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Monday October 27, 2014 - 11:30:44 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: ECB stress tests offers brief respite in Europe; German IFO survey has specter of recession looming

Mon, 27 Oct 2014 5:26 AM EST

- ECB stress tests largely in line with market expectations and ease markets concerns (25 of the banks tested failing and the capital-raising needs put at just 9.5B. Post capital-raising efforts only 13 would have failed as of Sept 30th
- Brazil stocks see slumping between 6-8% after President Rousseff won re-election
- German Oct IFO survey saw the Business Climate component registers its 6th straight lower MoM reading; specter of recession seems to loom

**Note: European clocks fell back an hour over the weekend. US clocks to fall back next Sunday (Nov 2nd)

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (FI) Finland Oct Business Confidence: -7 v -11 prior; Consumer Confidence Index: +0.4 v -1.5e
- (TW) Taiwan Sept Leading Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prior; Coincident Index M/M: 0.5% v 0.5% prior (both Aug and sept released)
- (HK) Hong Kong Sept Trade Balance (HKD): -50.4B v -38.0Be; Exports Y/Y: 4.5% v 6.0%e; Imports Y/Y: 6.3% v 4.6%e
- (DE) Germany Oct IFO Business Climate: 103.2 v 104.5e (5th straight decline); Current Assessment: 108.4 v 110.0e; Expectations Survey: 98.3 v 99.2e
- (EU) Euro Zone Sept M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.2%e; M3 Three-Month Avg: 2.1% v 2.0%e

Fixed Income:
- None seen

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.3%,
FTSE 100 +0.2% at 6,403, DAX flat at 8,980, CAC-40 flat 4,131, IBEX-35 -0.3% at 10,297, FTSE MIB -0.7% at 19,341, SMI +0.3% at 8,566, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,960]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity markets open broadly higher led by gains in the banking sector (post stress test results), Gains capped by weaker German IFO data, Outperformers in the banking sector (DBK.DE +2%, CBK.DE +5%, Raiffeisen +7%, Erste Bank +7%, and Banco Popolare +5%), Underperformers in the banking sector (IPM.IE -22%, BMPS.IT -13%, CRG.IT -16%, LLOY.UK -2%), US morning earnings (Merck, Huntsman)

By Sector
- Industrials
[SSAB SSABA.SE +5% (reported Q3 net profit), SAAB SAABB.SE +5% (contract award), Sandvik SAND.SE +3% (Q3 profits above ests); TNT Express TNTE.NL -3% (reported Q3 net loss)]
- Energy [Salamander SMDR.UK +22% (takeover offer)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Telecom +0.7%, Utilities +0.7%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.7%, Energy +0.7%, Financials +0.7%, Technology +0.6%, Consumer Cyclical +0.5%, Industrials +0.1%; Basic Materials -0.5%]

- German IFO Economists stated that they saw almost no bright spots at this time in German industry
with only export expectations rising slightly (and not sure it that was sustainable). It noted that the upward trend in recent PMIs were not yet visible in IFO survey. It forecasted Q3 German growth as flat
- German DIHK Chambers of Commerce Economic Outlook again cuts its views on 2014. It now saw 2014 GDP growth at 1.3% (from 1.5% Aug view) with exports rising by 2.8% (from prior 3.5% view).
- Deputy Russian Foreign Min stated that the results of the Ukraine parliamentary election opened the chance to implement peace agreements. He added that the higher number of 'nationalists' in Ukraine Parliament after election creates risk of more fighting in eastern Ukraine

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- EUR currency registered only moderate gains following Sunday's bank stress test results which seemed to be 'baked in' given the release of the draft document on Friday.
The EUR/USD hovered below the 1.27 handle in listless trade. The German Oct IFO Survey heightened up the risk of recession in Germany but little FX impact this this time.
- The Brazil BRL currency (real) seemed poised for extreme losses following the re-election of President Rousseff. The USD/BRL ended last week at 2.48 with some analysts looking for 2.65 in the aftermath of the election results.

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB Comprehensive Assessment: Results: 25 of 130 banks failed stress tests (in line with draft document); although problems largely solved; Bank asset values must be adjusted by 48B; The breakdown of the 25 failed banks include 9 Italian banks, 3 each from Greece and Cyprus, 2 each from Belgium and Slovenia; 1 each from Spain, Germany, Ireland, Austria, France and Portugal
- Brazil President Rousseff emerged victorious in the 2nd round of elections, narrowly beating out the pro-business candidate Neves by a 3pct margin despite the left-wing Silva throwing her support behind the challenger. Brazil stocks and currency are anticipated to plummet given the thin margin of victory, even though Rousseff promised more political dialogue and greater focus on combating inflation during her 2nd term.
- Ukraine Parliamentary snap elections saw the pro-Europe parties of President Poroshenko and PM Yatsenyuk come out as the top two with 23% and 21%, and they are expected to form ruling govt coalition (Ukraine's westward shift)
- China/HK trading link delayed; the Shanghai/Hong Kong trading link had been expected to launch
by the end of Oct but it will miss that deadline and it isn't clear when the initiative will actually go
into effect. .

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (PT) Bank of Portugal Governor Costa Speaks at OMFIF
- 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing
- 06:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 06:30 (DE) Germany to sell 2.0B in 12-month BuBills
- 07:00 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble speech at tax conference
- 07:00 (IL) Israel Aug Manufacturing Production M/M: No est v -0.8% prior
- 07:00 (UK) Oct CBI Industrial Reported Sales: 25e v 31 prior
- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bills
- 07:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:30 (TR) Turkey Oct Real Sector Confidence SA: No est v 107.6 prior; Real Sector Confidence NSA: No est v 107.6 prior
- 08:30 (TR) Turkey Oct Capacity Utilization: No est v 74.4% prior
- 09:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 09:45 (US) Oct Preliminary Markit Services PMI: 57.8e v 58.9 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 59.0 prior
- 09:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 6.0-7.2B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 10:00 (US) Sept Pending Home Sales M/M: +1.0%e v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: +2.2%e v -4.1% prior
- 10:00 (IL) Israel Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 0.25%

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Preliminary Trade Balance: -0.4Be v -$1.1B prior
- 10:30 (US) Oct Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 11.0e v 10.8 prior
- 10:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.85-1.05B in notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $54B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 12:00 (CA) Canadian Minister Lebel Speaks at CD Howe
- 12:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Total Federal Debt (BRL): No est v 2.169T prior
- 16:00 (US) Crop Condition Report
- 17:00 (KR) South Korea Oct Consumer Confidence: No est v 107 prior
- 19:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel attends Memorial Event for WWI Battle of Flanders
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Sept Retail Sales M/M: 0.9%e v 1.9% prior; Y/Y: 0.8%e v 1.2% prior; Large Retailers' Sales: 0.7%e v 1.6% prior
- (CA) Toronto Elections
- (CA) Elections held to fill Alberta provincial vacancies


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