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Tuesday November 4, 2014 - 11:48:01 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: EU Commission cuts 2014 and 2015 growth and inflation outlook

Tue, 04 Nov 2014 5:23 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- RBA left its Cash Rate Target unchanged at 2.50% (as expected for its 14th straight pause) and reiterated a period of rate stability was likely and tweak its language on the AUD as it removed that the currency was high by historical standards"
- Spain unemployment rises for the 3rd straight month (+79.2K vs. +73.0Ke)
- Disinflationary pressures remain intact; oil hits 3-year low in electronic trade overnight
- EU Commission Autumn Outlook cuts GDP and inflation forecasts for both 2014 and 2015


***Key Economic Data in session***
- (ES) Spain Oct Net Unemployment M/M: +79.2K v +73.0Ke (3rd straight rise in employment)
- (UK) Oct Construction PMI: 61.4 v 63.5e (18th month of expansion but lowest since May)
- (EU) Euro Zone Sept PPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -1.4% v -1.5%e

Fixed Income:
- (SE) Sweden opened its books to sell on USD denominated Nov 2017 bonds; guidance seen at -6bps under mid-swaps
- (IE) Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA) opened its books to sell EUR benchmarked May 2030 bond; guidance seen +105-110bps to mid-swaps
- (AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) sold total 1.1B vs. 1.1B indicated in 2019 and 2024 RAGB bonds
- (EU) ECB allotted 98.2B in 7-day Main Refi at fixed 0.05% vs. 96.5Be

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.1%
, FTSE 100 +0.1% at 6,494, DAX +0.3% at 9,284, CAC-40 flat at 4,195, IBEX-35 flat at 10,379, FTSE MIB flat at 19,360, SMI +0.4% at 8,788, S&P 500 Futures flat at 2,010]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower following drop seen on Monday's session, Markets later pare losses led by periphery, Lower commodity prices weigh on energy firms

By Sector
- Healthcare
[Fresenius SE FRE.DE -1% (reaffirmed outlook)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Hugo Boss BOSS.DE -6% (cut outlook)]
- Industrials [Continental CON.DE +2% (raised outlook); BMW BMW.DE -1.5% (reaffirmed outlook)]
- Energy [REC Solar REC.NO +9% (Q3 profits rose)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Utilities +1%, Basic Materials +0.9%, Industrials +0.6%, Financials +0.5%, Telecom +0.4%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.2%, Consumer Cyclical flat; Energy -0.9%, Technology -0.1%]

***Speakers***
- EU Commission issued its Autumn economic forecasts and cut the Euro Zone 2014 and 2015 GDP growth outlook. 2014 GDP growth outlook was cut from +1.2% to +0.8% and 2015 was cut from 1.7% to 1.1%

- ECB's Coeure (France): Healthy banking system crucial for recovery in Eurozone. Reiterated view that EU govts must stick to budgets and structural reforms; lack of fiscal, structural policies could delay recovery. He also reiterated view that ECB was fully committed to 3% inflation target
- German Chancellor Merkel: Euro Zone economy has not developed as we had hoped due to internal and geo-political factors
- Spain Fin Min de Guindos: Spain 2015 GDP growth seen at 2.0%. Weaker Euro currency and lower commodity prices to help boost growth
- EU Commission amended its view on Belgium 2014 budget deficit to GDP from 2.9% to 3.0%
- World bank cuts South Africa 2015 GDP forecast from 3.4% to 2.5%
- Japan Govt advisory panel member Ito commented that delay in increasing Japan sales tax would have big political costs. He noted that a delay would not bring sudden surge in interest rates but could risk fiscal credibility. Supported planned timetable for next phase of sales tax hike. Could take measures should economy deteriorates
- Japan PM Abe: Expects BoJ to keep working towards 2% inflation target

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD settled down after the dollar index hit a 4-year high in yesterday's session
. The focus was turning to Thursday's ECB decision. Overall, no action is expected from the ECB. There is some hope that perhaps it might surprise the markets like the BOJ did last week. However, one major analyst noted that with the decision of the European Court of Justice concerning the OMT still pending, the ECB was unlikely to deploy QE at this time
- AUD trading was volatile during the Asian session amid a set of economic data and a policy statement from the RBA. The currency was hammerd by another revision in its unemployment data was rebounded after the RBA removed the language that "AUD remained high by historical standards"
- WTI was at 3-year lows and off another $2/barrel in electronic trade approaching $76.50 per contract

Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) Greece PM Samaras rejected calls by leftist SYRIZA leader Tsipras for snap polls; accuses Tsipras of trying to destabilize Greece among 1st signs of recovery
- (EU) ECB's Nowotny (Austria): ECB should decide to wait and hold off on QE this year

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (PT) ECB's Costa (Portugal) on Portugal economy
- (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with Energy Min Gabriel
- (RO) Romania Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Interest Rates by 25bps to 2.75%
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-month Bills
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 0.8B in I/L 0.5% 2050 Gilts
- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills

- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Industrial Production M/M: 0.2%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: -1.7%e v -5.4% prior
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell 1.0B in 3-month Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia announces weekly OFZ bond auction
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (EU) EU's Van Rompuy in EU Parliament
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Sept Trade Balance: -$40.2Be v -$40.1B prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Sept Int'l Merchandise Trade: -C$0.3Be v -C$0.6B prior

- 08:30 (SG) Singapore Oct Purchasing Managers Index: 50.5e v 50.5 prior; Electronics Sector Index: 51.8e v 51.9 prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:15 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2019, 2023, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Bonds
- 09:45 (US) Oct ISM New York: No est v 63.7 prior
- 10:00 (US) Sept Factory Orders: -0.5%e v -10.1% prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 46.0e v 45.2 prior

- 10:00 (US) Possible revisions to Sept Durable Goods data
- 10:00 (DK) Denmark Oct Foreign Reserves (DKK): No est v 442.4B prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico weekly International Reserves
- 10:30 (CA) Canada to sell in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 11:30 (UK) DMO announces size of upcoming g 2.75% 2024 Gilt
- 14:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel at CDU event
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Oct PPI M/M: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.7% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 19:01 (UK) Oct BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y: No est v -1.8% prior
- 20:45(CN) China Oct HSBC Services PMI: No est v 53.5 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 52.3 prior
- 21:30 (JP) BOJ Gov Kuroda speaks in Tokyo
- (US) Midterm Election Day



 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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