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Monday November 10, 2014 - 04:16:22 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 10-Nov-2014 -0415 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
Dow (17,573.93, +0.11%) continues to hold above 17500 as the underlying economic fundamentals continue to strengthen like good jobs data and 6-year low unemployment data.

Nikkei (16,737.14, -0.85%) continues its consolidation above 16,700 lows of last week. This range may continue for few more days as market waits for Japanese GDP data. Any sign of up-tick would indicate windfall gains in next quarter due to substantial Yen-depreciation. Tendency of new highs above 16,400 and the targets of 17,850 extending up to 18,250 remain valid.

Dax (9,291, -0.91%) is probably the weakest of the main indices. It has failed to hold above the crucial 8300, and closed below it.

Shanghai (2,449.45, +1.29%) is up on strong export data. 2515 and 2556 remains the first target on cards.

Nifty (8,337.00, -0.02%) is range-bound as it consolidates above 8,300 levels. It might continue in the range as Indian markets await key data (Trade Balance, CPI, IIP) this week.

COMMODITIES
Gold (Spot 1172) saw a sharp bounce from 1131.15 on Friday. Our bearish target of 1110 is definitely delayed for some time at least. Crucial Resistance seen at 1180 and then at 1200. This could keep prices down in the first instance at least. A re-test of 1135-30 could be possible. Break below 1130 will be needed to ensure further bearishness.

Brent (83.75%) may have some more room on the downside towards 81.50-80.50 over the next couple of weeks, but could see a strong bounce from there. Beware.

Copper (3.0460) has come off a bit from Friday's high near 3.05, which was just below our first Resistance at 3.06. The medium term charts suggest chances of an eventual fall towards 2.90 while the market remains below 3.125

 

FOREX
Euro (1.2475) got a relief rally on lower-the-expected US non-farms payrolls data. Euro has retraced back to its September-lows of 1.2480, which is now a strong resistance in near term. Failing to cross above 1.2480-1.2500 would lead to another down move possibly targeting 1.2200.

Dollar-Yen (114.26) in very short term charts has taken support at 114.00. Break below 114.00 level should increase short-term profit booking; such a move would target a retracement up to 112.50. However, the medium to longer term up trend remains intact and we should see new highs in few weeks.

Pound (1.5890) after bouncing from the lows of 1.5790 has been unable to cross 1.5900. The levels of 1.6000 to 1.6100, all the way upto 1.6200, will now offer strong selling pressure, and market is likely to front-run this supply zone near 1.5950. The immediate target of 1.5725 remains on cards; this level will be key pivot in defining the long term trend on Pound.

Aussie (0.8668) has traded below its October range (0.8850-0.8680) for three days now. This break in the range is important as it is also a continuation from the bearish flag formation on daily-charts, and break of weekly support last seen in Jan-2014. In longer term, as long as Aussie trades below 0.8800, we have a valid target of 0.8400 and lower.

INTEREST RATES
Last week, the RBI Dy Gov. HR Khan played down market expectations of an interest rate cut. He said the RBI's models predit inflation at 7% for 2016. In fact, we think there could be chances of 8% as well. If the 10Yr GOI (8.2092%) bounces on this news today, it would arrest the fall that could have otherwise targeted 8.0%.

The US yields went up a bit last week, but could start coming off again in the medium term. The long-term Curve flattening trend remains intact, with charts suggesting chances of the 30Yr (3.03%), 10Yr (2.30%) and 5Yr (1.59%) eventually converging between 2.00-2.75% in the long term.

While the German-US 2Yr (-0.564%) remains below -0.55% it would be in danger of falling further towards -0.60% and lower.

Japanese yields remain in a slow and steady downtrend. The 10Yr (0.48%) could gravitate towards 0.35% over time.

DATA TODAY



1:30 GMT or 7:00 IST CN PPI (YoY)
...Expected -1.9 % ...Previous -1.8 % ...Actual -2.2 %

1:30 GMT or 7:00 IST CN CPI (YoY)
...Expected 1.60 % ...Previous 1.60 % ...Actual 1.60 %


FRIDAY'S DATA:-

CN Trade Bal
...Expected 42.00 $ Bln ...Previous 31.00 $ Bln ...Actual 45.41 $ Bln

 

 

 

 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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