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RISK OFF: Equities Continue to Correct. EURUSD Higher. Another German Data Miss

RISK OFF: Equities Continue to Correct. EURUSD Higher. Another German Data Miss
  October 8, 2014 00:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
Markets remain in a  RISK-OFF posture heading into the European close.  Equity markets continue to sell off. August German industrial output data earlier today were very weak. Will more sot data will cause the ECB to ease?. EURUSD is holding above1.2600.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mixed. The 10-yr bund is 0.912% +0.80% bp. Peripheral bond yields are mixed.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.287% -7.2 bp. BOE Gov Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.375%, -5.2bp.The Psychological focus remains on 2.50%.
  • Far East equities closed mixed.. Bourses in Europe are ending lower. U.S. shares are down.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS: No Major Releases
    • On Wednesday, the latest Fed Minutes will be released.
    • The latest U.S. (August) JOLTS  Survey was stronger than expected. This is the preferred employment measure by Fed Chair Yellen and Bernanke before her..
    • German August Industrial Output Data were considerably weaker than expected. the data could l force additional  ECB ease. .
    • The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan both kept policy steady today. The RBA talked the Aussie dollar down once again.
    • U.K. Output data were flat and in line with street estimates. Swiss September CPI data fell yr/yr.
    • Thursday sees Australia employment data, the latest Bank of England policy decision and weekly U.S. jobless claims. On Friday, U.K. trade and Canadian employment data will be the featured releases.
    • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
    Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):

    17:00 A TRY 10-yr  auction
    18:00 A FRB Fed Minutes latest decision
    00:50 A JP BOJ Minutes
    01:30 A AU Employment major economic metric
    11:00 A GB Bank of England no rate change
    12:30 A US Initial Claims near frictional lows
    17:00  TRY 30-yr
    08:30 A GB  Trade key industrial measure
    12:30 A CA Employment key economic metric

    Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
    07/10/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
    08/10/14 2:00 A CN GDP yy 2Q14 7.50% 7.50%
    08/10/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
    08/10/14 14:30 C US EIA Crude mn n/a -1.4
    08/10/14 14:30 C US EIA Gasoline mn n/a -1.836
    08/10/14 14:30 C US EIA Distillate mn n/a -2.9
    08/10/14 14:30 C US EIA Cap Util n/a 89.80%
    08/10/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 10-yr n/a n/a
    08/10/14 18:00 A FRB Fed Minutes n/a n/a
    09/10/14 0:00 A THURSDAY
    09/10/14 0:50 A JP BOJ Minutes n/a n/a
    09/10/14 1:30 A AU % Jobless 6.20% 6.10%
    09/10/14 1:30 A AU Payrolls -30 14.3
    09/10/14 7:00 B DE Trade eur bn 17.7 22.2
    09/10/14 11:00 A GB Bank of England 0.50% 0.50%
    09/10/14 11:00 A GB QE GBP bn 375 375
    09/10/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 295 287
    09/10/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.398
    09/10/14 14:00 B US Wholesale Inventories 0.3 0.2
    09/10/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 112
    09/10/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 30-yr n/a n/a
    10/10/14 0:00 A FRIDAY
    10/10/14 8:30 A GB Visible Trade -9.4 -10.19
    10/10/14 8:30 A GB Trade- Non-EU -4 -4.35
    10/10/14 12:30 A CA Jobless % 7.00% 7.00%
    10/10/14 12:30 A CA Payrolls n/a -11
    10/10/14 12:30 A CA F/T Jobs n/a -2.3
    10/10/14 12:30 C US Imp Prices n/a -0.40%
    10/10/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

    See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

    John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
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