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Friday October 31, 2014 - 10:23:21 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Monetary policy divergence intensifies as BOJ eases further

Fri, 31 Oct 2014 5:25 AM EST

- Risk appetite gets a little help from central banks
- Japan BOJ unexpectedly eased its policy further; sends Niikei225 Index to 7 year high and yen to 7-year lows
- World largest pension fund Japan GPIF formally announces changes to its allocation model panel approved target allocation changes; to increase domestic stocks to 25% from 12%; raise foreign stocks to 25%; cut domestic bonds to 35% and foreign bonds 15%

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (JP) Japan Sept Annualized Housing Starts: 880K v 848Ke; Y/Y:14.3% v -17.2%e; Construction Orders Y/Y: -40.3 v 8.6% prior
- (RU) Russia Oct Manufacturing PMI: 50.3 v 50.0e (4th straight month of expansion)
- (DE) Germany Sept Retail Sales M/M: -3.2% v -0.9%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 1.2%e
- (FR) France Sept Consumer Spending M/M: -0.8% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.9%e
- (FR) France Sept PPI M/M: +0.5% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.4% v -1.7%e
- (TR) Turkey Sept Trade Balance: -$6.9B v -$7.1Be
- (IT) Italy Sept Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 12.6% v 12.4%e
- (NO) Norway Oct Unemployment Rate: 2.7% v 2.6%e
- (NO) Norway Sept Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 5.3% v 5.3%e

Fixed Income:
- None seen

Indices [Stoxx50 +1.6%,
FTSE 100 +1.1% at 6,537, DAX +1.5% at 9,260, CAC-40 +1.9% at 4,219, FTSE MIB +1.5% at 19,494, SMI +1.1% at 8,814, S&P 500 Futures +1.1% at 2,010]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open sharply higher on easing measures by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), S&P 500 Futures test prior record high, BNP rises on better than expected results, Anheuser-Busch InBev weighed down by weaker than expected results, RBS confirmed that Q3 results were above expectations, UK banks in focus ahead of BoE comments on banking supervision, Upcoming Eurozone Oct advance CPI, US morning earnings (Hilton, AON, Legg Mason, Oshkosh, AbbVie, Exxon, Chevron, Clorox)

By Sector
- Financials
[BNP BNP.FR +1.5% (Q3 results above ests), RBS.UK +1.5% (Q3 results above ests)]
- Consumer Discretionary [International Consolidated Airlines IAG.UK +2.5% (raised outlook), WPP WPP.UK flat (Q3 sales above ests, cautious outlook); SuperGroup SGP.UK -10% (cautious outlook), Anheuser-Busch InBev ABI.BE -2.5% (Q3 results below ests)]
- Industrials [Nokian Tyres NRE1V.FI -4% (Q3 results below ests)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Lonza LONN.CH -5% (cut sales forecast)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Energy +1.6%, Utilities +1.6%, Industrials +1.5%, Telecom +1.4%, Basic Materials +1.4%, Consumer Cyclical +1.3%, Technology +1.3%, Financials +1.3%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +1%]

- BOJ eased its monetary policy further and expanded its monetary base from 60-70T range to 80T in a close 5-4 vote.
The central bank also announced a tripling in its purchases of exchanged-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts (REITs). It also and extended the average duration of JGB purchases to 7-10years from 6-8years
- BOJ Gov Kuroda post rate decision press conference stated that today's expanded easing to would help it ensure to reach its 2%inflation target and saw room for more policy action if needed. Easing aimed at ending the deflationary mindset and it saw a risk of delay in changing this mindset. He saw no need to change the 2% in two year time. He conceded that the impact of the April sales tax increase had been somewhat prolonged. Reiterated BOJ action was not targeting the JPY currency (yen) exchange rate and that a weak yen had been a positive to Japan overall. Impact from weak yen on higher import costs being offset by decline in oil and commodity prices to a degree
- Japan BOJ Semi-annual outlook on economic activity cut its FY14/15 Real GDP from 1.0% to 0.5% (**below 0.6% speculated earlier) and lowered its core CPI views for the next two fiscal years
- World largest pension fund Japan GPIF formally announced changes to its allocation model it would increase domestic stocks to 25% from 12%; raise foreign stocks to 25%; cut domestic bonds to 35% and foreign bonds 15%. It did not comment on timing of changes as it had yet to be decided
- Japan Econ Min Amari: PM Abe would order fiscal stimulus if found to be necessary
- ECB's Nowotny (Austria) Never say never when asked about QE
- Turkey Central Bank Gov Basci Quarterly Inflation Report: To ontinue tight monetary policy stance. Earlier jump in core inflation mostly reversed in Q3but food inflation the reason for higher CPI. He foresaw a decline in CPI in 2015 aided by declines in oil, food prices and end of TRY currency weakness

