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Monday November 3, 2014 - 11:45:48 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Markets consolidate after last's week euphoria following BOJ easing; Major EMU PMI Manufacturing were mixed

Mon, 03 Nov 2014 5:15 AM EST

- China PMI data comes in soft (Official Govt Oct Manufacturing at a 5-month low and its 3rd straight MoM decline 3rd consecutive decline while Non-manufacturing hits a 9-month low (53.8 v 54.0 prior)
- Major European PMI Manufacturing data for Oct was mixed (France & UK beat while Germany and European missed expectations)
- Market feels ECB QE is inevitable at some future point (**Note: ECB meets this week)
- USD hit trend highs during a thin Asian session (Japan out for holiday)

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (IN) India Oct Manufacturing PMI: 51.6 v 51.0 prior
- (IE) Ireland Oct Manufacturing PMI: 56.6 v 55.7 prior
- (TH) Thailand Oct CPI M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.6%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e
- (SE) Sweden Oct PMI Manufacturing: 52.1 v 52.5e
- (NL) Netherlands Oct PMI Manufacturing: 53.0 v 52.2 prior (three month high)
- (HU) Hungary Oct Manufacturing PMI: 54.9 v 52.7 prior (15th straight month of expansion and highest since 2007)
- (TR) Turkey Oct Manufacturing PMI: 51.0e v 50.4 prior
- (PL) Poland Oct Manufacturing PMI: 50.0e v 49.5 prior
- (TR) Turkey Oct CPI M/M: 1.9% v 1.9%e; Y/Y: 9.0% v 8.9%e; CPI Core Index Y/Y: 9.0% v 9.0%e
- (ES) Spain Oct Manufacturing PMI: 52.6 v 52.2e (11th month of expansion)
- (CZ) Czech Republic Oct Manufacturing PMI: 54.4 v 55.0e (18th month of expansion)
- (CH) Swiss Oct PMI Manufacturing: 55.3 v 51.2e
- (HK) Hong Kong Sept Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 4.8% v 2.0%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 6.6% v 2.0%e
- (IT) Italy Oct Manufacturing PMI: 49.0 v 50.6e (moves back into contraction and lowest since May 2013)
- (FR) France Oct Final Manufacturing PMI: 48.5 v 47.3e (confirms sixth straight month of contraction)
- (DE) Germany Oct Final Manufacturing PMI: 51.4 v 51.8e (confirms its returned to expansion territory)
- (EU) Euro Zone Oct Final Manufacturing PMI: 50.6 v 50.7e (confirms the 16th month of expansion)

- (GR) Greece Oct Manufacturing PMI: 48.8 v 48.4 prior (2nd month of contraction)
- (UK) Oct PMI Manufacturing: 53.2 v 51.4e (20th month of expansion and highest since July)

Fixed Income:
- None seen

Indices [ Stoxx50 -0.5%
, FTSE 100 -0.2% at 6,528, DAX -0.5% at 9,284, CAC-40 -0.5% at 4,213, IBEX-35 -0.5% at 10,426, FTSE MIB -1% at 19,554, SMI -0.4% at 8,802, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 2,009]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open mostly lower following Friday's sharp gains and amid weaker earnings, Euro Zone PMI manufacturing below ests, Commodities lower amid stronger dollar and China data, M&A (Publics to acquire Sapient Corp, Altice confirms bid for Portugal Telecom), Banca Monte Paschi shares volatile amid capital raise speculation, Holcim declines on weaker than expected earnings, Ryanair raises outlook, HSBC misses estimates on higher operating costs

By Sector
- Basic Materials/Resources
[Holcim HOLN.CH -1.5% (Q3 results below ests)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Publicis PUB.FR -2.5% (bid for Sapient Corp); Ryanair RYA.UK +8% (raised outlook)]
- Industrials [PostNL PNL.NL -4% (Q3 results below ests)]
- Telecom [Portugal Telecom PTC.PT +7% (bid from Altice)]
- Financials [HSBC HSBA.UK flat (Q3 profits below ests)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Utilities -0.6%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.5%, Technology -0.4%, Basic Materials -0.4%, Consumer Cyclical -0.3%, Energy -0.2%, Financials -0.2%, Telecom -0.1%; Industrials +0.1%]

