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Monday October 27, 2014 - 15:31:34 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Just Another Manic Monday

Mon, 27 Oct 2014 11:08 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (UK) Oct CBI Industrial Reported Sales: 31 v 25e
- (US) Oct Preliminary Markit Services PMI: 57.3 v 57.8e
- (US) Sept Pending Home Sales M/M: 0.3% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 2.2%e
- (IL) Israel Central Bank leaves Base Rate unchanged at 0.25%, as expected
- (MX) Mexico Sept Preliminary Trade Balance: +$0.59B v -$0.4Be
- (US) Oct Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 10.5 v 11.0e

The ECB stress tests unfolded mostly as expected over the weekend and this morning, however the sixth consecutive sequential decline in the October German IFO survey knocked European indices lower. The weak US October Markit services PMI reading did not help sentiment, although US indices bottomed out around 10:00ET and moved higher. As of writing, the DJIA is positive again, the S&P500 is down 0.19% and the Nasdaq is up 0.11%.

The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and most expect the committee to make the final taper, ending bond purchases and starting the countdown to interest rate hikes. Recall that during the market volatility two weeks ago, Fed Governor Bullard said the FOMC should consider delaying the end of the QE taper this month to help stem the slide in inflation expectations. There is little chance the Fed will be taking Bullard's advice.

There have been reports of another possible Ebola case in New York City this morning. A 5-year-old boy who arrived from Guinea was being observed in isolation at Bellevue Hospital The boy, who arrived in the United States on Saturday, was running a very high fever and vomiting.

Dilma Rousseff won a second term as Brazil's President in elections yesterday, beating center-right candidate Aecio Neves. Various Brazil stocks have been losing ground after the results came out, but none so much as Petrobras; the US-listed ADRs are down around 16% this morning, although it's worth noting that shares of PBR have fallen about 25% over the last several months, hit by falling oil prices and early poll numbers. The iShares Brazil ETF, EWZ, is down more than 7% in US trading.

Goldman Sachs note out today notes global oil markets will be oversupplied with crude in 2015 and consequently the firm has brought forward their medium-term bearish oil outlook. Goldman lowered its WTI crude oil forecast to $75 for the first half of 2015 from $90 previously, and cut Brent to $85 from $100. Separately, comments from OPEC members Iran and Kuwait indicated they are resigned to lower prices: Iran said OPEC would not cut production ceilings and Kuwait said lower prices would not impact its budget and development plans.

Apply Pay has hit a big speed bump that could seriously impact adoption rates. Retailers Rite Aid and CVS have pulled support for the Apple payment format and turned back to the CurrentC system being developed by the MCX consortium. Walmart leads the consortium, which includes a broad spectrum of retailers, although tech bloggers have dismissed the system as clunky and hard to use.

Shares of Scientific Games are down nearly 12% this morning on reports that lenders are delaying syndication of loans needed by the company to finance its acquisition of Bally Technologies. Reportedly the loans were not seeing any interest from investors, as soaring yields in junk bond markets have accompanied global growth fears over the last several weeks. BYI is down 3.3%.

Merck's third quarter earnings beat expectations but sales dropped 4% y/y amid patent expirations and a decline in sales of its hepatitis C drugs. The company trimmed its full-year view, and shares of MRK are down 1.7%.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Total Federal Debt (BRL): No est v 2.169T prior
- 16:00 (US) Crop Condition Report
- 17:00 (KR) South Korea Oct Consumer Confidence: No est v 107 prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Sept Retail Sales M/M: 0.9%e v 1.9% prior; Y/Y: 0.8%e v 1.2% prior; Large Retailers' Sales: 0.7%e v 1.6% prior


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