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U.S. GDP Data Beat Estimates. German Unemployment Improves. Heavy Friday Docket
|U.S. GDP Data Beat Estimates. German Unemployment Improves. Heavy Friday Docket|
October 31, 2014 00:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map
15:50 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Markets are in a MIXED RISK posture late in Europe. Headline U.S. preliminary 3Q14 GDP data were a stronger than expected 3.50%, but analysts dismissed the report due to an unexpected surge in government spending due to defense. Defense spending can be very lumpy. In the Far East, equities ended mostly higher. European bourses are trading mixed late. U.S. shares are mixed as well at this hour.
U.S. 10-yr yields are lower. 10-yr bund and gilts yields are down. Peripheral European bond yields are mostly up.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- CPI, Bank of Japan, DE- Retail Sales, EZ- HICP, Unemployment, CA- GDP, US- Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, University of Mich
- Friday sees Japanese CPI, a BOJ policy decision, Eurozone flash HICP, U.S. Personal Income data and the final October University of Michigan Survey. Over the weekend, North American clocks are turned back one hour.
- U.S. 3Q14 GDP outpaced street expectations on a strong increase in defense spending that likely will not be sustained.
- German unemployment data were better than expected but the unemployment rate remains remarkably steady.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
08:55 DE unemployment
12:30 US Initial Claims
12:30 US GDP broadest growth measure
00:30 JP Core CPI BOJ target
04:30 JP Bank of Japan No Rate change seen
07:00 DE Ret Sales Consumer demand
10:00 EZ FL HICP ECB target
12:30 US PCE deflator Fed Target
13:55 US U Mich final Key Sentiment Survey
||Bank of Japan
||Ret Sales mo
||Ret Sales yr
||FL HICP yy
||FL HICP core yy
||PCE defl y
||U Mich final
Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
John M. Bland is a founding partner of Global-View.com. He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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