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Tuesday October 14, 2014 - 03:59:01 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 14-Oct-2014 -0358 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
The US & Japan markets continue to fall but the excellent CPI data is expected to boost the Indian market.

The Dow (16321.07, -1.35%) extended the fall to the minor support 16300 but no w everything depends on 16000. Below 16000, another 4-6% loss can come fast but if 16k remains unbroken, expect the resumption of the long term uptrend.. Dax (8812.43, +0.27%) had a pause day, testing the resistance of 8900, below which it remains in a very weak position. Only an immediate bounce can save the index from further meltdown to 8400-8000 levels.

Shanghai (2378.82, +0.54%) is correcting from 2390 and may take a pause for a few sessions. The Nikkei (15079.23, -1.45%) has met our initial downside target of 15000 but still doesnít show an particular intention to bounce. More risk remains on the cards as long as the index trades below 15400.

Nifty (7884.25, +0.31%) bulls managed a big 100 points bounce from exactly our support area of 7815-7785. But only a break above 7975 would be the actual signal of reversal for a new high. Letís watch the price action near 7925 and 7975.

COMMODITIES
Precious metals look positive this week while the Crude is strongly under bearish pressure.

Silver (17.49) was trapped yesterday between the 21-day MA and the 13day MA near 17.6 and 17.28 respectively. It may rise steadily towards 17.75-18.5 region in the coming weeks but before that we may see some ranged moves in the 17.25-17.75 region. Gold (1234.45) has been rising steadily since the last 6 sessions and may rise towards 1240-1250 in the coming sessions. Near term is positive for now.

Nymex WTI (85.06) has still not come out of the influence of the bears and may soon target levels of 80-77 in the coming weeks. Near term is bearish. On the other hand, Brent (88.25) has broken our targeted support levels of 88.5, negating out any possibility of a reversal just now. This indicates a sharp fall ahead, targeting 80-75 in the mid-term. Near term strongly bearish.

Copper (3.0435) remains stable in the 2.99-3.07 zone. No major movement expected unless a break on either side is seen.

 

FOREX
The Majors continue the consolidation but the major trend remains firmly down. A resumption of the major trend would be more powerful after this kind of pause. Expect mainly sideways movement for the next 1-2 sessions.

Euro (1.2725) is in the expected pause mode, which can continue for a few more sessions. It has taken support from our 1.26 and that keeps the possibility of another bounce to 1.2900-50 still alive.

Dollar-Yen (107.24) has negated all bullish scenarios with a gap down open this morning. The risk-off sentiment now may prevent it to get higher above 107.75-108 and drag it towards the 106-105.50 in the next few sessions. The Euro-Yen Cross (136.47) has bounced as expected from the new low for the CY2014 at 135.55, which may hold for the next 2-3 sessions.

The positive divergence in Pound (1.6074) produced a bounce close to 1.62 but the gain may be limited 1.63-1.64 in the near term as the larger structure has been damaged considerably. A new low to 1.59 looks likely in the near term but requires further confirmation.

Aussie (0.8807) tested the recent low of 0.8650 after touching our second target/resistance of 0.89 but just like the other Majors, the corrective bounce mode may not be over as long as it stays above 0..8700-0.8650 (modified support area).

Dollar-Rupee (61.1050) came down against our expectations and may retest the support band of 60.90-85 now. A break below 60.85 strengthen the Rupee further to the major support area of 60.55-50 but a bounce from 60.85 may produce another rally to 61.35-50.Watch the price action near 60.85.

INTEREST RATES
First really good domestic news from India yesterday: the sharp decline in Sep-14 CPI to 6.46% (from 7.73%) and in Food Inflation to 7.67% (from 9.51%). The trajectory has indeed turned hearteningly lower. The 10Yr GOI (8.4185%) is likely to fall now as the market will start hoping for a rate cut at the next RBI Meeting on 2nd December, by which time the RBI will have another couple of months of data. The Resistance at 8.50% becomes very strong now and a break below 8.40% will open up targets of 8.30-8.275%. The Indo-US 10Yr Spread (near 8.17%) is also likely to come off sharply.

US Yields (2 Yr 0.40%, 5Yr 1.48%, 10Yr 2.24% and 30Yr 3.00%) are at very low levels. A sharp bounce is needed from current levels to avoid the danger of much lower levels. But, the fall in the Dow (16321, -223, -1.35%) does not inspire confidence.

The German-US 2Yr Spread (-0.445%) and 10Yr Spread (-1.353%) have moved up further, benefitting the Euro (1.2725). The 10Yr Spread might target Resistance near -1.28%.

The US-Japan 10Yr spread (1.758%) is testing a very imporant long-term Support at current levels and may well bounce from here. Japanese Yields (30Yr 1.632%, 10Yr 0.488%) have been moving up over the last two weeks but could start coming off soon again, resuming their longer term downtrend.

DATA TODAY



6:30 GMT or 12:00 IST IN WPI
...Previous 3.74 %

8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK CPI Y/Y
...Expected 1.4 % ...Previous 1.50 %

9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU IND Prodn (MoM)
...Expected -1.50 % ...Previous 1.00 %


DATA YESTERDAY

IN CPI
...Previous 7.80 ...Actual 6.46

CN Trade Bal
...Expected 41.0 $ Bln ...Previous 49.83 $ Bln ...Actual 31.00 $ Bln


 

 

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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