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Wednesday August 24, 2005 - 12:00:04 GMT
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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• US durable goods orders top the billing today, consensus is for a decline of 1.5% in July.

• European industrial new orders rebounded, in line with Tuesday’s stronger ZEW survey.

• UK’s August CBI manufacturing order balance deteriorated to –29, the worst since October 2003.

• Sweden’s Riksbank kept rates on hold, said it is in no rush to hike after June’s 50bp cut...

Market Outlook

EUR-USD pulled back to 1.2163 in early London trading after the USD found a bid again during the Asia session. However,the Eurozone data came in stronger than expected and is lending the EUR some support bringing 1.2250-1.2260 backinto view in range-bound activity. Friday’s 1.2127 low remains key to break to keep the current move going for a slide below 1.20 over the next week or so, while a break of 1.23 would bring 1.25 back into view after all. Industrial new orders rose 3.1% in June, much better than +2.2% consensus, with the “real” data starting to reinforce the story coming from the confidence surveys. The Ifo survey comes out on Thursday. The INSEE survey showed that French industry executives are not quite as confident, forecasting a rise in investment of 2% this year, down from the 3% increase forecast in the April survey, due to the firm EUR and high oil prices.

UK – The CBI manufacturing order books balance deteriorated to –29 in August, the worst reading since October 2003. Expectations had been for a pick-up to -18, from –20 in July.Given the better data from Europe, this is helping EUR-GBP tostage a comeback and a sustained break of 0.6800 wouldhighlight potential for a rebound to the 0.6840-0.6850 zone.

USD-JPY pushed up again, as the Nikkei consolidated overnight near the highs and a retest of last Friday’s 110.85 high looks on the cards. Ability to regain that area would highlight potential for a steeper retracement towards 111.50, then 112 next. Losses through 110 would be needed to leave the USD on a softer footing. EUR-JPY saw a foray above 135 in Asian trading but struggled to hold the break, some scope for a squeeze to 135.50 but the upticks are viewed as corrective and a retest of Monday’s 133.50 low still looks likely later.

Sweden – The Riksbank did keep rates on hold at 1.5% on Wednesday but noted that the mild inflation outlook meant it is in no hurry to raise rates again after a 50bp cut in June. The Riksbank said signs of economic recovery since June suggested that inflation forecasts will have to be raised due to higher than expected growth (after the last rate cut) and to higher oil prices but that inflation remains low and should still return to the 2% target level "a couple of years ahead".

Day Ahead
US – Fed’s Michael Moskow gives his ‘economic update’ in Illinois but should stick to the Fed’s recent script. July durable goods are also due, with estimates centring on a decline of 1.5%, the first decline since March, after a 2.8% rise in June. Aircraft orders fell in July and that will take its toll on the headline number. Consensus for the ex-transport number is for a 0.8% fall in July, after a 4.7% surge in June. New home sales for July are also due and will be of interest after the steeper than expected slide in existing home sales in July. July existing home sales fell 2.6% to a 7.16mn unit annual pace (7.25mn consensus). Bear in mind though that this was still the third fastest pace of sales on record, with the median price hitting an all-time high and the supply of homes for sale up 2.6% at the highest level in 17 years.

Eurozone – the Belgian August business confidence index is scheduled for release and is forecast to see its third consecutive monthly advance. The index is viewed as a good proxy for the Eurozone as a whole.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

DE CPI states (Aug, prel) m/m from today
US Durable orders (Jul) m/m 08.30 -1.5%
US Durables ex-transport (Jul) m/m 08.30 -0.8%
BE Business confidence (Aug) 09:00 -9.5
US New home sales (Jul) 10.00 1328k
US Fed’s Moskow speaks 18:00

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Aug 14) -9 -7 last
JP CSPI (Jul) y/y -0.7% -0.5% last
DE Import prices (Jul) y/y +4.7% +4.7%
FR INSEE Investment survey (Q3) q/q +2% +3%
SE Riksbank interest rate decision 1.5% 1.5%
EU Industrial new orders (Jun) m/m +3.1% +2.2%
GB CBI manu trends survey (Aug) -29.0 -18.0
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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