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Wednesday November 5, 2014 - 10:22:01 GMT -

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EZ & UK Service PMI's Disappoint. Republicans Take Charge of U.S. Legislative Agenda. Clouds Hang Over ECB

EZ & UK Service PMI's Disappoint. Republicans Take Charge of U.S. Legislative Agenda. Clouds Hang Over ECB
  November 5, 2014 10:25 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

10:00 GMT- Current Market Conditions
Early in European trading hours, markets are in a mild  RISK-ON posture as markets await the ECB decision Thursday. With the leadership of the central bank in question, there are some uncertainty about what the Bank will be announcing. 

In the Far East, equities ended mixed.  European bourses are trading  higher. U.S. share futures are up at this hour. U.S. 10-yr yields are about steady. 10-yr bund and gilt yields are up.The Peripheral European bond yields are mostly higher.

The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

  • U.S. elections saw the Republicans take control of the Senate and increase its majority in the House. This means the Republicans are now in charge of the legislative agenda, but getting bills passed will be difficult.
  • Service PMI data freon the U.K. and Eurozone have been mildly disappointing today. the data have seen the EUR and GBP slip. U.S. ADP Private Jobs data are due.
  • Reports of dissent within the ECB governing committee raise questions about the ECB meeting on Thursday. The focus of disagreement is said to be irreconcilable differences between President Draghi and BBK President Weidman over QE and Draghi's secretive management style.
  • Key items Thursday include Australian Employment data and monetary policy decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.
  • Friday highlights are U.S. and Canadian Employment data, plus several items from the U.K. and EZ.
  • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.  

Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):

00:50  JP BOJ Minutes detail on BOJ decision
08:50  FR SVC PMI final closely followed survey
08:55  DE SVC PMI final closely followed survey
08:58  EZ SVC PMI final closely followed survey
09:28  GB SVC PMI closely followed survey
13:15  US ADP Jobs NFP predictor
14:45  US Markit SVC PMI closely followed survey
15:00  US ISM SVC PMI closely followed survey
15:30 US EIA Crude impacts Oil prices
01:30 AU Jobless employment data
09:30 GB Ind/Mfg Output production
11:00 GB Bank of England no changes seen
12:45  EZ Europe Cntl Bank key decision
13:30 EZ ECB Webcast press conference
13:30  US Productivity key to growth
13:30  US Initial Claims weekly data
15:00 CA Ivey PMI closely followed survey
09:15  CH CPI SNB targets inflation
09:30 GB Trade External accounts
13:30 CA Jobless Key growth measure
13:30 US Jobless Top U.s. indicator
15:15  FRB Yellen Paris key speech

Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
05/11/14 12:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
05/11/14 13:15 A US ADP Jobs 219 213
05/11/14 14:45 A US Markit SVC PMI 57.3 57.3
05/11/14 15:00 A US ISM SVC PMI 58 58.6
05/11/14 15:30 A US EIA Crude mn n/a 2.01
05/11/14 15:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a -1.21
05/11/14 15:30 A US EIA Distillate mn n/a -5.3
05/11/14 15:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 86.60%
06/11/14 0:00 A THURSDAY
06/11/14 1:30 A AU % Jobless 6.10% 6.10%
06/11/14 1:30 A AU Payrolls -30 21.6
06/11/14 8:00 B DE Factory Ord mm 2.00% -5.70%
06/11/14 8:00 B DE Factory Ord yy -1.10% -1.30%
06/11/14 9:30 A GB Ind Output m 0.40% 0.00%
06/11/14 9:30 A GB Ind Output y 1.60% 2.50%
06/11/14 9:30 A GB Mfg Output m 0.30% 0.10%
06/11/14 9:30 A GB Mfg Output yy 2.80% 3.90%
06/11/14 11:00 A GB Bank of England 0.50% 0.50%
06/11/14 11:00 A GB QE GBP bn 375 375
06/11/14 12:45 A EZ Europe Cntl Bank 0.05% 0.05%
06/11/14 13:30 A EZ ECB Webcast n/a n/a
06/11/14 13:30 A US Productivity n/a n/a
06/11/14 13:30 A US Initial Claims 283 287
06/11/14 13:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.384
06/11/14 15:00 A CA Ivey PMI n/a 58.6
06/11/14 15:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 87
07/11/14 0:00 A FRIDAY
07/11/14 8:00 B DE Trade eur bn 19 14
07/11/14 8:00 B DE Ind Output yy -0.60% -2.80%
07/11/14 9:15 A CH CPI mm 0.20% 0.00%
07/11/14 9:15 A CH CPI yy n/a 0.10%
07/11/14 9:30 A GB Visible Trade n/a -9.1
07/11/14 9:30 A GB Trade- Non-EU n/a -3.59
07/11/14 10:00 B EZ Retail Sls mm -0.80% 1.25%
07/11/14 10:00 B EZ Retail Sls yy 1.20% 1.90%
07/11/14 13:30 A CA Jobless % 6.80% 6.80%
07/11/14 13:30 A CA Payrolls -7.5 74.1
07/11/14 13:30 A CA F/T Jobs n/a n/a
07/11/14 13:30 A US Jobless % 5.90% 5.90%
07/11/14 13:30 A US Payrolls 228 248
07/11/14 13:30 A US Priv Jobs 219 236
07/11/14 15:15 A FRB Yellen Paris n/a n/a
07/11/14 20:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook

Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

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