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Wednesday October 15, 2014 - 10:59:22 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Oil price slumps continues

Wed, 15 Oct 2014 5:20 AM EST

- Disinflation remains the dominant theme over the past 24 hours (UK, Sweden and China highlight the situation)
- China Sept inflation data keeps door open for stimulus measures. CPI registers its lowest level since Jan 2010 while PPI fell for the 31st straight month (PPI Y/Y: -1.8% v -1.6%e; CPI Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.7%e)
- (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) cuts 7-Day Repo Rate by 25bps to 2.00% (2nd cut this year); revised its growth and inflation projections lower
- (FR) Fitch placed France AA+ IDR on watch Negative from Stable (to be resolved on Dec 15th)
- 2nd healthcare worker in Texas tests positive for Ebola

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (SG) Singapore Aug Retail Sales M/M: 5.3% v 2.9%e; Y/Y: 5.4% v 3.9%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto Y/Y: -1.6% v +0.5%e
- (DE) Germany Sept Final CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e
- (TR) Turkey Aug Current Account Balance: -$2.8B v -$3.1Be
- (DK) Denmark Sept PPI M/M: +0.4% v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: -2.0% v -2.2% prior
- (UK) Sept Jobless Claims Change: -18.6K v -35.0Ke; Claimant Count Rate: 2.8% v 2.8%e
- (UK) Aug Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 0.7% v 0.7%e; Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/Y: 0.9% v 0.8%e
- (UK) Aug ILO Unemployment Rate: 6.0% v 6.1%e; Employment Change 3M/3M: +46K v +30Ke

- (CH) Swiss Oct Credit Suisse ZEW Survey Expectations Survey: -30.7 v -7.7 prior (lowest since Sept 2012)
- (IT) Italy Q2 YTD Deficit to GDP Ratio: 3.8% v 6.7% prior

Fixed Income:
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) results decent; sold total 812.5M vs. 625M indicated in 13-week Bills; Avg Yield: 1.70% v 1.70% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.48x v 2.51x prior

Indices [Stoxx50 -1%
, FTSE 100 -1.3% at 6,307, DAX -0.9% at 8,744, CAC-40 -1% at 4,045, IBEX-35 -0.9% at 10,115, FTSE MIB -1.1% at 18,938, SMI -1% at 8,256, S&P 500 Futures -0.3% at 1,866]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open mixed as Bund yields remain near record lows, Earnings in Focus (ASML reaffirms outlook, Danone sales above ests), UK M&A (CSR rises on bid from Qualcomm, Shire declines on AbbVie comments), Energy firms pressured by lower oil prices, US morning earnings (Bank of America, BlackRock, PNC)

By Sector
- Consumer Staples
[Danone BN.FR +4% (Q3 sales above ests)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Prosieben PSM.DE +3.5% (upbeat outlook), Heineken HEIA.NL +1% (broker commentary)]
- Technology [CSR CSR.UK +33% (offer from Qualcomm), ASML ASML.NL +1.5% (reaffirmed outlook)]
- Healthcare [Shire SHP.UK -27% (AbbVie to reconsider bid), AstraZeneca AZN.UK -3% (tracking declines in Shire), Smith & Nephew SN.UK -2.5% (tracking declines in Shire) ]
- Basic Materials/Resources [K+S SDF.DE +1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Energy [BG BG.UK +2% (new CEO)]
- Industrials [Balfour Beatty BBY.UK +10% (new CEO)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Energy -1.7%, Utilities -1%, Telecom -0.8%, Financials -0.8%, Industrials -0.6%, Technology -0.2%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.2%; Consumer Cyclical +0.1%, Basic Materials flat

- Norway PM Solberg
stated that the country could withstand short-term price drop in oil, but long-term drop would pose problems (**Note: NOK currency weaker by over 1% against both USD and EUR was oil continued its slump)
- Russia Fin Min Siluanov: Planning Fx deposit auctions to help smooth RUB currency rate and could offer 'several billions" USD in deposit auctions
- Japan Econ Min Amari: Fx has started moving in line with economic fundamentals and that a strong yen was better as long as it reflected economic fundamentals

