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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Perceived dovish FOMC minutes continued to aid risk appetite in session; USD maintains soft tone


Thu, 09 Oct 2014 5:20 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- FOMC minutes perceived as dovish; Fed members concerned about overseas growth and strong USD (Fist time Fed has referenced USD in this cycle) and thus the USD experienced a corrective rebound
- (AU) Australia Sept Employment Change gives back all of its Aug gains (after revisions) (-29.7K v -30.0Ke)
- Numerous European 10-year yields hit record lows in session (Spain, Belgium, Finland and France)

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (JP) Japan Sept Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: 34.8% v 35.5% prior
- (DE) Germany Aug Current Account Balance: 10.3B v 13.8Be; Trade Balance: 14.1B v 17.7Be; Exports M/M: -5.8% v -4.0%e; Imports M/M: -1.3% v +0.9%e
- (FR) France Aug Trade Balance: -5.8B v -5.5Be
- (CZ) Czech Sept CPI M/M: % v -0.2%e; Y/Y:% v 0.9%e
- UN Foods and Agricultural Organization (FAO) Sept World Food Prices Y/Y: 191.5 v 196.6 prior (4-year low)
- (GR) Greece Sept CPI Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.3%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: -1.1% v -0.3%e (19th straight month of declines)
- (GR) Greece July Unemployment Rate: 26.4% v 26.8%e (lowest since Dec 2012)

Fixed Income:
- (IE) Decent Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA) auction
; sold 1.0B vs. 1.0B indicated in 3.4% Mar 2024 IGB bond; Avg Yield: 1.630% (record low) v 2.315% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.5x v 2.74x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities***
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.8%
, FTSE 100 +0.6% at 6,523, DAX +1% at 9,087, CAC-40 +0.6% at 4,195, IBEX-35 +0.6% at 10,397, FTSE MIB +0.4% at 19,723, SMI +0.6% at 8,573, S&P 500 Futures +0.2% at 1,967]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open sharply higher following FOMC minutes and ahead of Draghi comments, DAX outperforms despite sharp decline in Germany's Aug exports and gains in Bunds (BMW and Siemens supported by broker commentary), FTSE 100 lags on ex-dividends, Airlines generally have slight rebound, Gold miners supported by rise in gold prices, Weakness in European IPO market (Energy services firm Spie delays listing)

By Sector
- Technology
[Exact Holding EXACT.NL +15% (takeover offer)
- Consumer Discretionary [Hays HAS.UK (Q1 LFL fees +9%); N Brown Group BWNG.UK -7% (profit warning)
- Consumer Staples [Suedzucker SZU.DE -4% (cautious outlook)
- Industrials [Maersk MAERSKB.DK +2.5% (speculated approval of MSC shipping alliance), Wood Group WG.UK +2.5% (reaffirmed outlook), BMW BMW.DE +2% (broker commentary), Siemens SIE.DE +1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Healthcare [NicOx COX.FR +4% (distribution agreement), Galapagos GLPG.BE +3% (data presentation)
- Stoxx50 sectors [Industrials +1.5%, Technology +1.4%, Consumer Cyclical +0.9%, Basic Materials +0.8%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.8%, Energy +0.8% Telecom +0.7%, Financials +0.1%; Utilities -0.5%]

***Speakers***
- ECB Monthly Report
noted that its policy underpined the anchoring of inflation expectations (echoed Draghi post rate decision press conference)
- SNB's Danthine reiterated view that currency floor remained central policy tool and key for stability. Europe in recession is a big risk for Switzerland and that negative interest rates was a possibility but not part of baseline scenario
- Bavaria Fin Min Soeder: Wants federal govt to prevent the ECB from buying risky bond bundles
- German think-tank DIW cuts German 2014 and 2015 GDP forecasts. It now saw 2014 GDP growth at 1.3% (from 1.8% prior) and 2015 growth at 1.2% (from 2.0% prior)
- China PBOC official Wang Dan: To allow mainland China residents to invest in overseas stocks

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- USD saw some of its recent rally diminish after what was perceived as dovish FOMC minutes. Several members expressed concerns that the appreciation of USD would have a negative impact on exports and inflation
- The EUR/USD rose for the 4th straight day and hit a 2-week high at 1.2790 area while USD/JPY probed 3-week lows under 107.75
- Numerous European 10-year yields hit record lows in session (Spain, Belgium, Finland and France)

Political/In the Papers:
- (IT) Italy PM Renzi wins Senate confidence vote on labor reform proposal by 165-111 margin
- (RU) Russia parliament approves law allowing govt to seize foreign assets in Russia in response to "illegal sanctions" in first reading - press; Vote was 233 to 202
- (IN) India PM Modi said to give RBI govt veto power in meeting CPI goal. The veto power over new monetary policy council that would focus on price stability as main task.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (UK) House of Commons By-Elections in Clacton, Middleton & Heywood
- (MX) Mexico Sept ANTAD Same-Store Sales Y/Y: No est v 3.7% prior
- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Aug Total Mining Production M/M: 0.5%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: -5.6%e v -7.7% prior; Gold Production Y/Y: No est v -14.6% prior; Platinum Production Y/Y: No est v -45.2% prior
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 12-month Bills
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell Floating Bonds
- 06:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel meets with Poland PM Kopacz in Berlin
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Sept CPI M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.4% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Sept CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.6% prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rate unchanged at 0.50% and maintain Asset Purchase Target (APT) at 375B
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Aug Manufacturing Production M/M: +0.3%e v -3.6% prior; Y/Y: -3.6%e v -7.9% prior
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Oct 3rd: No est v $456.9B prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Oct IGP-M Inflation (1st Preview): 0.1%e v 0.3% prior
- 07:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank comments on Sept CPI data
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 295Ke v 287K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.41Me v 2.398M prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Aug New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.4% prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Sept CPI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 4.2%e v 4.2% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior
- 09:45 (US) Fed's Bullard speaks on Monetary Policy in St. Louis
- 10:00 (US) Aug Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 0.3%e v 0.7% prior

- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) ECB's Draghi speaks on Monetary Policy in Washington DC
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 30-Year Bond Reopening
- 15:40 (US) Fed's Williams Speaks on the Economy in Las Vegas

- 19:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at 3.50%
- 19:50 (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Sept. 3-4 meeting minutes
- 20:45 (AU) RBA's Edey Panel Participation at FINSIA Conference



 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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