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Friday November 7, 2014 - 16:13:09 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Mixed October Jobs Report Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold

Fri, 07 Nov 2014 10:48 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (CL) Chile Oct Trade Balance: $0.6B v $0.7Be; Total Exports: $6.3B v $6.1B prior; Total Imports: $5.8B v $5.5B prior; Copper Exports: $3.3B v $$3.3B prior
- (US) Oct Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +214K v +235Ke; Change in Private Payrolls: +209K v +225Ke; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +15K v +10Ke
- (US) Oct Unemployment Rate: 5.8% v 5.9%e; Underemployment Rate: 11.5% v 11.8% prior; Change in Household Employment: +683K v +232K prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.8% v 62.7% prior
- (US) Oct Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.1%e; Average Weekly Hours: 34.6 v 34.6e
- (CA) Canada Oct Net Change in Employment: +43.1K v -5.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 6.5% v 6.9%e; Full Time Employment Change: +26.5K v +69.3 prior; Part Time Employment Change: +16.5K v +4.8 prior; Participation Rate: 66.0% v 66.0%e
- (MX) Mexico Oct CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 4.3% v 4.3%e; CPI Core M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e

The October US jobs report was good but not great, although it's clear the continued 200K+ employment gains show the US recovery is still rolling. Nevertheless, equity markets are selling the jobs news and risk is off the table. Mining, gold and energy stocks are the only names in the green. European markets look to close at or near their lows, US markets are in the red. US Treasury yields have contracted as money seeks safe haven, with the US ten-year yield down 6 basis points to 2.32%. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.16%, the S&P500 is donw 0.25% and the Nasdaq is down 0.38%

The October US non-farm payrolls total of +214K was slightly less than expected, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.8% from 5.9% its lowest level since early 2008. Analysts highlight that this is the ninth straight month of job growth above 200K, the longest stretch above 200K since 1995. The prior September payrolls were revised slightly higher. Note that weekly earnings and hours worked were pretty much unchanged, however many point out that the unemployment rate is only getting closer to full employment around 5.0-5.2%, boosting pressure for Fed rate hikes.

Fed Chair Yellen avoided much talk about monetary policy in her speech this morning, confining herself to more general remarks. Loretta Mester, Charles Plosser's hawkish successor at the Cleveland Fed spoke last night and again this morning. Mester said she would have liked the "considerable time" language taken out of FOMC statement and accentuated the data dependency of future rate hikes. Mester said she does not want to wait until the Fed's goals are reached before adjusting policy, and sees lift-off sometime in 2015. Note that Dudley also spoke, and reiterated that rates would begin climbing sometime next year.

Among the big gainers this morning are the beaten-down shares of Sears Holdings, with SHLD up nearly 34%. The company said it was exploring the conversion of 200-300 stores to a real estate investment trust (REIT). Sears also offered better-than-expected preliminary Q3 comp guidance.

Shares of processed food giant General Mills are off nearly 4% in the early going after the firm cut its FY15 revenue and EPS forecasts a month ahead of its next quarterly report. The firm warned that its US retail segment would see lower profits for the year. Humana is down 3.8% after its third quarter headline results came in below forecast and it cut its FY14 guidance. Shares of Disney are down 3% at their lows. The firm's overall totals were in line, however key results from the network broadcast unit missed expectations.

***Looking Ahead***
- EU, Belgium and Portugal sovereign debt ratings may be released
- 14:30 (US) Fed's Tarullo to speak on community banking
- 15:00 (US) Sept Consumer Credit: $16.5Be v $13.5B prior

(CN) China Oct Trade Balance: $41.8Be v $30.9B prior; Exports YoY: 10.7%e v 15.3% prior; Imports YoY: 5.0%e v 7.0% prior


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AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 12 Nov 2018
AA CA/US Holiday
Tue 13 Nov 2018
AA 09:30 GB- Employment
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 14 Nov 2018
AA 09:30 GB- CPI
AA 09:30 EZ- GDP
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 15 Nov 2018
A 01:30 AU- Employment
AA 09:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 16 Nov 2018
AA 10:00 EZ- Final HICP
A 14:15 US- Ind Prod/Cap Util

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