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Tuesday October 14, 2014 - 10:37:55 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: European inflation data comes in below expectations; German sentiment weighed down by geo-political situation

Tue, 14 Oct 2014 5:24 AM EST

- European inflation data (France, Spain, Switzerland, UK and Sweden) continues to come in on the soft side; heightens calls for ECB QE
- UK Headline and Core CPI YoY reading at 5-year lows
- UK Sept BRC LFL Sales registers its biggest decline in 17 months (Y/Y: -2.1% vs. +1.0%e)
- India Wholesale Prices lower than expected to its lowest reading in almost 5 years' opens up rate cut window
- Catalonia region puts off planned referendum and seeks consultations within Spanish law

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (FI) Finland Sept CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 0.9%e
- (IN) India Sept Wholesale Prices (WPI) Y/Y: 2.4% v 3.2%e (5-year low)
- (FR) France Sept CPI M/M: -0.4% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.4%e; CPI Ex-Tobacco Index: 125.88v 125.96e

- (ES) Spain Sept CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.2%e
- (ES) Spain Sept CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 1.0% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.3%e
- (ES) Spain Sept CPI Core M/M: 0.0% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.1% v 0.0%e
- (CH) Swiss Sept Producer & Import Prices M/M: -0.1% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -1.4% v -1.2% prior
- (SE) Sweden Sept CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -0.4% V -0.1%e; CPI Level: 313.85 V 314.85e
- (SE) Sweden Sept CPI Underlying (CPIF) M/M: 0.2% V 0.6%e; Y/Y: 0.3% V 0.6%e
- (IT) Italy Sept Final CPI M/M: -0.4% v -0.3% prelim; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.1% prelim; CPI Ex Tobacco : 107.1 v 107.5 prior
- (UK) Sept CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.4%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.8%e
- (UK) Sept RPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.3%e; RPIX Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.4%e; Retail Price Index: 257.6 v 257.9e
- (UK) Sept PPI Input M/M: -0.6% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -7.4% v -6.7%e
- (UK) Sept PPI Output M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.3%e
- (UK) Sept PPI Output Core M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.9%e
- (DE) Germany Oct ZEW Current Situation Survey: 3.2 v 15.0e; Expectations Survey: -3.6 v 0.0e
- (EU) Euro Zone Aug Industrial Production M/M: -1.8% v -1.6%e; Y/Y: -1.9% v -0.9%e

Fixed Income
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency
(DSTA) was steady; sold total 2.6B vs. 2.5-3.5B indicated range in 0.5% 2017 DSL Bonds; Avg Yield: 0.015% v 0.192% prior
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) was decent; sold total 4.03B vs. 3.0-4.0B indicated range in 6-Month and 12-Month Bills (Sept 16th 2014)
- Sold 1.17B in 6-month bills; Avg Yield: 0.183% v 0.111% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.47x v 2.45x prior
- Sold 2.86B in 12-month bills; Avg Yield: 0.288% v 0.219% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.44x v 1.75x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 82.5B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.05% vs. 85.0Be (prior 84.2B with 139 bids recd)

Indices [Stoxx50 -1%
, FTSE 100 -0.7% at 6,325, CAC-40 -0.7% at 4,040, IBEX-35 -0.8% at 10,113, FTSE MIB -1% at 18,941, SMI -1% at 8,256, S&P 500 Futures +0.1% at 1,868]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower amid negative leads from the US, European corporate outlook concerns (Michael Page, Leoni, Burberry, Mulberry, SABMiller), Daimler supported by outlook, Large US banks to report later today (Citi, Wells Fargo), Germany's ZEW data misses estimates

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Mulberry MUL.UK -20% (profit warning), Michael Page MPI.UK -11% (profit warning), Burberry BRBY.UK -4% (cautious outlook), SABMiller SAB.UK -% (H1 sales below ests); Sanitec SNTC.SE +53% (takeover offer)]
- Telecom [Iliad ILD.FR +12% (withdrew offer for T-Mobile USA)]
- Industrials [Daimler DAI.DE +2.5% (outlook); Leoni LEO.DE -1% (profit warning)]
- Financials [Ashmore ASHM.UK -1% (Q2 AUM declined q/q)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Energy -0.8%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.8%, Financials -0.4%, Utilities -0.2%, Basic Materials -0.1%; Consumer Cyclical +1.4%, Technology +0.9%, Telecom +0.3%, Industrials flat]

