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Monday October 13, 2014 - 03:34:31 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 13-Oct-2014 -0333 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
The Friday bear-domination in the global markets may be replicated today but keep eyes on the important supports being tested. The biggest risk in the coming days may be coming from the Japanese market if Nikkei remains below 15300. Today is an important day for Nifty as the bulls must attempt a reversal immediately, or else the intermediate trend may get severely damaged.

The Dow (16544.10, -0.69%) has finally broken the 2-week range of 16650-17100 on the downside, testing our support at 16500 now. The most important thing to watch - the index manages to contain the drop to 16000 levels or not as this will have a huge impact on the trend. Dax (8788.81, -2.40%) technical deterioration was mentioned last Friday. It has closed exactly at our support of 8790 and a break below this final support would mean a journey towards 8400-8000 levels.

Shanghai (2345.73, -1.21%) is correcting from 2390 and may take a pause for a few sessions. The immediate bullish momentum is weak below 2350. The Nikkei (15300.55, -1.15%) has weakened further on the back of a stronger Yen. If a bounce doesn’t materialize immediately, the fall can extend towards 15000 or lower to 14800.

Nifty (7859.95, -1.26%) closed below our support of 7895-75 and negated the possibility of any extended rally as expected. It is expected to open much lower today on the back of a disappointing IIP data and the global cues but keep an eye on the support area of 7815-7785 today, if the bulls manage to hold the price from there.

COMMODITIES
Commodities are mixed. Crude, WTI and Copper are stable while Gold and Silver is trading higher.

Silver (17.53) has risen a bit but while below 18.5-17.75, the chances of a fall towards 17-16.75 cannot be negated. Gold (1233.50) has been rising steadily from levels of 1182 and if this continues we may see a rise towards 1240-1250 in the coming sessions. But a fall towards 1200 cannot be negated unless a sustained break above 1250-1260 is seen.

Nymex WTI (84.88) has risen after falling continuously for 3-sessions but while below 90 a fall towards 80-77 cannot be negated just now. On the other hand, Brent (89.24) is trading just above weekly horizontal support near 88.5 and while that holds may remain stable for a few sessions. If the support is strong enough we may see a bounce towards 95.

Copper (3.0325) continues to fluctuate highly in the 2.99-3.07 zone and as said earlier unless a break on either side is seen further direction is unclear. For now the said range may hold for some more time.

 

FOREX
The consolidation in Dollar, along with the global equity correction, is making the world nervous. Once again, the risk-off mode is prevalent, with the Yen gathering strength. On a net basis, the not much change is seen since Friday morning and now the moves now may be limited to the recent ranges established.

Euro (1.2691) is in the expected pause mode, which can continue for a few more sessions. It has taken support from our 1.26 and that keeps the possibility of another bounce to 1.2900-50 still alive.

Dollar-Yen (107.13) has negated all bullish scenarios with a gap down open this morning. The risk-off sentiment now may prevent it to get higher above 107.75-108 and drag it towards the 106-105.50 in the next few sessions. The Euro-Yen Cross (135.97) hit a new low for the CY2014 at 135.55 and now may hold the low for the next 2-3 sessions.

The positive divergence in Pound (1.6120) produced a bounce close to 1.62 but the gain may be limited 1.63-1.64 in the near term as the larger structure has been damaged considerably.

Aussie (0.8733) tested the recent low of 0.8650 after touching our second target/resistance of 0.89 but just like the other Majors, the corrective bounce mode may not be over as long as it stays above 0..8700-0.8650 (modified support area).

Dollar-Rupee (61.33) has strengthened the bullish scenario on the last trading session and may extend the rally to 61.50-55 today. 60.85 remains the major support.

INTEREST RATES
Most bond yields (USA, Europe, India) near important Supports/ Resistances. Charts suggest they may hold. Need to see confirmation from the markets.

The US 5Yr (1.54%) and 2Yr (0.43%) have seen very sharp falls over the last few days, raising serious questions about their longer term uptrends. The spectre of slowing global growth overhangs the market sentiment. Important data this week is Retail Sales (Wednesday) Need to see if the Retail Sales are able to clock more than 5% y/y growth. We are currently looking for a 4% y/y growth.

US Bond markets may be closed today for Columbus Day but it will be interesting to see how the Dow moves today after Friday's sharp fall. Maybe Bonds will take a cue froom Equities tomorrow.

In Europe, disagreements between Draghi and Jens Weidmann (Bundesbank President) are in the open now. While it makes for interesing reading, it is also distressing economics. Seee http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-12/draghi-dictator-working-germans-impossible

The KSHITIJ E-4 (1.1316%) and E-7 (1.3044%) Composite yields for Europe have been declining for the last couple of weeks and are again close to long-term Support trendlines. A bounce is needed to prevent further fall that could break the trendlines. The EU Industrial Production will be important tomorrow. It has been stagnating between -2% and +2% (y/y) for some months now. A pickup is long overdue now.

The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.4558%) has not yet tested our 8.50% Resistance, but the potential remains. The Indo-US 10Yr Spread (6.15%) has come off a bit from a high of 6.17% last week. Longer term Resistance seen near 6.20-6.22%. Expect the Spread to fall from there. Charts do not suggest a rise past 6.22% for now.

DATA TODAY



12:00 GMT or 17:30 IST IN CPI
...Previous 7.80

2:00 GMT or 7:30 IST CN Trade Bal
...Expected 41.0 $ Bln ...Previous 49.83 $ Bln


FRIDAY'S DATA:-
IN IIP
...Actual 0.40 % ...Previous 0.40 %

UK Trade Balance
...Previous -10.41 £ (Bln) ...Actual -9.10 £ (Bln)

CA Labour Force
...Expected 18.70 K ...Previous -11.0 K ... Actual 74.10 K

 

 

 

 

 

 

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15:30 US- EIA Crude
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