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Friday October 10, 2014 - 03:39:02 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 10-Oct-2014 -0338 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
No particular reason for the fortune reversal overnight except a poor German Import-export data, which will affect the European markets more today. The Indian sentiment will largely depend of Infy result & slew of Inflation & IIP data.

The Dow (16659.25, -1.97%) has been violently trading for the last two weeks but the net change is close to nil as all the moves has been stuck in 16650-17100 in the last 7 sessions with no single day seeing a follow up move in the following session. A follow up move is required with a break below 16500 (modified support) before one can get truly bearish. Dax (9005.02, +0.11%) had a pause day closer to the support around 8880. The larger picture is deteriorating fast and the bulls will have to produce a bounce from either 8880 or 8790 to keep their minimum hope alive.

Shanghai (2385.26, +0.17%) stays on course to our target of 2430-50 and the bullish momentum remains intact above 2350. The Nikkei (15326.67, -0.98%) has weakened further on the back of a stronger Yen. If a bounce doesnít materialize immediately, the fall can extend towards 15000 or lower.

Nifty (7960.55, +1.50%) had achieved the bounce target of 7925-50 yesterday. But the global cues this morning may force it open lower and the opening hour or two may determine the immediate trend. Major support at 7895-75 must be held to keep the possibility of more rallies in the picture.

COMMODITIES
Silver (17.28) was pushed by the 21-day MA near 17.71 and is trading lower today. Bearishness still hovering around, we may see some ranged moves in the 16.75-17.75 region. As said earlier a sustained break above 18-18.5 is required for any signal of bullishness coming in. A fall to 16.5-16 in the coming weeks cannot be negated just now.

Gold (1221.21) has been rising since the last 4-sessions as expected while the support near 1180 holds well for now. But unless a break above 1250 is seen we may expect it to retest 1200-1180 in the coming weeks. The inherent bearishness does not seem to have died out just now.

Nymex WTI (84.28) has yet fallen again yesterday to test immediate support near 84. A break below could well take it towards 77.3 in the coming sessions. Strong bear influence persists for now. We may expect a bounce from further lower levels of 80-77.3. Near term is bearish.

Brent (88.60) saw an intra-day low of 88.11, breaking the support near 88.5. It needs to bounce from current levels else could see a danger of a sharp fall towards 80-75 levels. Near term trend remains down.

Copper (3.0125) has been tightly ranged in the 3-3.07 zone. The support near 3.00 is holding well for now. Some more whipsaw in the said region may be expected for a few sessions before determining further direction. As said earlier, while current support holds we may see a steady bounce to 3.10 else a fall to 2.95-2.90 on the downside is possible. Need to see which direction it takes.

 

FOREX
Dollar (85.57) had a retracement upwards with the Majors doing the opposite but the consolidation may not be over this soon. Perhaps the short term range has just been established for the next few sessions.

Euro (1.2692) has come off the high around 1.28 but the pause mode can run for a few more session. As long as it trades above 1.26, an extension of the bounce to 1.2900-50 would not be surprising.

Dollar-Yen (107.89) has negated the form of an Expanding Triangle. An Irregular Flat? That is a bullish scenario and in that case, a sharp bounce can be expected any time now. Major weakness comes below 107.75-50. The Euro-Yen Cross (136.95) has been rejected from exactly 138, our old resistance. A break above 138 or 136.30-135.70 will produce a trending move now.

The positive divergence in Pound (1.6116) produced a bounce close to 1.62 but the gain may be limited 1.63-1.64 in the near term as the larger structure has been damaged considerably.

Aussie (0.8763) crashed just touching our second target/resistance of 0.89 but just like the other Majors, the corrective bounce mode may not be over as long as it stays above 0.8740-00.

Dollar-Rupee (61.05) has held above our support of 60.85 yesterday and that remains the major support to watch out for. The intermediate bullish view would be in crisis on a break below 60.85. The possibility of the correction ending at 60.90-85, though with a lesser probability, canít be discarded completely.

INTEREST RATES
US Yields near important Supports, the 10-5Yr Spread may be tracing a Double Bottom. Something doesn't tie up on the German-US 10Yr Spread. Indian GOI may test 8.50% today.

US Yields are testing the important Support levels of 0.45%, 1.55%, 2.30% and 3.0% on the 2Yr (0.44%), 5Yr (1.56%), 10Yr (2.31%) and 30Yr (3.05%) respectively. A bounce is needed from here to prevent further decline towards 0.40% on the 2Yr and 2.95% on the 30Yr. These seem to be more vulnerable to the downside than the 5Yr and 10Yr. Interestingly, the 10-5Yr Spread (0.75%) could be tracing a Double Bottom with Support in the 0.71-72% region. A rise past 0.78-80% will be needed to confirm. Worth watching.

The German 2Yr (-0.063%) has been finding some Support at -0.10% and consequently, the German-US 2Yr Spread (-0.51%) has moved up well. The German-US 10Yr Spread (-1.41%) has also been moving up well and the charts suggest further room on the upside to as much as -1.30%. So, either the US 10Yr has to fall more or the German 10Yr has to rise, both of which look difficult. So, something is amiss here.

Most 10Yr yields remain in a downtrend in Europe. Only the Greek 10Yr (6.63%) seems to have formed a bit of a bottom and is moving up slowly.

In India, the10Yr GOI yield moved up from 8.4075% to 8.4657% yesterday. Look for a test of 8.50% today. That is an imporant Support and is unlikely to break, at least not on first testing.

DATA TODAY



12:00 GMT or 17:30 IST IN IIP
...Previous 0.50 %

8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK Trade Balance
...Previous -10.19 £ (Bln)

12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST CA Labour Force
...Previous -11.0 K

14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST CA PMI
...Previous 50.90


DATA YESTERDAY

Australia Labour Force
...Actual -29.7 K ...Previous 39.70 K

BOE Mtg
...Previous 0.50 % ...Expected 0.50 % ...Actual 0.50 %

 

 

 

 

 

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