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Wednesday November 12, 2014 - 03:28:25 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 12-Nov-2014 -0328 GMT


The momentum in 
Dow 30 (17,614.90, +0.01%) has drained away considerably as it tries to consolidate. However, the narrow range candles (Doji) could point to some increased risks of down move. Above 17,620, we expect to see 17,780 and 17,910, while 17,480 and 17,400 are the supports.

Nikkei (17,404.04, +1.64%) rose to retouch the early Nov 3rd top at 17,400 before cooling off. Triggers were further Yen weakening to new lows of 116.10 against Dollar and possible postponement of the Japanese sales-tax hike. For the day, 17,240 and 17,100 is the support and 17,444 the top is the resistance.

Dax (9,369.03, +0.18%) is looking the weakest among major indices. Its lack of trend in crossing the resistance of 9300 and its continuing trading below the key pivotal of 9,700 while other markets make new highs correspond to larger weakness in-line with long term chart formations. For long term traders, Dax would be a good sell at these levels with stops above 9700-9800, a risk of 3.6%, for a gain of well in excess of 10%.

Shanghai (2,478.02, +0.3%) fell just short of our first target at 2,515, and retrace to 2,450. In short term, we expect the current bounce from 2,450 to hold and reach 2,508 and 2,515 and cross these levels.

Nifty (8,362.65, +0.22%) has moved to the higher end of the range (8290-8380). Markets will be focused on CPI, expected at 5.8%, which is lower than 6.4% in previous reading.

Dollar trades flat in early Asian trade. Consolidation within long term downtrend continues in Precious metals. 

Gold (1165.88) is trading flat to positive below resistance levels of 1190-1200. Bearish tone may remain subdued because of muted U.S Dollar Index. Our downside target of 1110 is still valid, so beware on rise towards 1200 levels. Silver (15.71) is trading flat below 15.90. Technical bias favours the long term bears. Hence, we maintain our down side target of 14.60 with a resistance placed at 15.80-90 levels. 

Nymex WTI (77.55) has been oscillating in the tiny range of 75-80 levels since last 4-5 sessions. No major change has occurred in prevailing down trend. So, down side technical target of 74-75 is intact. Huge supply pressure on each leg of rise in Brent (81.30) would restrict the upside till 82-84 levels. 79 remains our immediate downside target. 

Technical bias still favours the 
Copper (3.0275) down trend, with no structural change in it. 3.05-3.10 are the resistance levels and 2.95 is to be considered as the major support.

Euro (1.2463) has formed positive divergences on the charts which is supporting the prices. However, 1.2580-1.2600 would be a strong resistance and is unlikely to be crossed on such short-term basing formation. A drop below 1.2400 would indicate reversal to 1.2350 and to newer lows.

Dollar-Yen (115.43) continued its trend and touched new highs. We expect the market to consolidate around 114.00-116.50 over next few days. 

Pound (1.5910) has also bounced from 1.5780s. In the long run, as long as the key pivot of 1.5725 holds, the larger trend for Pound remains bullish and hence would have better payoff if Dollar starts to decline. In short term however, market is likely to front-run the supply zone of 1.600-1.6200 around 1.5950s. 

Aussie (0.8689) has bounced back to the bottom of trading range (0.8850-0.8680) where it has some serious resistances. We don't expect it turn bullish anytime soon. For the very short term, Aussie is likely to be stuck between 0.8750-0.8600. Break below 0.8600 would initiate fresh down trends targeting 0.8450.

Dollar-Rupee (61.55) market will be keenly watching CPI numbers. Further trend should arise out of this number, especially an outlook on interest rates. In short term, resistance is seen at 61.75-80 area, we expect this resistance to hold and can be sold into.

The US was closed for Veterans Day yesterday. The 10Yr had closed near 2.36% on Monday.

The KSHITIJ E-4 10Yr Composite yield (1.1005%) has dipped a wee bit from 1.1162%. We see chances of 1.02% in the coming days. Have to see if we get a bounce from there or not. The 
German10Yr (0.826%) has dipped from 0.842% the day before, in an overall downtrend. The target level of 0.65% mentioned yesterday may have been wrong though. A level of 0.75% would be more correct. 

We had pointed out that the Japanese 5Yr and 10Yr were trading at important long-term horizontal trendline Supports. Both have bounced a bit. The 5Yr is up from 0.1415% to 0.1515%. The 10Yr is up from 0.5065%. Now we have to see whether the bounce sustains or not. A rise past 0.52-0.56% on the 10Yr would be a big thing. Keeping an eye on that.

The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.1859%) had inched up a bit yesterday. We are watching Support at 8.15%. The market would be looking for a confirmation of its Inflation optimism. The Oct-14 CPI needs to substantially lower that the Sep-14 CPI of 6.46% to bring in further cheer. The market expectation is already a very low 5.8%. Beating that might be a tall order.


9:30 GMT or 15:00 IST UK Unemp 
...Expected 5.90 % ...Previous 6.00 % 

10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST 
EU IND Prodn (MoM) 
...Expected 0.6 % ...Previous -1.8 % 

12:00 GMT or 17:30 IST IN IIP 
...Previous 0.40 % 

12:00 GMT or 17:30 IST IN CPI 
...Previous 6.46 


IN Trade bal 
...Previous -14.3 $ Bln






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