- Italy Stats Agency (Istat) updates its Economic Forecasts and cut its view for GDP for the 2014 thru 2016 period.
Cut its 2014 GDP forecast to -0.3% (from -0.1%) (**Note: would be the country's third straight year of recession) and cuts 2015 GDP growth view from +1.0% to +0.5%. It noted that Govt 2015 budget to have no positive impact on growth in 2015-16 period
- EU official commented that a completely clean exit of bailout for Greece was and a unlikely and a decision was needed by early Dec. He also noted that Eurogroup to meet on Nov 21st to discuss 2015 budgets
- Bank of Korea (BOK) reiterated its view to closely watch the effects of a weak Japanese Yen currency on its economy and financial system stability
- Iran President Rouhani: Nuclear agreement on all issues could be reached by Nov 24th if all parties have 'serious will'

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD was in consolidation mode following last week's spat of encouraging global data and Japan's unexpected expansion in its QQE program
. The greenback did hit fresh trend highs during the Asian session with dealers citing continued favorable yield differentials.
- The GBP/USD found its groove and appeared to be poised to snap a 3-day losing streak after its PMI Manufacturing data registered a beat.

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) Reform delays amongst EMU governments said to be causing difficulties for ECB monetary policy; a 3T balance sheet target is not likely at the moment, given the slowness of reform efforts
- (GR) Greece Fin Min Hardouvelis: To lay out the terms of the relationship with the EU and IMF post-bailout in early 2015
- (ES) Catalan Republican Left party chief Junqueras warns Catalonia may drive Spain to default in the absence of negotiations regarding its push for independence
-(UK) German Fin Min Schaeuble: There is a limit to how much the EU can do to keep the UK inside the union

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IN) World Economic Forum (WEF) India Economic Summit
- (JP) Japan GPIF Pension fund working group to hold first meeting of governance
- (PT) ECB's Costa (Portugal) in Lisbon
- Fed Chair Yellen will meet Obama at the White House to discuss the outlook for the US economy (closed door meeting)
- (CZ) Czech Oct Budget Balance (CZK): No est v -34.4B prior
- (RO) Romania Oct Currency Reserves: No est v $34.3B prior
- (ZA) South Africa Oct Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: No est v 11.5% prior
- (IT) Italy Oct Budget Balance: No est v -18.1B prior
- (CL) Chile Central Bank Meeting Minutes
- (BR) Brazil Sept CNI Capacity Utilization: No est v 80.5% prior
- 05:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 06:00 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble at event commemorating the fall of the Berlin Wall
- 06:00 (NO) Norway Oct Manufacturing PMI: 48.9e v 49.4 prior
- 06:00 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell combined 2.0-4.0B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Oct Manufacturing PMI: No est v 49.3 prior
- 07:00 (PT) ECB's Constancio (Portugal) in Madrid
- 07:00 (US) Auto preview
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming bond auction
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell to sell combined 6.0-7.2B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills
- 09:30 (MX) Mexico Manufacturing PMI: No est v 52.6 prior
- 09:30 (CA) Canada Oct RBC Manufacturing PMI: No est v 53.5 prior
- 09:30 (US) Fed's Evans at Chicago conference
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-day main Refi at fixed 0.05%
- 09:45 (US) Oct Final Markit Manufacturing PMI: 56.2e v 56.2 prelim
- 10:00 (US) Oct ISM Manufacturing: 56.5e v 56.2e prior; Prices Paid: 58.0e v 59.5 prior
- 10:00 (US) Sept Construction Spending M/M: +0.7%e v -0.8% prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Total Remittances: $2.0Be v $2.0B prior
- 11:00 (EU) ECB's Nouy (SSM Supervisor) in Brussels
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $54B in 3-Month and 6-month Bills
- 12:00 (BR) Brazil Oct Trade Balance: -$1.4B v -$0.9B prior; Total Exports: $18.6Be v $19.6B prior; Total Imports: $20.0Be v $20.6B prior
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Oct New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v 3.3% prior
- 12:30 (AT) ECB's Nowotny (Austria) gives Keynote on Economic Policy
- 12:40 (US) Fed's Fisher on monetary policy in NY
- 12:50 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Gov Poloz
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Oct IMEF Manufacturing Index (Seasonally Adj): 52.6e v 52.7 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index (Seasonally Adj: 51.8e v 51.8 prior
- 17:00 (US) Oct Total Vehicle Sales: 16.60Me v 16.34M prior; Domestic Vehicle sales: 13.20Me v 12.89M prior
- 18:00 (KR) South Korea Oct CPI M/M: -0.1%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.1% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.9%e v 1.9% prior
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Sept Retail Sales M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior
- 20:35 (JP) Japan Manufacturing PMI: No est v 52.8 prelim
- 22:30 (AU) RBA Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Cash Rate Target unchanged at 2.50%


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