Wednesday August 24, 2005 - 00:43:54 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 24th August 2005 Price:
Resistance: 110.15 ... 110.30 ... 110.50 ... 110.83
Support....: 109.68 ... 109.39 ... 109.03 ... 108.80
We look for 109.58-68 to continue supporting for a move to 110.30-50
Yesterday's price movement, while holding our 109.58 support perfectly, does not look as if it can rally immediately to the 111.80 and 112.60 areas. It appears more corrective and as such we feel that while 109.68 supports the extent of the gains may well be restricted to the 110.30-50 area on first attempt and we'd then look for further consolidation. Thus, only above 110.50 would extend gains to 111.19 at least. Next resistance is then found at 111.40-50 and 111.88-92.
Price held the 109.58 support perfectly and frankly we do not see this being tested again. Thus only below 109.58-68 would cause a move back down to the 108.95-109.03 area which is strategic. A break there would be needed to accelerate losses to the 107.90-108.13 area.
Elliott Wave Comments:
23rd August 2005
Wave -b- has retraced slightly deeper than expected but held the 76.4% retracement and pivot support at 109.39. Thus we should be looking at targets for Wave -c- on the upside which would imply a minimum move to the wave equality target at 111.19 and possibly as much as the 138.2% projection at 111.88-92 which also represents a 61.8% pullback to the decline from 113.71.
24th August 2005
While we retain a broadly bullish view, price development yesterday does not appear to support a direct rally. It seems more likely we are seeing a complex Wave -b- and this may be occurring in the form of a triangle. (Though we should also be aware of the risk of a flat or expanded flat.) Thus it appears more likely we shall see a day or two more of sideways ranging with 110.30-50 looking like providing the initial cap.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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