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Tuesday November 11, 2014 - 03:36:17 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 11-Nov-2014 -0336 GMT


Dow 30 (17,613.75, +0.23%) saw yet another high in slow trades. 17,300 would act as good short term support in any retracements. We expect volatility to pick up in later half of November going into Thanksgiving holidays (Nov 27) as US has packed data-release schedule and as traders would also try book profits or reposition ahead of year-end. 

Dax (9,351.87, +0.65%) has traded around the pivot of 9300 for days now with neither explicit bullish or bearish patterns. We would like to remind the long term technical structure is still bearish and has not be invalidated yet. Only the move above 9700, would truly invalidate the bearish formation.

Nikkei (16,911.65, +0.78%) remains in consolidation after its wild moves last fortnight. It has broken above the short term descending triangle formation on to the upside, and it may target 17,150-17,200 in next 2-3 days.

Shanghai (2,486.78, +0.53%) surged to new multi year highs on back of strong export data. There is little in terms of resistances until 2600, but minor resistances at 2,515 and 2,556 would be the first targets.

Nifty (8,344.25, +0.09%) has been volatile inside the range (8290-8380) as bulls and bears fight hedge their positions before crucial Indian data. Though we do not expect any rate cuts in this meet, a lower CPI will bolster the expectations of the rate cut.

Heavily exposed Dollar bulls are caught in a slide but holding so far within corrective ranges against the broader uptrend. Precious metals, on the other hand, trade flat to negative. 

Possibility of a corrective bounce in 
Gold (1155.20) prices is limited till 1190-1200. Technical validity of the downside target of 1110 is in shape. Silver (15.60) is trading flat, in its corrective bounce against the longer-term down trend. We maintain our down side target of 14.60 with a resistance placed at 15.80-90 levels. 

Trading below 79-80 levels itself is bearish for the 
Nymex WTI (77.33). No structural change in prevailing trend has been seen yet. Therefore 74-75 remains our down side target. Yesterday, Brent(82.13) could not survive the selling pressure form 85 levels and came down. We continue to hold bearish stance for the target of 79.

Copper (3.0225) is facing resistance around 3.05-06. We prefer being bearish at around 3.10 (down trending channel resistance) for the target of 2.95. Prevailing bearish technical shape is intact.

Euro (1.2438) could not sustain above 1.2500 levels and promptly dropped back. Focus now shifts to EU data releasing this week (GDP, CPI & Industrial Production) for further cues on longer term trends and possible ECB actions. Markets are likely to hold the current ranges of 1.2360 to 1.2500 going into the GDP & CPI data on Friday.

Dollar - Yen (114.76) is continuing its range trades as it awaits further cues from Dollar and 
Euro. Most of the Yen-crosses which are at their resistances are also supporting Yen for now. It is likely to hold the range of 114.00 or even 112.50 on the downside and 115.50 on the upside.

Pound - Dollar's (1.5852) short term chart structure is looking increasingly bearish, coupled with the fact that 1.5900 levels were instantly rejected, we expect our target of 1.5725 to be feasible in next few days. To note, Pound now has major supply zone stretching from 1.6000-1.6200, which has been pivotal for past few years. Pound will not regain its bullishness until it crosses these resistances. Consequently, Pound will remain bearish as long as it trades below 1.60-1.62 band.

Aussie (0.8646) which bounced from the low of 0.8550 was stopped ahead of 0.8700, the area near the bottom of October's range trades. Aussie looks increasingly bearish below these range-levels, and there is high probability the target of 0.8450 would be reached.

Euro-Pound (0.7845), in short term charts, has been thrice rejected from the resistance levels of 0.7860, and trades just ahead of the crucial long term support at 0.7750. Any further weakening of this pair, will also add to Euro-bearishness.

Euro-Yen (142.70), is not trading close to its yearly resistance. A break above this level will weigh heavily on Yen, while it will provide some relief to Euro.


USA closed today for Veterans Day. 

The KSHITIJ E4 Composite Yield (1.116%) has some more room on the downside towards 1.02%, but might stage a decent bounce from there in the medium term. But, the individual country yields do not fully support this. Italy (2.345%) and France (1.117%) are still in a downtrend. The German 10Yr (0.833%) too could gravitate towards 0.65%. Need to watch how this resolves.

German-US 2Yr Spread (-0.59%) is indeed falling towards -0.60% as suggested yesterday. Even -0.63% is possible.

We've been talking of Curve flattening in the USA. The 10-5Yr Spread (0.72%) is tracing a sideways triangle at the moment, with Support at 0.70%. Resistance at 0.75%. While below 0.75%, look for an eventual break below 0.70% for fresh declines.

The US 2Yr Swap Cost (0.2101%) is consolidating sideways between 0.20-0.25% now. There are some chances it could trace a bearish SHS. A break below 0.20% could be bearish.

Japanese yields (5Yr 0.13% and 10Yr 0.46%) are trading just at long-term horizontal trendline Supports. Unclear whether they will break lower or bounce. Contrarily, the 30Yr (1.48%) could be accelerating on the downside after its fall from 1.652% (30-Oct). Something not tying up there. 

The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.177%) is close to a horizontal Support near 8.15%. Need to see if this produces a bounce or if the yield goes straight down towards 8.10% and lower. 


11:30 GMT or 17:00 IST IN Trade bal 
...Previous -14.3 $ Bln

...Expected -1.9 % ...Previous -1.8 % ...Actual -2.2 %

...Expected 1.60 % ...Previous 1.60 % ...Actual 1.60 %






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