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Wednesday October 8, 2014 - 03:41:37 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 08-Oct-2014 -0341 GMT


The IMF’s World Economic Outlook predicted a lower global growth at 3.3% from earlier expectation of 3.7%. The global markets are not reacting well to this data and expectation of slow growth for the next 5 years. Some of the markets are close to important supports.

Dow (16719.39, -1.60%) is back to the previous week’s low at 16675 and a break below this will reverse the uptrend in the short term and open the door to 16300 or even 16100-16000. Bulls must defend 16675 to survive in the near term. Dax (9086.21, -1.34%) closed below the long term channel at 9100, and now only 8880 may provide some kind of support. If bulls fail to defend 8880, a 10% cut may not be ruled out.

Shanghai (2366.34, +0.10%) made a new high at 2370 this morning. As long as it stays above 2325-15 now, expect it rising towards 2430-50. The Nikkei (15552.26, -1.47%) correction continues. The uptrend remains intact above 15300, but 16400 and finally 16800 must be broken above to resume the bullish momentum.

Nifty (7852.40, -1.17%) tested the lower boundary of our range of 7840-8050 but it may be broken on the downside now, opening up targets of 7750 and 7550.

Commodities are trading low and may continue to remain bearish this week.

Gold (1213.14) and Silver (17.23) are stable for now. Gold has risen from just above support near 1180 but we may expect a fall below 1180 in the coming weeks. For now the support may keep prices ranged for a few sessions. Silver may see a fall towards 16.5-16 in the coming weeks. Near term remains bearish.

Nymex WTI (88.41) is testing weekly support near current levels and if this holds we may see some ranged moves in the 88-92 region else a break below 88 may push it further towards 85-80 in the near term. Brent (91.6) has fallen as well and may steadily target support near 90-88.5 in the near term. Near term trend is down.

Copper (3.0290) remains ranged in the 3.00-3.07 region and has fallen after a sharp rise yeserday. As said earlier, unless a break on either side is seen further direction is unclear. If the support at 3 holds we may see a steady bounce to 3.10 else a fall to 2.95-2.90 on the downside is possible. Need to see which direction it takes.


The Tweezer Top/bottom pattern discussed yesterday already produced some good moves. Dollar Index (85.87) has cooled off a bit and the poor German data failed to clobber the Euro this time but the technicals need much more improvement to get in favor of the Majors.

Euro (1.2630) is yet to break above 1.2715 to signal an extended pause and that still keeps it under immediate bearish risk.

Dollar-Yen (108.36) is forming a pattern looking like an Expanding Triangle. In that case, the low of 107.75 may hold for the rest of the week and another bounce can be expected. The Euro-Yen Cross (136.86) structure has weakened considerably but a small bounce to 138.50-139.00 can’t be ruled out. Major support comes at 136.30-135.70.

The Pound (1.6058) suffered most in the last few sessions as it tested sub-1.60 levels. Some positive divergence is visible but only a break above 1.62 may validate that signal to produce a bounce towards 1.64.

Aussie (0.8778) tested our initial resistance at 0.8825, above which 0.89 waits. It has bounced from the 4-year support of 0.8660 and may take a pause for a few sessions before falling again.

Dollar-Rupee (61.4350) found support from our 61.30 and as long as the price stays above 61.30, higher levels can’t be ruled out.

Seems the IMF forecast downgrade has spooked the markets a bit bad. US Dollar Yield advantage has reduced further, but could pick up again after a few days.

Sharp dip in the US 10Yr (2.36%) from 2.42% on Monday. The 30Yr (3.06%) and 5Yr (1.64%) have also come down sharply from 3.13% and 1.69%. Look for further dip towards 3.0%, 2.30% and 1.60% on the 30, 10 and 5Yr bonds respectively. The big thing to watch will be if the 5Yr will bounce from the 1.60-1.55% region or not.

The German-US 2Yr Spread (-0.58%) has risen some more from the -0.62% earlier and this is reflected in the slightly stronger Euro (1.2634). But, there is good Resistance at -0.55%. This may well be tested, but is expected to hold and could push the Spread down again, putting pressure on the Euro again.

The US-Japan 10Yr spread (1.85%) has come down to test our Support of 1.85% now and could see a bounce back towards 1.90% and a bit higher in the coming days.

As expected, the Indo-US 10Yr Spread (6.10%) has risen from the 6.03% earlier and could be headed to our target of 6.15%. Or maybe there could be some Resistance near 6.13% also. It will be important for this Resistance to hold, else we may see a further rise towards 6.20%.


No major data release today.


RBA Meeting
...Previous 2.50 % ...Actual 2.50 % Expected 2.50 %







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