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Policy divergence among the G3 central banks has kept the USD on a firm tone. The surprise additional easing from the BOJ sent the USD/JPY above the 111.50 for a 7-year high. The BoJ shocked markets with expansion in annual asset purchases from 50B to 80B coupled with tripling in its purchases of exchanged-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts (REITs).
The USD strength exerted itself into the other major pairs. EUR/USD hovered around the 1.2550 area ahead of key EU employment and inflation data due out later in the session. The recent data out of Europe during the week indicated that deflation threat still lingered. Even ECB hawk Nowotny commented that never say never when asked about QE
- Spot gold finally mustered the momentum to break below the $1,180 level to hit a 4-year low

Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) IMF: Discussions with Greece continue on potential aid; Greece may need precautionary support
- (UR) Ukraine, Russia and EU reached a gas supply agreement
- (CN) PBoC Dep Gov Yi Gang (also head of FX regulator SAFE): Bad debt at China major banks is mounting

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (NO) Norway Sovereign Debt Rating published by S&P, Fitch
- (NL) Netherlands Sovereign Debt Rating might be published by Moody's
- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell I/L 2022, 2025 and 2038 Bonds
- 06:00 (EU) Euro Zone Sept Unemployment Rate: 11.5%e v 11.5% prior
- 06:00 (EU) Euro Zone Oct Advance (Flash) CPI Estimate Y/Y: 0.4%e v 0.3% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: 0.8%e v 0.8% prior

- 06:00 (IT) Italy Oct Preliminary CPI NIC incl. tobacco M/M: -0.1%e v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: -0.1%e v -0.2% prior
- 06:00 (IT) Italy Oct Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1%e v +1.9% prior; Y/Y: -0.1%e v -0.1% prior
- 06:00 (BE) Belgium Sept Unemployment Rate: No est v 8.5% prior
- 06:00 (GR) Greece Aug Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: No est v % prior; Retail Sales Value Y/Y: No est v 1.5% prior
- 06:00 (MY) Malaysia Sept M3 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 4.8% prior
- 06:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) announces upcoming Bill/bond auctions
- 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing
- 06:30 (IN) India Sept Fiscal Deficit (INR) Crore: No est v 7.3B prior
- 06:30 (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise One-week Auction Rate by 50bps to 8.50%
- 07:00 (IT) Italy Sept PPI M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.0% prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Sept PPI Manufacturing M/M: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.5% prior
- 07:00 (EU) ECB Announcement related to LTRO repayments: 4.5Be
- 07:05 (UK) DMO to sell combined 3.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills

- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Oct 24th:
- 07:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Sept Trade Balance (ZAR): -11.5Be v -16.3B prior
- 08:30 (US) Sept Personal Income: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior; Personal Spending: 0.1%e v 0.5% prior
- 08:30 (US) Sept PCE Deflator M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.5% prior
- 08:30 (US) Sept PCE Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.5% prior
- 08:30 (US) Q3 Employment Cost Index: 0.5%e v 0.7% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Aug GDP M/M: 0.0%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.5% prior

- 08:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): -30.1Be v -31.5B prior; Primary Budget Balance: -12.5Be v -14.5B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: 35.4%e v 35.9% prior
- 09:00 (UK) BOE announces outcome of Basel Committee on banking supervision
- 09:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Oct Inflation Expectations: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior
- 09:00 (US) Oct ISM Milwaukee: 60.00e v 63.18 prior
- 09:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces upcoming bond auction
- 09:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 09:45 (US) Oct Chicago Purchasing Manager: 60.0e v 60.5 prior
- 09:55 (US) Oct Final University of Michigan Confidence: 86.4e v 86.4 prelim
- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Rate unchanged 3.00%

- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 2.604T prior
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Sept National Unemployment Rate: No est v 8.9% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 9.3%e v 9.5% prior
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Stats Agency (Istat) Updates Economic Forecasts
- 12:00 (IT) (IT) Bank of Italy Gov Visco speaks in Milan
- 12:30 (EU) Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem with France PM Valls
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Sept Industrial Production M/M: No est v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: -2.0%e v -2.9% prior
- 20:00 (KR) South Korea Oct Trade Balance: $4.9Be v $3.4B prior; Exports Y/Y: 1.5%e v 6.9% prior (revised from 6.8%); Imports Y/Y: -1.4%e v +8.0% prior
- 21:00 (CN) China Oct Manufacturing PMI: 51.1e v 51.1 prior
- (AR) Argentina Sept Construction Activity M/M: No est v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.6% prior
- (MX) Mexico Sept YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v -353.4B prior


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