- Portugal 2015 budget deficit may be greater than 2.5% of GDP target but still within EU 3% limit

- German ZEW economist stated that geopolitical tensions were the source of uncertainty and that weak Euro-area economy weighed on confidence. It could not exclude a technical recession in Germany
- Catalan provincial President Mas stated it would hold a consultations for independence on Nov 9th; Not taking a step back . Would be a vote on Nov 9th but referendum would not go ahead as previously planned. Catalan vote to be within Spanish law; questions to be the same
- Japan Komeito (coalition) Party Head Yamaguchi reiterated it would continue to pay attention to weak yen; necessary measures should be taken on yen weakness
- IEA cut its global oil demand growth forecast for both 2014 and 2015. Cuts 2014 oil demand growth est by 200K bpd to 700K bpd (lowest since 2009) and 2015 revised lower by 300K bpd, now sees demand growing by 1.1M bpd;

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Softer European inflation and economic data weighed upon the major European currencies in the session and saw the USD recoup its earlier losses that were registered in Asia.

- The EUR/USD tested below 1.2675 level after hitting 1.2768 in Asia. German Expectation survey turned negative for the first time in two years and the German 10-year Bund hit a fresh record low below 0.86%
- The GBP/USD fell below the 1.60 level after Sept CPI data came in at 5-year lows.
- The USD/JPY dipped below 107 handle.
- The softer Swedish CPI data sent the SEK currency lower by 1% to test above the 9.14 level against the Euro. Various analyst brought forward their call for Riksbank Repo Rate (Swedbank now saw a cut in Oct against its Dec prior view

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Weidmann: There are increasing reasons to be concerned about France and Germany, credibility of EU fiscal rules is at risk if they are bent any further
- (EU) France Fin Min: Europe faces the risk of a Japan-style period of deflation
- (DE) S&P's Kraemer: There is less than a one-in-three chance of a downgrade to Germany's sovereign ratings in the next two years; risks are probably to the downside in the euro zone

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (RU) China Premier Li in Russia (3-day visit)
- (EU) European Court of Justice (ECJ) hears case on legality of OMT bond purchases by ECB
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to Sell 3-month Bills
- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell combined 2.3B in 3-Month and 12-Month Bills
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 1.0B in 0.1% 2023 Inflation-linked Bunds

- 06:00 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Finance Ministry decides whether to hold weekly OFZ Bond auction (held Wed if planned)
- 07:00 (IS) Iceland Sept Unemployment Rate: No est v 3.1% prior
- 07:30 (US) Sept NFIB Small Business Optimism: No est v 96.1 prior
- 07:30 (DE) German govt updates its economic forecasts
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Aug Current Account Balance: -340Me v -173M prior; Trade Balance: 309Me v 393M prior; Exports: 12.5Be v 14.1B prior; Imports: 12.3Be v 13.7B prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Sept M3 Money Supply M/M: No est v 1.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.4% prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: v prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Aug Trade Balance: No est v 137.8M prior
- 10:00 (PT) Portugal Econ Min de Lima in Parliament
- 11:00 (UK) PM Cameron questioned by UK Lawmakers on Scotland
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.85-1.15B in bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $51B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 14:00 (US) Sept Monthly Budget Statement: $72.0Be
- 16:00 (US) Crop Condition Report
- 21:00 (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut 7-Day Repo Rate by 25bps to 2.00%
- 21:30 (CN) China Sept PPI Y/Y: -1.5%e v -1.2% prior
- 21:30 (CN) China Sept CPI Y/Y: 1.7%e v 2.0% prior

- (CO) Colombia Central Bank's Economists Survey


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