2014 5:23 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- No surprises in Far East Rate decision; bot RBA and BOJ keep policy steady; but central banks seem to up rhetoric on the FX front
- German Aug industrial production came in much weaker than expected
- Ukraine crisis weighs on emerging Europe data; Czech industrial output falls for first time in 14 months while Hungary Industrial production registers its largest MoM decline in four years
- Spanish nurse becomes first person to contract Ebola outside Africa

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (MY) Malaysia Aug Trade Balance (MYR): 3.9B v 5.7Be; Exports Y/Y: +1.7% v -1.4%e; Imports Y/Y: 7.6% v 0.4%e
- (JP) Japan Aug Preliminary Leading Indicator CI: 104.0 v 104.0e; Coincident Index: 108.5 v 108.6e
- (IN) India Sept Services PMI: 51.6 v 50.6 prior; Composite PMI: 51.8 v 51.6 prior
- (DE) Germany Aug Industrial Production M/M: -4.0% v -1.5%e; Y/Y: -2.8% v -0.5%e
- (ZA) South Africa Sept Gross Reserves: $49.1B v $49.5Be; Net Reserves: $43.3B v $44.0Be
- (FR) France Aug YTD Budget Balance: -94.1B v -84.1B prior
- (CH) Swiss Sept Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 462.2B v 457.5Be
- (HU) Hungary Aug Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: -5.7% v +1.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.9% v 12.2%e
- (CZ) Czech Aug National Trade Balance (CZK): 1.5B v 6.0Be
- (CZ) Czech Aug Industrial Output Y/Y: -5.2% v +1.0%e; Construction Output Y/Y: -0.9% v -3.7% prior
- (IL) Israel Sept Foreign Currency Balance: $86.2B v $87.6B prior
- (PH) Philippines Sept Foreign Reserves: $80.4B v $80.8B prior
- (EU) ECB 42M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 117.0M prior; 45.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 30.4B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) Swiss Sept CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v 0.0%e
- (CH) Swiss Sept CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v -0.1%e
- (CH) Swiss Aug Real Retail Sales Y/Y: +1.9% v -0.3% prior
- (SE) Sweden Aug Household Consumption M/M: % v 1.5%e; Y/Y: % v 3.0%e
- (SE) Sweden Sept Budget Balance (SEK): B v 11.7B prior
- (TW) Taiwan Sept Trade Balance: $ v $3.4Be; Exports Y/Y: % v 8.4%e; Imports Y/Y: % v 3.9%e
- (NO) Norway Aug Industrial Production M/M: -0.6% v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: +2.3% v -2.8% prior
- (NO) Norway Aug Manufacturing Production M/M: +1.0% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 5.2% v -2.9% prior
- (CZ) Czech Sept International Reserves: $54.8B v $57.0B prior
- (UK) Aug Industrial Production M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.6%e
- (UK) Aug Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.9% v 3.4%e

- (GR) Greece July Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 1.5% v 0.4% prior
- (SG) Singapore Sept Foreign Reserves: $266.1B v $273.3B prior
- (CY) Cyprus Sept CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.6% v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.0% v 08% prior

Fixed Income:
- (PH) Philippines sold total PHP20B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) opened its book to sell 5-year Inflation-linked bonds; guidance seen at mid-60s bps to 2019 bono
- (NO) Norway sold NOK3.0B vs. NOK 3.0B indicated in 3% 2024 bonds; Avg Yield: 2.24% v 2.38% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.08x
- (AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) sold 1.1B vs. 1.1B indicated in 1.65% 2024 RAGB Bonds; Avg Yield: 1.087% v 1.178% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.08x v 2.46x prior
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.35B in 2037, 2041 and 2044 Bonds
- (EU) ECB allotted 84.2B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.05% vs. 90.0Be

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities***
Indices [Stoxx50 -1.1%,
FTSE 100 -0.8% at 6,513, DAX -1.0% at 9,117, CAC-40 -1.1% at 4,241, IBEX-35 -1.2% at 10,511, FTSE MIB -0.6% at 20,002, SMI -1.5% at 8,595, S&P 500 Futures -0.5% at 1,946]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity markets open lower after Aug German industrial production data missed estimates. Airlines and travel related stocks were lower on the session after the first case of Ebola to originate outside of Africa was reported in Spain. Basic materials stocks were higher after Rio rebuffed a potential merger with Glencore.

