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Wednesday October 29, 2014 - 11:03:42 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Waiting for the Fed


Wed, 29 Oct 2014 5:37 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Fed was posed to end its QE3 program but dealers noted that bond buying would remain a tool in the central bank's monetary-policy arsenal
- Japan Sept Preliminary Industrial Production hits a 8-month high with MoM: +2.7% v +2.2%e

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (FR) France Oct Consumer Confidence: 85 v 86e
- (SE) Sweden Oct Consumer Confidence: 98.0 v 100.8e; Manufacturing Confidence:107.7 v 102.0e; Economic Tendency Survey: 104.3 v 100.7e
- (ES) Spain Sept Adjusted Retail Sales Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.9%e; Retail Sales Y/Y: % v -0.9% prior
- (HU) Hungary Sept Unemployment Rate: 7.4% v 7.6% prior
- (NO) Norway Aug AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.7% v 3.5%e
- (NO) Norway Sept Retail Sales W/Auto Fuel M/M: -0.1% v +0.7%e
- (IS) Iceland Oct CPI M/M: +0.1% v --0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.8% prior
- (UK) Sept Net Consumer Credit: 0.9B v 0.8Be; Net Lending: 1.8B v 2.1Be
- (UK) Sept Mortgage Approvals: 61.3K v 62.0Ke
- (UK) Sept M4 Money Supply M/M: -0.7% v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: -2.5% v -1.5% prior; M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualized: 3.5% v 2.6%e

Fixed Income:
- None seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.2%
, FTSE 100 +0.4% at 6,431, DAX +0.7% at 9,130, CAC-40 +0.2% at 4,119, IBEX-35 -0.2% at 19,418, FTSE MIB -0.3% at 19,414, SMI +0.3% at 8,666, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,979]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open slightly higher amid positive leads from the US and ahead of Fed decision, Markets later pare gains led by the periphery, Sanofi continues to decline, Earnings Recap (Deutsche Bank mixed, Statoil below ests, Total above ests, Ipsen raises outlook, Air France below ests, Schneider Electric sales above ests, BBVA below ests, STM Microelectronics issues weak outlook, Saipem below ests), US morning earnings (Eaton, Garmin, Hersey, Hess, ADP, SodaStream, Ralph Lauren)

By Sector
- Financials
[Deutsche Bank DBK.DE -1% (mixed results), BBVA BBVA.ES -1% (9-month results below ests)
- Industrials [Schneider Electric SU.FR +3% (Q3 sales above ests)
- Energy [Total FP.FR +1% (Q3 profits above ests); Statoil STL.NO -1.5% (Q3 results below ests)
- Technology [Software AG SOW.DE +6% (Q3 profits above ests), Dialog Semi DLG.DE +4% (strong Q3 results); Fugro FUR.NL -18% (canceled dividend), STMicroelectronics STM.FR -6% (cautious outlook)
- Basic Materials/Resources [Eramet ERA.FR +1.5% (Q3 sales rose)
- Consumer Discretionary [Next NXT.UK -2.5% (cautious outlook), Air France AF.FR -1% (Q3 results below ests)
- Healthcare [Sanofi SAN.FR -3% (CEO resigned)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Industrials +0.9%, Consumer Cyclical +0.5%, Energy +0.4%, Telecom +0.3%, Basic Materials +0.2%, Utilities +0.1%, Technology +0.1%, Financials flat; Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.4%]

***Speakers***
- ECB Q3 banking lending survey:
Net credit easing for all loan types and expected to ease more in Q4
- SNB's Zurbruegg: Gold initiative would hurt the credibility of the Central Bank
- Hungary Central Bank to extend the funding for growth program for 1 year
- US Treasury Sec Lew: US economic indicators were very positive on trend and not at risk of major setback in the immediate future. He added that a strong dollar was "good" for the US, driven by core economic strength
- Ukraine President Porosenko's party proposed changes to the gas supply rules and sught to cap gas import from any one state
- EU Energy Min Oettinger: Ukraine must earmark funds received from IMF and EU for gas purchases
- OPEC Sec General El-Badri: Did not see a big change in oil market fundamentals; OPEC was currently reviewing situation. Supply growth did not explain the decline in oil prices but did not have a price target; that was determined by the market. He added that if oil stayed at $85/barrel a lot of oil would go out of the market

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX price action was in a pause mode ahead of the FOMC rate decision. The Fed was posed to end its QE3 program but dealers noted that bond buying would remain a tool in the central bank's monetary-policy arsenal and could employed again in times of deep economic trouble
- Additionally the decision by the Riksbank on Tuesday to cut its Repo Rate to zero to fight the risk of deflation rekindled some speculation of further ECB measures on that front.
- Russia RUB currency (Ruble) continued to hit fresh record lows against USD and Euro while the Russian 10-year bond year rose to test 10%

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) Reportedly EU has no plans to reject France and Italy 2015 budgets, no serious noncompliance issues in budgets after officials address EU concerns
- (EU) Plan for a transaction (Tobin) tax has stalled over disagreement on what to do with new revenue, issued must be sorted out to meet end of year deadline
- (IT) To gain EU budget approval, Italy reportedly to cut 2015 deficit goal to 2.6% of GDP from 2.9%
- (UK) BoE's Cunliffe: BOE can maintain the stimulus for longer than previously thought; can keep stimulus on longer due to softening data on inflation and pay
- (CN) World Bank warned that China growth slowdown could be structural rather than cyclical, but that there is room for stimulus if growth slows sharply. World Bank estimated reform to increase growth by as much as 3.5% over a five year period.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (UR) Russia and Ukraine hold energy talks
- (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BCB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Selic Target Rate unchanged at 11.00%
- (PT Bank of Portugal Bank Lending Survey
- 06:00 (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) to sell 6.5B in 6-month Bills
- 06:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day USD liquidity tender
- 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing
- 06:00 (SE) Sweden to sell Bonds
- 06:15 (EU) ECB allotment in 3-month LTRO
- 06:30 (DE) Germany to sell 4.0B in 1% 2024 Bunds
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 24th: No est v +11.6% prior
- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Sept Retail Sales M/M: No est v -2.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 6.8% prior
- 07:00 (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Dep Gov Nicolaisen
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Tax Collections (BRL): 91.0Be v 94.4B prior
- 07:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Sept Manufacturing Index Y/Y: +0.9%e v -4.9% prior
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Sept Total Copper Production: No est v 483.2K prior
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.7% prior
- 08:00 (RU) Russia cancelled planned OFZ auction Bond
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Sept Industrial Product Price M/M: -0.2%e v +0.2% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: -0.8%e v -2.2% prior
- 09:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 10:00 (BE) Belgium Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.0% prior
- 10:30 (BR) Brazil Weekly Currency Flows
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $15B in 2-Year Floating Rate Notes
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 2-Year Bonds
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 5-Year Notes
- 13:30 (UK) BOE's Haldane in Birmingham
- 14:00 (US) FOMC Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 0.25% (QE3 Pace: $0.0Be v $15B prior; Pace of Treasury Purchases: $0Be v $10B prior; Pace of MBS Purchases: $0Be v $5B prior)
- 16:00 (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Official Cash Rate unchanged at 3.50%
- 16:15(CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Gov Poloz testifies to Senate Committee
- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Sept Industrial Production M/M: +2.1%e v -3.8% prior; Y/Y: +2.8%e v -2.8% prior



 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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