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Friday October 10, 2014 - 10:47:19 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: G20 central bankers meet with concerns looming over global growth; EU Industrial Production data continues to disappoint

Fri, 10 Oct 2014 5:15 AM EST

- G20 Central Bankers meet in Washington today with concerns looming over global growth (particularly in Europe); Austerity on trial; currencies appear to be taking a much broader role in the policy discussion
- European Industrial Production data continues to disappoint (Finland, France, Italy Netherland and Turkey miss expectations)
- UK Trade deficit improves for the wrong reasons as both Imports and exports slump to 4-year lows
- BOJ Minutes reiterates it should continue QE to meet 2% target for as long as necessary

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (JP) Japan Sept Consumer Confidence Index: 39.9 v 41.8e (2nd straight monthly decline)

- (SE) Sweden Sept PES Unemployment Rate: 4.2% v 4.3%e
- (FI) Finland Aug Industrial Production M/M: -0.7% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: -3.5% v -2.0%e
- (FR) France Aug Industrial Production M/M: 0.0% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -1.0%e
- (FR) France Aug Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.7%e
- (TR) Turkey Aug Industrial Production M/M: -1.4% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.7%e
- (HU) Hungary Sept CPI M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v -0.3%e (First negative YoY reading in three months and lowest since the 1960s)
- (NL) Netherlands Aug Industrial Production M/M: -0.6% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 2.0%e; Industrial Sales Y/Y: -5.4% v 0.6% prior
- (NO) Norway Sept CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.4%e
- (IT) Italy Aug Industrial Production M/M: 0.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -3.7 v -1.7% prior; Industrial Production WDA Y/Y:-0.7% v -0.1%e
- (UK) Aug Visible Trade Balance: -9.1B v -9.6Be; Total Trade Balance: -1.9B v -3.0Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -3.6B v -4.0Be

- (UK) Aug Construction Output M/M: -3.9% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v +2.9%e
- (GR) Greece Aug Industrial Production Y/Y: -5.7% v -1.1% prior

Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency
(Tesoro) auction results decent; sold 8.0B vs. 8.0B indicated in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.301% v 0.271% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.7x v 1.64x prior

Indices [Stoxx50 -1%
, FTSE 100 -1% at 6,367, DAX -1.7% at 8,845, CAC-40 -1.3% at 4,088, IBEX-35 -1% at 10,168, FTSE MIB -1.2% at 19,161, SMI -1% at 8,384, S&P 500 Futures -0.2% at 1,921]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower amid speculation that Germany may lower its growth forecasts, DAX trades below Aug lows (trades near Oct 2013 lows), Energy names lower on decline in oil prices, Ebola concerns continue to weigh on energy sector

By Sector
- Basic Materials/Resources
[Vedanta Resources VED.UK -6% (H1 production declined)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Givaudan GIVN.CH -1% (Q3 LFL sales below ests); Carrefour CA.FR +1% (broker commentary)]
- Financials [Mediolanum MED.IT -2% (share placement)]
- Technology [Infineon IFX.DE -3% (cautious outlook by Microchip Technology)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Energy -1%, Industrials -0.6%, Technology -0.6%, Basic Materials -0.2%, Consumer Cyclical -0.1% ;Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.5%, Utilities +0.3%, Financials +0.3%, Telecom flat]

- ECB's Hansson
(Estonia) reiterated Council view that it was premature to put fresh measures on the table, if current actions were not enough could do more. He added that whether QE was needed or possible was decision for future.
- EU Commission President-elect Juncker said to drop ESM proposal of using funds to increase investment due to German resistance
- Senior Italy govt official: Not worried about possibility of budget plan being rejected by EU
- Fresh speculation circulating that Germany Govt could cuts its GDP growth forecasts for both 2014 and 2015
- Former Japan MoF Official Sakakibara (Mr. Yen) stated that he expected USD/JPY pair to move in the 106-111 range or the time being, yen weakness unlikely to accelerate. Current JPY currency weakness was already a negative for the Japanese economy and any rapid depreciation towards the 115-120 area could warrant action

