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Tuesday October 7, 2014 - 15:43:09 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: IMF Cuts World Growth Outlook

Tue, 07 Oct 2014 11:23 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (ID) Indonesia Central Bank left its Reference Rate unchanged at 7.50%, as expected
- (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales w/e Oct 3rd: w/w: +0.1%; y/y: +3.9%
- (CA) Canada Aug Building Permits M/M: -27.3% v -6.5%e
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Oct 3rd: +5.4% y/y, Sept MTD: -0.3% m/m; Sept MTD +4.4% y/y
- (UK) Sept NIESR GDP Estimate: 0.7% v 0.6% prior
- (US) Aug JOLTS Job Openings: 4.84M v 4.70Me
- (US) Oct IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 45.2 v 45.2 prior

Europe's woes are only getting worse, as today's weak Germany August industrial production data echoed yesterday's terrible factory orders. European indices are looking to close at or near their lows, while gold, bonds and the JPY are surging. The 10-year UST yield has dropped to 2.378%, its lowest levels ince early September and spot gold is firmly back above $1,200. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.87%, the S&P500 is down 0.69% and the Nasdaq is down 0.77%.

The IMF cuts its 2014 global growth forecast to from +3.4% to +3.3% and its 2015 forecast from +4.0% to +3.8%, citing eurozone recession risks and emerging market slowdown. The outlook for the global economy has darkened and the IMF sees a four-in-10 chance the eurozone will slide into its third recession since the financial crisis. The IMF maintained its China 2014 GDP forecast at +7.4% (nearly in line with China's official 7.5% forecast), and raised the US 2014 forecast from +1.7% to +2.2%.

The JOLTS report, one of Fed Chair Yellen's favorite gauges of labor market health, was mixed in August. The number of job openings rose 5%, to the highest level since early 2001, but labor market turnover slowed and the number of quits fell nearly 3%. The latter decline reflected a reversal of the July increase, leaving the level of quits roughly equal to its average over the first six months of the year (but still up 5% y/y). Worker mobility is a close indicator of possible wage growth.

Samsung Electronics disclosed preliminary third quarter results last night and it wasn't pretty. Samsung warned operating profits would fall 60% y/y as the company's smartphone sector struggles to cope with increased competition. Sales guidance was down more than 20% y/y. Mobile devices are the key driver of the company's profits, and its second quarter profit fell 20% y/y for much the same reasons.

There has been a flurry of headlines over recent days regarding a possible Glencore offer to merge with Rio Tinto. This morning Glencore confirmed that in July it made an informal enquiry by telephone to Rio, seeking to gauge whether there might be any interest in investigating some form of merger, but also said it no longer intends to pursue any sort of deal. Rio Tinto had said it was not interested in pursuing discussions. Under UK law, Glencore cannot make another approach for six months.

Shares of General Motors fell nearly 3% this morning after Morgan Stanley cut its price target. Analysts at the firm said they would not wait for GM to issue a profit warning, noting that Ford already cut its outlook and that GM would have to as well. Ford's reduced outlook was based on increased macro pressure in Russia, Latin America, FX and quality-related issues, all of which impact GM as well.

SodaStream reported preliminary third quarter sales and profits that fell short of expectations. The company cited lower-than-expected demand for its soda makers and flavors and its inability to attract new users beyond its established base. Shares of SODA are down 20%, while Keurig Green Mountain is up 5%. GMCR will reportedly release its SodaStream competitor later this fall.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (US) DOE Short-Term Crude Outlook
- 13:00 (US) (US) Treasury to sell $27B in 3-Year Notes
- 13:30 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speaks on Monetary Policy in South Dakota
- 15:00 (US) Fed's Dudley speaks in Troy, New York on the Economy
- 15:00 (US) Aug Consumer Credit: $20.0Be v $26.0B prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Aug Current Account Balance: 200.0Be v 416.7B prior; Adj Current Account: 186.6Be v 99.3B prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Aug Trade Balance: -770.7Be v -828.1B prior
- 21:45 (CN) China HSBC Services PMI: No est v 54.1 prior; Composite PMI: no est v 52.8 prior


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