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The greenback held onto small gains in the session.
Dealers noted that a divergent path between the US and Euro Zone economies to maintain the overall EUR/USD bear trend. The recent string of data out of Europe underscored the relative attractiveness of the USD even if Fed tightening remained some way off
- The GBP tried to trim some of its recent losses after its employment continued its improving trend in the UK. Claimant Count Rate fell to its lowest level since Oct 2008) while Jobless Claims Change declined for the 23rd straight month and wages improved.
- The USD/JPY pair continued to undergo a growing divergence in between Japan govt and central bank officials over the weak JPY currency.
- The NOK hit 4-year lows against the USD and EUR as oil prices continued their slump. Front month WTI contract was approaching $80/barrel.
- German 10-year Bund hits fresh record low yield at 0.81%

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) European Court of Justice (ECJ) indicates it will announce its official opinion regarding the ECB OMT program in mid-January
- (IT) Italy PM Renzi confirmed deals with China amounting to 8.0B
- (PT) Portugal PM: 2015 budget deficit likely to reach 2.7%/GDP

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IT) Italy cabinet meets on budget
- (IT) China Premier Li in Rome
- (ES) Catalonia President Mas sets Spanish Constitutional Court deadline
- (IT) Bank of Italy (BOI) Quarterly Economic Bulletin
- (ES) Spain Aug Trade Balance: No est v -1.8B prior
- (BR) Brazil Oct CNI Industrial Confidence: No est v 46.5 prior
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 4.0B in 0% 2016 Schatz
- 05:30 (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to sell combined 0.75-1.0B in 3-month and 9-month Bills

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Aug Trade Balance: No est v 1.8B prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 10th: No est v +3.8% prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Aug Retail Sales M/M: 0.5%e v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 2.4% prior
- 07:00 (IL) Israel Sept CPI M/M: -0.2%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.1%e v 0.0% prior
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (RU) Russia cancelled planned OFZ Bonds
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Aug Retail Sales M/M: +0.8%e v -1.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.2%e v -0.9% prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Aug Broad Retail Sales M/M: -1.0%e v +0.8% prior; Y/Y: -6.9%e v -4.9% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Sept CPI M/M: -0.1%e v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: -0.4%e v -0.3% prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Oct Empire Manufacturing: 20.25e v 27.54 prior
- 08:30 (US) Sept Advance Retail Sales M/M: -0.1%e v +0.6% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior
; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior; Retail Sales Control Group: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior
- 08:30 (US) Sept PPI Final Demand M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.8% prior
- 08:30 (US) Sept PPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.8% prior
- 09:00 (PL) Poland Sept YTD Budget Balance Performance: No est v 51.9% prior; Budget Balance Level (PLN): No est v -24.6B prior
- 09:00 (CA) Canada Sept Existing Home Sales M/M: No est v 1.8% prior
- 09:00 (CA) Canada Sept Teranet/National Bank HPI M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.0% prior; House Price Index: No est v 167.12 prior
- 10:00 (US) Aug Business Inventories: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior
- 11:00 (DE) Vietnam PM Tan Dung gives Speech in Berlin
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.95-1.15B in notes
- 11:30 (EU) SSM's Nouy in Frankfurt
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-week and 52-week Bills
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil weekly Currency Flow data
- 13:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank's Balog speaks at Corvinus Univ.
- 14:00 (EU) ECB chief Draghi in Frankfurt
- 14:00 (UK) BOE's Weale
- 14:00 (US) Federal Reserve Beige Book
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 28.3% prior
- (AU) RBA's Debelle panel participation at FX Event
- (AR) Argentina Sept National Urban CPI M/M: No est v 1.3% prior
- (PE) Peru Aug Economic Activity Index Y/Y: 0.9%e v 1.2% prior
- (PE) Peru Sept Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.9% prior


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