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Wednesday October 8, 2014 - 10:49:33 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Oil maintains soft tone over concerns that global economic outlook is worsening

Wed, 08 Oct 2014 5:22 AM EST

- Risk aversion maintains a foothold on sentiment as concerns that global economic outlook is worsening; Oil continues to probe lower
- Australia Stats Agency said to be revising its Aug job gains sharply lower
- UK Sept BRC Shop Price Index registers its 17th straight monthly decline (Y/Y: -1.8% v -1.6% prior)
- Japan Aug Adj Current Account registers its 5th straight surplus ( 186.6Be v 99.3B prior)
- (CN) China HSBC Services PMI: 53.5 v 54.1 prior
- Focus on Fed Sept Minutes with tone expected to be biased to the hawkish side

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (JP) Japan Sept Eco Watchers Current Survey: 47.4 v 48.5e; Outlook Survey: 48.7 v 50.4 prior
- (CH) Swiss Sept Unemployment Rate: 3.0% v 3.0%e; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 3.2% v 3.2%e
- (FR) Bank of France Sept Business Sentiment: 96 v 97e
- (UK) Sept Halifax House Prices M/M: 0.6% v 0.2%e; 3M/Y: 9.6% v 9.6%e
- (CZ) Czech Sept Unemployment Rate: 7.3% v 7.3%e

Fixed Income:
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) auction results were steady; it sold 1.138B vs. 875M indicated in 26-week Bills; Avg Yield: 2.00% v 2.00% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.67x v 2.5x prior

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.3%,
FTSE 100 -0.5% at 6,459, DAX -0.8% at 9,010, CAC-40 -0.4% at 4,192, IBEX-35 flat at 10,418, FTSE MIB -0.10% at 19,759, SMI -0.7% at 8,496, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 1,927]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower following the sharp losses seen on Tuesday and ahead of FOMC minutes, DAX underperforms as it again trades 10% below prior record high, German earnings worries (Gerresheimer, SAP), Air France profit warning and Ebola concerns weigh on airlines, Weaker copper prices weigh on mining sector, Alcoa reports earnings after US equity close, Lower oil prices weigh on energy companies

By Sector
- Technology
[SAP SAP.DE -1.5% (speculated hiring freeze)]
- Industrials [Gerresheimer GXI.DE -3% (cut outlook)]
- Consumer Discretionary [First Group FGP.UK -6% (lost contract), Air France AF.FR -4% (profit warning)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [London Mining LOND.UK -80% (financing concerns), Clariant CLN.CH -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Technology -1.3%, Basic Materials -0.4%,Industrials -0.3%, ;Utilities +0.9%, Consumer Cyclical +0.4%, Financials +0.3%Telecom +0.1%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.1%, Energy +0.1%]

- ECB's Constancio
(Portugal): ECB will significantly increase the balance sheet; about 400B of ABS stock and 600B of covered bonds qualifies for asset purchases. New measures to aim to promote credit flow into the real economy
- France said to be preparing a back-up plan for the 2015 budget in case the EU asks for additional concessions
- Bank of England (BOE) Q3 Credit Conditions Survey noted that after eight consecutive quarters of expansion, lenders reported that the availability of secured credit to households fell significantly in the three months to early-September.
- Norway govt released its 2015 Budget Proposal which planned to spend NOK164B of oil money in 2015 budget (Equivalent to 3% of oil fund value). It raised its 2014 Non-oil GDP from 1.9% to 2.2% but cut 2015 Non-oil GDP at 2.0% vs. 2.2% prior forecast
- Japan LDP ruling party lawmaker: BoJ needs to ease policy again to meet 2% inflation target as planned in FY15/16

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX markets were relatively quiet in Europe with a lack of key economic releases. The Asian session did see some nice price action in the JPY and AUD currencies. The main focus going forward today will be the released of the FOMC minutes with Fed timing key for the USD direction and trend
- The USD/JPY pair move back towards its Asian session of 107.80. The pair initially ,moved in late Asia after Japan LDP Min Kozo Yamamoto noted that yen could fall beyond the 120 level vs USD
- The AUD was weaker on press reports that Australia Stats Agency said to be revising its Aug job gains sharply lower

Political/In the Papers:
- (DE) German CDU's Fuchs: Plans are being discussed regarding measures to prevent recession in Germany; plans incl lowering mandatory pension contribution by 0.6 ppt
- (JP) Japan LDP Min Kozo Yamamoto: Yen could fall below 120 vs USD; sales tax hike should be delayed by 18 months

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CA) Canada's Public Policy Forum Summit on Pension Reform
- G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting
- (CH) Swiss Government Weekly Meeting
- EU leaders to meet in Milan to discuss employment
- (RU) Russia Sept Light Vehicle Car Sales Y/Y: -22%e v -26% prior
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 2.50%
- (RU) Russia to sell RUB10B in Aug 2023 OFZ Bonds
- 05:30 (DE) German Gov official Gabriel gives Speech on German Arms-Export Policy
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 4.0B in 0.25% Apr 2019 BOBL
- 05:30 -(PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to sell up to 1.0B in 4.8% Jun 2020 OT bonds

- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 2020 and 2025 bonds
- 06:00 (EU) OECD Aug Leading Indicator: No est v 100.5 prior
- 06:00 (MY) Malaysia Sept Foreign Reserves: No est v $131.5B prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 3rd: No est v 0.2% prior
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Sept CPI M/M: 0.7%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 4.8%e v 4.5% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.6%e v 0.4% prior
- 08:00 (PT) Bank of Portugal Autumn Economic Bulletin
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Sept IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.5%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 6.7%e v 6.5% prior
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank's Minutes
- 08:15 (CA) Canada Sept Housing Starts: 198.0Ke v 192.4K prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico July Gross Fixed Investment: 3.5%e v 2.2% prior
- 09:45 (UK) BOE reverse auction; to purchase 1.6B in 7-15 year Gilts (residual)
- 10:00 Poland Central Bank Gov Belka to hold post rate decision press conference
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Commodity Price Index M/M: No est v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.7% prior
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Weekly Currency Reserves
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 5-year Notes
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $21B in 10-Year Notes Reopening
- 14:00 (US) Fed Minutes from Sept. 16-17 FOMC Meeting
- 16:30 (US) Former Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on Global Economy in New York
- 20:00 (AU) Australia Oct Consumer Inflation Expectation Survey: No est v 3.5% prior
- 20:30 (AU) Australia Sept Employment Change: -30.0Ke v +121.0K prior; Unemployment Rate: 6.2%e v 6.1% prior
- 21:55 (AU) RBA's Ellis speaks at Conference


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