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Monday November 10, 2014 - 12:04:50 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Russia again amends its FX policy as it moves closer to free float

Mon, 10 Nov 2014 5:15 AM EST

- China Oct Trade Balance edges back towards record highs as components were mixed ($45.4B vs. $41.8Be) ; Exports YoY: 11.6% v 10.6%e; Imports YoY: 4.6% v 5.0%e
- Global Disinflationary theme remains in focus; China inflation remains soft with CPI matching 5-year lows at 1.6% while PPI registers its 32nd straight month of decline
- Russia Central Bank again amended its FX policy

**Economic Data***
- (CZ) Czech Oct CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.6%e
- (CZ) Czech Oct Unemployment Rate: 7.1% v 7.1%e
- (NO) Norway Oct CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0%e
- (IT) Italy Sept Industrial Production M/M: -0.9% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: +0.1% v -3.7% prior; Industrial Production WDA Y/Y: -2.9% v -0.7%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Sentix Investor Confidence: -11.9 v -13.8e
- (GR) Greece Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: -5.1% v -3.8%e
- (GR) Greece Oct CPI Y/Y: -1.7% v -0.9%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: -1.8% v -1.0%e

Fixed Income:
- None seen

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.5%,
FTSE 100 +0.3% at 6,587, DAX +0.3% at 9,317, CAC-40 +0.5% at 4,211, IBEX-35 +0.1% at 10,140, FTSE MIB -0.3% at 19,046, SMI +0.2% at 8,834, S&P 500 Futures 0% at 2,026]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets opened slightly lower but rallied higher right away on renewed interest in the M&A space over the weekend (Fugro, Songbird, Nutreco, Club Med). Spain equity markets shook off the pro-Mas results of a consultation on Catalonia independence finding the results largely irrelevant due to the non-binding nature and low voter turn-out of the consultation. Oil and Materials stocks are leading the way higher after the US dollar has temporarily halted its advance against commodities and European currencies.

- Earnings Recap (Carlsberg above ests; Telefonica Deutschland above ests; Vodacom lowers EBITDA forecasts; QSC Telecom reaffirms guidance; Lonmin moving ahead after strikes; Songa Offshore beats ests)

By Sector
- Financials
[Songbird Estates SBD.UK +5.5% (QIA may raise offer), Serco SRP.UK -32% (cuts forecasts, announces capital raise)]
- Technology [Fugro FUR.NL +25% (Boskalis takes 14.8% stake)]
- Energy [Cairn Energy CNE.UK +8.7% (oil discovery), DNO DNO.NO +13.8% (Kurds to pay producers)]
- Healthcare [Biotest BIO.DE +1.5% (good phase III Civacir data), Solvay SOLB.BE +2.2% (exploring sale of fiber unit)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Nutreco NUO.NL +14% (SHV raises offer), Club Med CU.FR +3.9% (possible counter-offer from Bonomi)]
- Consumer Staples [Sainsbury SBRY.UK -2.1% (to cut stores, dividend)]

- Russia Central Bank (CBR) again amended its FX policy and canceled its floating corridor.
It would now intervene at any time if stability was threatened
- Russia President Putin: Ready to expand energy trading into Yuan and Ruble currencies. RUB currency weakness had no fundamental reason. No plans to implement capital controls. Russia would not increase its state debt, gold and Fx Reserves were at good levels
- Russia Central Bank Statement: Base case scenario is that Western sanctions to remain in place until 2017. Forecasted 2015 GDP to 0.0% with 0.1% growth seen in 2016. It saw 2015 inflation between 6.2-6.4% range and pushed back 4% inflation target from 2016 to 2017
- Russia Central Bank 1st Dep Gov Yudaeva stated that raising interest rates in 2014 had kept the RUB currency (Ruble) from losing another 10% of its value. Tight monetary policy to remain in place as long as high inflationary expectations remained
- Kuwait Oil Min Ali al-Omair stated that he did not believe oil price would decline to a level that hurts the domestic economy and had no plans to reduce production. Worried about the decline in oil prices but not panicking. Price might decline below current levels but would stabilize
- OPEC Sec General El-Badri stated that oil investment would come back once prices stabilized and that some high-cost oil projects would be out of market. He reiterated that markets should not panic as 'things will work out'
- US President Obama commented from APEC trade summit in Beijing that we could do more to reduce trade barriers and - Welcome the rise of a prosperous and peaceful China

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX price action was light in a quiet session but the USD was consolidating its recent gains from prior weeks
. The USD/JPY tested the 114.00 level while the EUR/USD crpept up towards 1.25
- The EUR/CHF cross was approaching the pivotal 1.2000 floor. Last week SNB commented that the upcoming referendum Save Our Swiss Gold' initiative could limit policy options if approved. The market seemed poised to test central bank resolve on the currency floor (last defended back in 2012)
- The RUB currency firmed by 3% against the USD and EUR currencies after the Russia Central Bank again amended its FX policy. The central bank did away with its daily invention level and removed the rate corridor to have the RUB better reflect market fundamentals.

Political/In the Papers:
- (ES) Catalonia region consultation vote: About 80% of participants in "symbolic" Catalan poll estimated to be in favor of independence
- (IT) Italy President Napolitano might resign early as he suffering from a number of age-related problem and could possibly use his year-end address to make the announcement (**Note: Weekend press reports noted that ECB's Draghi was not interested in succeeding Napolitano as Italian President at year-end)
- OSCE inspectors in Ukraine reporting intense artillery fire breaking out early on Sunday (Nov 9th) in separatist-controlled Donetsk

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (MX) Mexico Oct Nominal Wages: No est v 4.2% prior
- (DE) German IG Metall Union begins wage negotiations for 2015/16
- 05:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Sept Trade Balance: No est v -0.9B prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 Czech Central bank will comment on CPI
- 08:15 (CA) Canada Oct Housing Starts (Annualized): 200.0Ke v 197.3K prior
- 08:15 Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell to sell combined 6.0-7.2B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Gross Fixed Investment: 3.2%e v 3.1% prior
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-day main Refi
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $52B in 3-Month and 6-month Bills
- 12:00 (US) USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Corp Report

- 13:00 (LX) ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg)
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $26B in 3-Year Notes
- 17:10 (US) Fed's Rosengren
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Sept Current Account Balance: No est v 287.1B prior; Current Account Adjusted: No est v 130.8B prior
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Sept Trade Balance: No est v -831.8B prior
- 19:01 (UK) Oct BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y: No est v -2.1% prior
- 19:10 (AU) RBA speaker Alymer


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