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Thursday October 9, 2014 - 04:10:59 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 09-Oct-2014 -0410 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
A dovish FOMC Minutes, concerned with the strength of growth, set fire on the markets as they bounced powerfully from the important supports as mentioned yesterday. The positive sentiment is visible in the Asian markets too.

The Dow (16994.22, +1.64%) bulls defended our support of 16675 in a fine fashion after the FOMC Minutes. But all these big moves remain insignificant noise only as long as the price action stays inside the range of 16650-17450. Only a breakout of this range will be meaningful. Dax (8995.33, -1.00%) extended the fall and reached closer to the support around 8880. The larger picture is deteriorating fast and the bulls will have to produce a bounce from either 8880 or 8790 to keep their minimum hope alive.

Shanghai (2387.23, +0.19%) stays on course to our target of 2430-50 and the bullish momentum remains intact above 2350. The Nikkei (15666.13, +0.45%) is still in a corrective mode. The uptrend remains intact above 15300, but 16400 and finally 16800 must be broken above to resume the bullish momentum.

Nifty (7842.70, -0.12%) broke 7840 on the downside to touch 7815 but if this index, along with BankNifty, manages to hold above yesterday’s lows, then a bounce to 7925-50 can be expected instead of our bearish expectations materializing.

COMMODITIES
Silver (17.435)is ranged in the 16.75-17.75 region since the past few sessions but no signal of a bullish reversal is seen unless a sustained break above 18-18.5 is seen. For now the 16.75-17.75 may continue for a few more sessions. A fall to 16.5-16 cannot be negated just now.

Gold (1223.54) has been rising since the last 3-sessions bouncing from just above crucial support near 1180. A break above 1226 may take it higher to 1240. This may be a short term correction as a reversal can only be confirmed after a break above 1250-1260. The inherent bearishness does not seem to have died out.

Nymex WTI (87.62) is undoubtedly under strong bear influence and is nearing immediate support near 85.9. The fall may extend towards 80-77 in the longer run last seen in June’12 but before that need to see if it bounces from 85.9-84 levels. Near term remains bearish.

Brent (91.58) saw an intra-day low of 90.57 and is trading higher today. It may test weekly support near 90-88.5 and may see a short correction towards 92 before falling again. Near term is bearish.

Copper (3.0230) is held well by support near 3.00. As said earlier, unless a break on either side of 3.00-3.07 is seen, further direction is unclear. If the support at 3 holds we may see a steady bounce to 3.10 else a fall to 2.95-2.90 on the downside is possible. Need to see which direction it takes.

 

FOREX
The dovish FOMC Minutes effectively screamed to the markets – risk on. And Dollar (85.27) crashed against nearly every currency, including the precious metals. Our Tweezer Top pattern has caught the top of Dollar Index and the bottoms of the Majors well.

Euro (1.2728) has finally managed to break above our resistance of 1.2715 to signal a real pause and an extension of the bounce to 1.2900-50 would not be surprising in the next few days.

Dollar-Yen (108.12) pattern looking like an Expanding Triangle. In that case, the low of 107.75 may hold for the rest of the week and another bounce can be expected. Major weakness comes below 107.75-50. The Euro-Yen Cross (137.58) has bounced as expected and a break above the old resistance of 138 may help it to rally to 138.50-139.00. Major support comes at 136.30-135.70.

The positive divergence in Pound (1.6172) produced a bounce close to 1.62 but the gain may be limited 1.63-1.64 in the near term as the larger structure has been damaged considerably.

Aussie (0.8862) is closer to our second target/resistance of 0.89 and the price action in the area of 0.8900-35 may determine the next course of action.

Dollar-Rupee (61.3975) may open much lower on the severe Dollar weakness against nearly every currency. The immediate bullish scenario is negated below 61.30 and now the supports of 61.05 and 60.85 will come into consideration.

INTEREST RATES
US Yields generally lower, close to testing important Supports. Further yield advantage loss to the US Dollar in the near term. Medium term may still favour Dollar.

Sharper than expected dip in the US 5Yr (1.56%) past our target of 1.60%. Need to see if there is a bounce back from this level or not. The 2Yr (0.45%) has come down further, belying our earlier expectations of a rise towards 0.65-0.70%. The 30Yr (3.06%) was quiet yesterday but can still test 3.00%. The 10Yr (2.32%) is close to testing our 2.30% target. Again, need to see whether the 30Yr and 10Yr will bounce from 3.00% and 2.30% or not. Failure to bounce might signal slower growth prospects ahead.

The Fed, to be noted, is also worried about a global growth slowdown now.

Sharp rise has been seen in the German-US 2Yr Spread (-0.518%) from the -0.58% yesterday. This has led to a good rise in the Euro to 1.2730. The US-Japan 10Yr spread (1.838%) has dipped below our hoped for support at 1.85%. If the fall sustains, we could see a test of 1.80-78%. Dollar-Yen (108.11) also continues to remain pressured on the downside for now.

The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.4075%) is testing an important Support but might not be able to break lower as the FII investment limit is almost exhausted. The Indo-US 10Yr Spread (6.08%) can still move up to 6.15%, especially if there is a bounce in the GOI.

DATA TODAY



1:30 GMT or 7:00 IST Australia Labour Force
...Expected 17.6 K ...Actual -29.7 K ...Previous 32.1 K

11:00 GMT or 16:30 IST BOE Mtg
...Previous 0.50 %

DATA YESTERDAY
No major data release yesterday.

 

 

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
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Fri 24 Nov
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09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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