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German IFO Survey Weaker Than Forecast. No Major Surprise in European Bank Stress Tests

German IFO Survey Weaker Than Forecast. No Major Surprise in European Bank Stress Tests
  October 27, 2014 09:30 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

09:15 GMT- Current Market Conditions
European markets are in a mild RISK-ON posture following the Asset  Quality Review(AQR bank stress test results released on Sunday. General results of the tests had been leaked on Friday.  In Far East trade, equities ended mixed.  European bourses are mixed. U.S. share futures are about steady.

U.S. 10-yr yields are higher. 10-yr yields in bunds are down, while gilts are up slightly. Peripheral bond yields closed mostly lower.

The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- flash Service PMI, Pending Homes Sales
    • Today sees U.S. flash Markit Services PMI and Pending Homes Sales data.
    • The key German IFO Survey was weaker than expected. IFO noted that recent better PMI data did not show up in their data.
    • The long awaited European Asset Quality Review (AQR) bank stress tests were released early Sunday and  were in line with the data leaked on Friday  The data have had no no impact on traders.
    • Markets have been setting up for the Fed meeting decision on Wednesday. Market stability should be important for the FOMC. .
    • Tuesday sees a slew of U.S. data including Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence data.
    • On Wednesday, the focus will be the latest FOMC decision and late in the U.S. day a RBNZ policy announcement.
    • Key items Thursday include German unemployment data and U.S. GDP.
    • Friday sees Japanese CPI, a BOJ policy decision, Eurozone flash HICP, U.S. Personal Income data and the final October University of Michigan Survey, Over the weekend, North American clocks are turned back one.
    • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
    Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
    09:00 DE IFO Climate top German Sentiment Survey
    13:45 US Markit SVC PMI flash New PMI indicator
    14:00 US Pending Homes Predictor of Existing Homes Sales
    00:50 JP Retail Sales Retail demand
    12:30 US Dur Goods Mfg demand
    14:00 US CB Consumer Conf Key Sentiment Survey
    18:00 FRB Fed Rates No Rate Change
    21:00 NZ RBNZ Cash Rates
    23:50 JP Ind Out  Production
    08:55  DE unemployment
    12:30  US Initial Claims
    12:30  US GDP broadest growth measure
    00:30 JP Core CPI BOJ target
    04:30 JP Bank of Japan No Rate change seen
    07:00 DE Ret Sales Consumer demand
    10:00 EZ FL HICP  ECB target
    12:30  US PCE deflator Fed Target
    13:55  US U Mich final Key Sentiment Survey

    Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
    27/10/14 11:00 B GB CBI Dist Trades 25 31
    27/10/14 13:45 A US Markit SVC PMI flash 58 58.9
    27/10/14 14:00 A US Pending Homes 1.00% -1.00%
    28/10/14 0:00 A TUESDAY
    28/10/14 0:50 A JP Retail Sales yy 1.00% 1%
    28/10/14 12:30 A US Dur Goods 0.30% -18.20%
    28/10/14 12:30 A US D/G ex-trans 0.50% 0.40%
    28/10/14 13:00 B US Case-Shil 20 yy 0.10% -0.50%
    28/10/14 14:00 C US Richmond Fed n/a n/a
    28/10/14 14:00 A US CB Consumer Conf 87 86
    28/10/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 2-yr n/a n/a
    28/10/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
    29/10/14 0:00 A WEDNESDAY
    29/10/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
    29/10/14 14:30 A US EIA Distillate mn n/a 7.1
    29/10/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a 1.3
    29/10/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a 1.05
    29/10/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 0.867
    29/10/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 5-yr n/a n/a
    29/10/14 18:00 A FRB Fed Rates 0.25% 0.25%
    29/10/14 21:00 A NZ RBNZ Cash Rate 3.50% 3.50%
    29/10/14 23:50 A JP Ind Out p yy n/a -3.30%
    30/10/14 0:00 A THURSDAY
    30/10/14 8:00 A CH KOF Ind n/a 99.1
    30/10/14 8:55 A DE unem Kchg 4 12
    30/10/14 8:55 A DE unempl rate 6.70% 6.70%
    30/10/14 10:00 B EZ Cons Conf -11.1 -11.1
    30/10/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a n/a
    30/10/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 281 283
    30/10/14 12:30 A US GDP 2Q14 2.00% 2.50%
    30/10/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 94
    30/10/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 7-yr n/a n/a

    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

    See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

    John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
    Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved


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