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U.S. Data Flat. German IFO Data Slump. European Bank Stress Tests Hold No Surprises

U.S. Data Flat. German IFO Data Slump. European Bank Stress Tests Hold No Surprises
  October 28, 2014 00:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

15:15 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
European markets are in a mild RISK-OFF posture following the Sunday  Asset  Quality Review (AQR bank stress test results. Demand for equities appears to be light at best.  n Far East trade, equities ended mixed.  European bourses are ending lower U.S. shares are slightly negative at this hour.

U.S. 10-yr yields are lower. 10-yr yields in bunds are down, while gilts are steady. Peripheral bond yields are mostly higher.



The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Retail Sales, US- Durable Goods, Case Shiller, Conf Board Consumer Confidence
    • Tuesday sees a slew of U.S. data including Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence data.
    • Both the U.S. flash Markit Services PMI and Pending Homes Sales data fell short of expectations ans were basically flat..
    • The key German IFO Survey was weaker than expected. IFO noted that recent better PMI data did not show up in their data.
    • The long awaited European Asset Quality Review (AQR) bank stress tests were released early Sunday and  were in line with the data leaked on Friday  The data have had no no impact on traders.
    • Markets have been setting up for the Fed meeting decision on Wednesday. Market stability should be important for the FOMC. .
    • On Wednesday, the focus will be the latest FOMC decision and late in the U.S. day a RBNZ policy announcement.
    • Key items Thursday include German unemployment data and U.S. GDP.
    • Friday sees Japanese CPI, a BOJ policy decision, Eurozone flash HICP, U.S. Personal Income data and the final October University of Michigan Survey, Over the weekend, North American clocks are turned back one.
    • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
    Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
    TUESDAY
    00:50 JP Retail Sales Retail demand
    12:30 US Dur Goods Mfg demand
    14:00 US CB Consumer Conf Key Sentiment Survey
    WEDNESDAY
    18:00 FRB Fed Rates No Rate Change
    21:00 NZ RBNZ Cash Rates
    23:50 JP Ind Out  Production
    THURSDAY
    08:55  DE unemployment
    12:30  US Initial Claims
    12:30  US GDP broadest growth measure
    FRIDAY
    00:30 JP Core CPI BOJ target
    04:30 JP Bank of Japan No Rate change seen
    07:00 DE Ret Sales Consumer demand
    10:00 EZ FL HICP  ECB target
    12:30  US PCE deflator Fed Target
    13:55  US U Mich final Key Sentiment Survey

    FOREX CALENDAR
    Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
    28/10/14 0:50 A JP Retail Sales yy 1.00% 1.00%
    28/10/14 12:30 A US Dur Goods 0.30% -18.20%
    28/10/14 12:30 A US D/G ex-trans 0.50% 0.40%
    28/10/14 13:00 B US Case-Shil 20 yy 0.10% -0.50%
    28/10/14 14:00 C US Richmond Fed 11 14
    28/10/14 14:00 A US CB Consumer Conf 87 86
    28/10/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 2-yr n/a n/a
    28/10/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
    29/10/14 0:00 A WEDNESDAY
    29/10/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
    29/10/14 14:30 A US EIA Distillate mn n/a 7.1
    29/10/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a 1.3
    29/10/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a 1.05
    29/10/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 0.867
    29/10/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 5-yr n/a n/a
    29/10/14 18:00 A FRB Fed Rates 0.25% 0.25%
    29/10/14 21:00 A NZ RBNZ Cash Rate 3.50% 3.50%
    29/10/14 23:50 A JP Ind Out p yy n/a -3.30%
    30/10/14 0:00 A THURSDAY
    30/10/14 8:00 A CH KOF Ind n/a 99.1
    30/10/14 8:55 A DE unem Kchg 4 12
    30/10/14 8:55 A DE unempl rate 6.70% 6.70%
    30/10/14 10:00 B EZ Cons Conf -11.1 -11.1
    30/10/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a n/a
    30/10/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 281 283
    30/10/14 12:30 A US GDP 2Q14 2.00% 2.50%
    30/10/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 94
    30/10/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 7-yr n/a n/a


    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

    See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.



    John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of Global-View.com. He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
    Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved

     

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    Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


    Tue 21 Nov
    15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
    23:00 US- Yellen Speech
    Wed 22 Nov
    13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
    13:30 US- Durable Goods
    15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
    15:30 US- EIA Crude
    19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
    Thu 23 Nov
    US/JP- Holiday
    All Day flash PMIs
    13:30 CA- Retail Sales
    Fri 24 Nov
    All Day flash PMIs
    09:00 DE- IFO Survey
    US- Early Closes

    Forex Trading Outlook


    Potential Trading Opportunities


    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


    John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

    EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

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