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Monday October 27, 2014 - 03:47:36 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 27-Oct-2014 -0347 GMT


The doubt over the US market is not going away and exactly that may fuel the rally towards new highs. The Indian market follows the lead with its own expectation of a rate cut.

The Dow (16805.41, +0.76%) continues the sharp rally to reach the important level of 16800. The probability of a new life high is looking brighter now with the minor resistance coming in 17000-150 and major supply area in 17500. Dax (8987.80, -0.66%) has broken above 8900 to reach just 30-odd points away from our target are of 9100-50. Another new swing high in that area would complete a Rising Wedge, to be confirmed on a break below 8950. Keep an eye on that.

Shanghai (2288.89, -0.58%) is undergoing the largest correction of the last 4 months and the support area of 2315-2290 has been broken. Buying must emerge from 2270-60 (or 2240 at most) immediately, otherwise the correction may get a lot deeper targeting sub-2200 levels. The Nikkei (15342.39, +0.33%) has produced a V-shaped bounce but the structural weakness hasnít been negated yet. The supply pressure from 15600 or even 15750-950 may yet overcome the bulls and they must keep cautious.

Nifty (8014.55, +0.23%) achieved our entire target till 8030. A minor correction now canít be discarded with the resistance band of 8050-70 hanging close, but the trend remains firmly up with support coming at 7935-15.

Gold (1231.45) was hit by the 13-week MA near 1255.2 and pushed to 1230 levels. It may now remain ranged for a couple of sessions in the 1230-1250 region before again rising towards 1255-1260. Silver (17.18) is consolidating sideways in the 17-17.75 zone and may continue for some more time. Moves in the last couple of sessions have been very small and a fresh sharp move may come in soon. Near term remains positive.

Nymex WTI (81.01) has been narrowing in the 79.7-84 region since the last 2-weeks. While support near 80 holds, we may expect some sideways movement between 80 and 84. But a fall past 80 may lead to a danger of falling toward 78-76 levels.

Brent (85.97) is trying to rise but is unable to move above the 13-day MA for now. But we may see a rise towards 88.5 and further up to 90 in the near term assuming the bottom has been made near 82.93. However confirmation can be only made after a sustained rise above 88.5-90 is seen. We may not negate a fall to 82 just now. While waiting for confirmation, we may expect a sideways movement for a few sessions.

Copper (3.0310) has been fluctuating in the 2.95-3.05 region and unless a sustained break on either side is seen, we may see some ranged moves in the said region. Long term trend is down.


For the last two weeks, nearly all the currencies (including Dollar Index) are trading in the same range, with marginal changes taking place at most. Perhaps the FOMC meet on 30th October will end this sideways mode and resume the trending moves.

Euro (1.2709) has expanded the range to 1.26-1.29 with some more weakness creeping in. Upside probabilities are close to being completely discarded and a retest of 1.25 looks more likely as long as the price stays below 1.28.

Dollar-Yen (107.90) has tested the entire supply zone of 107.50-108.25 but the slower retracement suggests that below 109, the downside risk remains on the cards. The Euro-Yen Cross (137.09) took support exactly from our 135.20 before rallying sharply and may reach 138 now.

Pound (1.6099) has created a Cup & Handle pattern with the neckline coming at 1.6175-85. A successful breakout, if materializes, may produce a rise to 1.63 or even more.

Aussie (0.8813) remains in the sideways corrective mode, looking like Diamond pattern, suggesting a lot of contraction of volatility. A break of the range 0.8650-0.8900 is required to produce a trending move, which will be very sharp most probably.

Dollar-Rupee (61.2850) is stuck in a range of 60.90-61.50 for now and may spend some more time inside. No guidance is available from the global cues that may increase volatility, so small movement is more likely for the day.

European yields may consolidate through this week ahead of the ECB Meeting on 6th Nov, next week. Overall, however, there is danger of higher yields as the KSHITIJ E4 and E7 Composites (1.1904% and 1.3642%) could target 1.25% and 1.42% respectively in the coming weeks. Europe has to confront rule, treaties and logistical issues in trying to get even a monetary stimulus to work.

The German 2Yr (-0.0375%) seems to have formed a good bottom at -0.10% and might hover just below 0.0% for some time. The German 10Yr (0.89%) has crucial downtrend Resistance near current levels that could push the yield down again while it holds. Watch this.

Importantly, the German-US 2Yr (-0.43%) and 10Yr (-1.4%) Spreads have come off well from Resistances near -0.35% and -1.27% seen some days ago. The 10Yr Spread is likely to dip a bit more towards -1.45%.

The Curve-flattening that was taking place in the USA over the last few weeks took a small pause in the last few days as yields bounced from the lows see on 16th October. The 5Yr (1.51%) has Resistance at 1.55%, but the 2Yr (0.39%) could move up some more as it has good Support just below 0.40%. Also, the market could be squaring up some long-positions in Bonds ahead of the FOMC meeting on 29th Oct, this Wednesday.

In India, the 10Yr GOI (8.36%) is consolidating below 8.40% which has now become an important Resistance in the overall downtrend since 9.10% seen in April earlier this year.


No major data release today.

...Expected 0.70 % ...Previous 0.86 % ... Actual 0.67 %

US New Home Sales
...Expected 473 K ...Previous 466 K ...Actual 467 K






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