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Tuesday August 23, 2005 - 11:36:30 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• Germany’s ZEW survey surged to 50 in August. The Eurozone ZEW also rose.

• JPY dips, despite new highs in the Nikkei.

• US existing home sales and the weekly ABC survey are due today.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD eked out gains in early European trading, hovering below the 1.2260 zone. The 1.23 region is key to hold above that to prevent a resumption of the EUR correction higher from early July. A pullback below 1.22 is preferred to bring Friday’s 1.2127 low back into view. A break of the 1.2127-00 area would be needed to keep the current move going for a slide below 1.20 over the next week or so. EUR-GBP was dragged higher through 0.6800, leaving the 0.6840 area to attract short term with EUR-USD higher and GBP-USD capped at 1.80 given little domestic data to move it. Upticks are likely to be short-lived. Germany's ZEW economic expectations indicator surged to 50 in August, climbing to a 17-month high, up from 37 in July and from a trough of 13.9 in May, completely ignoring the continued rise in oil prices. The current conditions index rose to –61.1 in August, from –66.7 in July. The Eurozone ZEW index also rebounded strongly to 41.6, from 29 in July. It will be interesting to see if the Ifo shows a similar improvement on Thursday. This indicator is a measure of investor sentiment rather than what is happening to actual businesses, but reflects the stabilisation in some of the economic data after the weakness seen in the spring and the ongoing advance in the key equity indices. This has clearly offset the generally higher oil prices seen during the period.

USD-JPY worked back above 110, despite another push to new 4-year highs in the Nikkei, highlighting scope for another look at Friday’s 110.85 high. Oil prices are hovering just shy of the peaks and the USD is being shunted back and forth in holiday thinned trading, with a week of relatively little economic data. The EUR-JPY cross recovered the 134 zone, highlighting risk of a near term pullback towards 134.70-135 on the day.

USD-CAD sold off sharply in the wake of the firmer retail sales number on Monday, sliding back through 1.2050 and hovering shy of the 1.20 zone, reinforcing potential for a short term retest of the 1.1925 August low. Canadian retail sales rose 1.1% in June, unwinding most of the 1.2% decline seen in May, further solidifying expectations of a rate hike on September 7. Sales of new and used autos and parts, which had been responsible for most of May's decline, rose by 3.3%, the highest of any sector in June. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.4%, following a 0.3% decline in May. Overall, total retail spending rose 1.6% in Q2 and should lead to GDP estimates being scaled higher.

Day Ahead
US – existing home sales and the weekly ABC consumer confidence report are due. The former should reflect the still strong housing market, underpinned by still low mortgage rates.

Canada – the leading indicator for July is scheduled for release, with a rise of 0.3% forecast.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

CA Leading indicator (Jul) m/m 08.30 +0.3%
US Existing home sales (Jul) 10.00 7240k
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Aug 14) 17.00 -7 last

Latest data Actual Consensus*
DE GDP (Q2) q/q 0.0% 0.0%
DE ZEW expectations (Aug) 50.0 39.0
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


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All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

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co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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