By Sector
- Energy
[Cairn Energy CNE.UK +9.9% (oil discovery), Neste Oil NES1V.FI -1.5% (restructuring)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Tesco TSCO.UK +3.2% (Said to ask commercial director Grace to resign)]
- Industrials [Yara YAR.NO -1.1% (CEO resigns)]
- Technology [Wirecard WDI.DE +0.7% (raises guidance), Spirent SPT.UK -19% (lowers guidance)]
- Materials [Glencore GLEN.UK -0.3%, Rio Tinto RIO.AU +5.3% (Rio rejects merger with Glencore, Glencore remains open to new approach)]

***Speakers***
- France Fin Min Sapin
stated that the EU Commission could not refuse a budget and could only give recommendations. Says EU Commission had yet to receive the French 2015 draft budget
- France Budget Min Eckert stated that 2015 budget in line with plan presented to EU Commission back in April. Govt could not further cut spending or increase taxes due to current economic situation
- Bundesbank's Dombret stated that he saw a modest trend of improvement in Germany economy but warned on the ECB ABS purchase plan that the danger of aberrations with asset prices shouldn't be underestimated'
- BOE Q3 Credit Condition Survey moted that mortgage availability fell to its lowest level since 208 as lenders grew more pessimistic about the outlook for home prices and less willing to take on risks
- BOJ Gov Kuroda post rate decision press conference noted that the virtuous cycle of economic activity continued to operate firmly although the export sector had weakened. Moderate economic recovery continued although domestic economy was showing some weakness from recent sales tax hike and poor weather. Consumer confidence was solid. Sales tax impact on consumption was easing expect in auto and durable sectors. BOJ would make adjustments to policy as needed. He saw Q3 GDP being positive following the contraction registered in Q2
- Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov Lee stated that Korean economy 2014 GDP might be less than 3.8% target

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Dealers noted some divergence emerging in Japan on the currency front.
The BoJ reiterated its desire for a weaker currency and suggested that recent weakness was not hurting the economy, government officials were now starting to take a different line. The JPY firmed just ahead of the European morning as BOJ left its policy unchanged. The move was preceded by comments by Japan PM Abe that a weak yen hurt domestic households and small businesses. The comments came after BOJ Gov Kuroda was summoned to parliament while the BOJ meeting was underway and hinted that policy would be unchanged with no new stimulus. The USD/JPY fell from its Asian session high of 109.20 to test below 108.50 area.
- AUD remained under renewed pressure following the RBA meeting. The RBA left policy unchanged as expected, but interestingly continued to point to AUD currency as overvalued despite the recent sharp decline

Political/In the Papers:
- (IT) Italy Govt plans confidence vote regarding reforms for the labor market
- BOJ member Kiuchi again proposes 2% inflation target be achieved in longer-term; voted down by 8-1; member Shirai disagreed with description of inflation expectations

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (ID) Indonesia Central Bank (BI) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at 7.50%
- IMF to update its World Economic Outlook (WEO)
- (IL) Israel Fin Min Lapid to present 2015 budget to Cabinet
- (IT) Bank of Italy (BOI) Balance-Sheet Aggregates
- (RU) Russia Sept Official Reserve Assets: $455.8Be v $465.2B prior
- (SI) Slovenia Debt Agency to sell 3-month. 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Sept SACCI Business Confidence: No est v 89.0 prior
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-month Bills
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 2.25B in Jan 3.5% 2045 Gilts

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Aug Industrial Production M/M: no est v 11.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 17.5% prior
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell 1.0B in 3-month Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Finance Ministry decides whether to hold weekly OFZ Bond auction (held Wed if planned)
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Sept FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.6% prior
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Sept Trade Balance: $250.0Me v $356.0M prior; Total Exports: No est v $6.1B prior; Total Imports: No est v 5.7B prior; Copper Exports: No est v $3.1B prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Sept Official Reserves: No est v $102.0B prior
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Aug Real Wage M/M: No est v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.4% prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Aug Building Permits M/M: -6.5%e v +11.8% prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (PT) ECB's Costa (Portugal) speaks at Conference on Auditing, Governance
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
IMF
- 09:45 (UK) BOE reverse auction; to purchase 1.6B in 15+ year gilts (residual)
- 10:00 (HU) Hungary Sept YTD Budget Balance (HUF): No est v -858.8B prior
- 10:00 (UK) Sept NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.6% prior
- 10:00 (US) Aug JOLTS Job Openings: 4.70Me v 4.673M prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 10:00 (US) Oct IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: No est v 45.2 prior
- 10:30 (CA) Canada to sell 3-month. 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 10:30 (UK) DMO announces size of upcoming 0.125% 2024 Gilt
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.25-0.35B in bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (US) DOE Short-Term Crude Outlook
- 12:30 (MX) Mexico to sell 5-year and 10-year bonds
- 13:00 (US) (US) Treasury to sell $27B in 3-Year Notes
- 13:20 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speaks on Monetary Policy in South Dakota
- 14:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at Berlin Gala for James Baker III
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speaks in South Dakota
- 15:00 (US) Fed's Dudley speaks in Troy, New York on the Economy
- 15:00 (US) Aug Consumer Credit: $20.0Be v $26.0B prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 16:30 (US) Former Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks at World Business Forum
- 19:01 (UK) Sept BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y: no est v -1.6% prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Aug Current Account Balance: 200.0Be v 416.7B prior; Adj Current Account: 186.6Be v 99.3B prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Aug Trade Balance: -770.7Be v -828.1B prior
- 21:45 (CN) China HSBC Services PMI: No est v 54.1 prio
r; Composite PMI: no est v 52.8 prior
- (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists



 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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