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- USD has recovered most of the losses seen following the FOMC minutes.
Dealers noted that despite the commentary from the FOMC minutes earlier this week it might be hard to make the case that USD was overvalued at this stage. G7 has always expressed concern over FX volatility and the recent pace of USD gains might provide some pause
- The EUR/USD was softer in the session. European Industrial Production data continued to disappoint (Finland, France, Italy Netherland and Turkey miss expectations)
- The GBP currency was weaker in the session. Some of the weakness attribute to the by-election results overnight in Clacton-on-Sea where anti-EU UKIP party won its first seat in UK parliament. Some analysts noted the result could signal a sea change in British politics.
- Russia RUB currency (ruble) hits fresh record lows against both USD and EUR

Political/In the Papers:
- (UK) Anti-EU UKIP party wins its first seat in UK parliament in Westminster - press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (LV) Latvia Sovereign Debt Rating might be published by Moody's
- (FI) Finland Sovereign Debt Rating published by S&P
- (FR) France Sovereign Debt Rating published by S&P
- (EU) EFSF Sovereign Debt Rating published by S&P
- (IT) Italy Sovereign Debt Rating might be published by Moody's
- (PT) Portugal Sovereign Debt Rating published by Fitch
- World Bank and International Monetary Fund Annual Meeting
- IIF Annual Membership Meeting
- (GR) Possible Greece confidence vote on Friday regarding PM plan to exit the bailout
- (RU) Russia Aug Trade Balance: $16.1Be v $17.1B prior; Exports $42.3Be v $46.1B prior; Imports: $26.2Be v $29.0B prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes
- (PE) Peru Aug Trade Balance: -$357.0Me v -$522M prior
- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell I/L Bonds
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Aug Trade Balance: No est v 944.0M prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Sept CPI M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.3%e v -0.4% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Sept CPI EU Harmonized M/M: +0.6%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.1%e v -0.1% prior
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment vs. 3.1Be
- 06:05 (UK) DMO to sell combined in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Economist Survey
- 07:30 (IN) Weekly India Forex Reserves
- 08:00 (ES) Weekly Spanish govt Cabinet meeting press conference
- 08:00 (IN) India Aug Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v 0.5% prior
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces specific bonds to be issued in upcoming auction
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Sept Import Price Index M/M: -0.6%e v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.4% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Sept Net Change in Employment: +20.0Ke v -11.0K prior; Unemployment Rate: 7.0%e v 7.0% prior;
Full Time Employment Change: No est v -2.3K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v -8.7K prior; Participation Rate: No est v 66.0% prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Industrial Production M/M: 0.4%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.1% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 3.2%e v 3.4% prior
- 09:00 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks on Monetary Policy in New York
- 09:00 (UK) BOE Dep Gov Bailey in Washington
- 10:00 (PT) ECB's Constancio (Portugal) in Washington DC
- 10:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with China PM Li to lead High-Level German-Chinese Talks in Berlin
- 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Q3 Senior Loan Officer Survey: no est v -12.8 prior; Business Outlook Future Sales: 28.0e v 24.0 prior
- 12:50 (ES) ECB's Linde (Spain) in Washington
- 13:00 (US Fed's George speaks on Economy in McCook, Nebraska
- 13:00 (AT) ECB's Nowotny with Austria Fin Min Shelling
- 14:00 (BE) ECB's Praet in Washington DC
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Fisher on economy in Dallas
- 14:00 (US) Sept Monthly Budget Statement: $72.0Be v $75.1B prior
- 15:00 (US Fed's Lacker speaks on Financial Firm Bankruptcy in Chicago
- 15:00 (UK) BOE's Forbes in Washington
- 16:00 (FR) ECB's Coeure (France) in Washington


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