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Thursday November 13, 2014 - 11:34:41 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: China data shows fresh signs of sluggishness while ECB Survey of Forecasters cut inflation and growth outlook for 2014-16 period


Thu, 13 Nov 2014 5:20 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Bank of Korea (BOK) leaves 7-Day Repo Rate unchanged at 2.00% as expected in a unanimous decision
- China's economy showed fresh signs of sluggishness; Oct Industrial Production hits a decade low (7.7% vs. 8.0%e) while retail sales slowed for a 5th straight month to lowest level since Feb 2006
- ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) cut its inflation and growth forecasts for 2014-16 period but not seeing deflation
- Eurozone Q3 GDP data set for Friday release set to disappoint

**Economic Data***
- (CN) China Oct YTD Fixed Urban Assets Y/Y: 15.9% v 16.0%e
- (CN) China Oct Retail Sales Y/Y: 11.5% v 11.6%e; Retail Sales YTD Y/Y: 12.0% v 12.0%e
- (CN) China Oct Industrial Production Y/Y: 7.7% v 8.0%e; Industrial Production YTD Y/Y: 8.4% v 8.5%e

- (DE) Germany Oct Final CPI M/M: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e
- (FR) France Oct CPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.4%e; CPI Ex-Tobacco Index: 125.92 v 125.85e
- (ES) Spain Oct CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.1%e
- (CH) Swiss Oct Producer & Import Prices M/M: -0.1% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.1% v -1.3%e
- (ID) Indonesia Central Bank (BI) left its Reference Rate unchanged at 7.50%, as expected
- (EU) ECB Nov Monthly Report with Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) cut its inflation and GDP forecasts for the 2014-16 period

- (IT) Italy Oct Final CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prelim; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.1% prelim
- (GR) Greece Aug Unemployment Rate: 25.9% v 26.1%e

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro)
sold 1.39B in 1.80% I/L Nov 2024 bonds; Real Yield: 0.859% v 1.459% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.06x v 3.7x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.6%
, FTSE 100 +0.2% at 6,628, DAX +0.8% at 9,287, CAC-40 +0.6% at 4,208, IBEX-35 +0.4% at 10,199, FTSE MIB +0.3% at 18,760, SMI +0.5% at 8,913, S&P 500 Futures +0.2% at 2,040]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open higher following the losses seen in the prior session, FTSE 100 capped by ex-dividends, Wal-Mart to report during NY morning

- Earnings Recap (RWE net profit below ests; Tod's profits below ests; Sodexo below ests; SABMiller H1 sales below ests; Aegon below ests ; KBC Bank above ests ; London Stock Exchange reports rise in H1 adj Op profit and revenues; Wind power firm Nordex raises outlook; Fertilizer name K+S raises outlook; Symrise above ests; Solvay Q3 net profit below ests; Iliad's Q3 mobile Rev above ests; ; Merck KGaA Q3 net profit below ests; Stada reaffirms outlook)]

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[GateGroup GATE.CH +7% (Q3 profits rose); Tod's TOD.IT -6% (results below ests)]
- Financials [KBC KBC.BE +5% (Q3 results above ests); Aegon AGN.NL -5% (Q3 profits below ests)]
- Energy [Nordex NDX1.DE +2.5% (raised outlook); Shell RDSA.UK -1% (ex-dividend)]
- Utilities [RWE RWE.DE -1.5% (9-month net profit below ests)]
- Industrials [Symrise SY1.DE +3% (9-month results above ests), Alstom ALO.FR +3% (buyback)]
- Telecom [Iliad ILD.FR +3% (Q3 mobile Rev above ests)]
- Healthcare [Merck MGaA MRK.DE -1.5% (Q3 net profit below ests)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Telecom +1.2%, Basic Materials +1%, Industrials +0.9%, Consumer Cyclical +0.8%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.8%, Technology +0.8%, Financials +0.8%, Energy +0.6%; Utilities -1.4%]

***Speakers***
- ECB Nov Monthly Report
reiterated that the Council was unanimous in its view to act again if needed. Inflation to remain at current low level over the coming months
- ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) cut its inflation and GDP forecasts for the 2014-16 period. It now saw EU Harmonized CPI at 0.5% for 2014, at 1.0% for 2015 and at 1.4% for 2016. GDP growth was seen at 0.8%, 1.2% and 1.5% for the forecast period
- BoEs Broadbent stated that the decline in commodity prices would depress inflation (comments in line with quarterly inflation report)
- SNB's Danthine reiterated view that currency floor to remain in place for foreseeable future
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Jochnick stated that Sweden could delay its first potential interes rate hike if inflation disappoints
- Fed's Dudley (dove, FOMC voter): Letting economy run slightly hot for a while could significantly benefit job seekers. Would be 'premature' to hike interest rates soon and a premature rate hike the bigger risk than waiting too late. Timing of rate hikes will depend on how economy performs
- Japan GPIF pension fund president Mitani: No fixed timeframe on meeting asset allocation target
- White House stated that it had reached a trade agreement with India on its food stockpiling program; details not provided
- China PBoC said to might add cash to banks in some provinces that could total tens of billions of Yuan to support SMEs
- China Vice Fin Min Zhu commented ahead of G20 meeting that divergent global monetary policy among advance nations creates risks

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The EUR/USD consolidated its recent losses in the session. ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) cut its inflation and growth forecasts for 2014-16 period but confirmed ECB view of little risk of deflation was seen. The focus turning to Friday's release of numerous Q3 GDP data (includes France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and the Euro Zone)
- RUB currency was weaker on the back of lower oil hitting a 4-year low and the renewed threat of sanctions against Russia
- Japanese Yen briefly weakened once again after another dose of speculation over the fate of the 2nd round of the sales tax and snap elections. The USD/JPY was back in mid-115 area and stabilizing ahead of the G20 Summit in Australia that begins on Friday.
- AUD/USD encountered some turbulence when RBA assistant Gov Kent injected a threat of currency intervention into his remarks. Kent reiterated the most recent RBA position that AUD exchange rate was still too high relative to fundamentals. AUD found its composure when dealers noted the statement was standard rhetoric for the RBA.

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Weidemann (Germany): Inflation will undershoot the ECB target for a substantial period, risk of a deflationary spiral is limited
- OECD chief Gurria: Global GDP can be improved by 2.1% if G20 growth measure plans are fully implemented
- (US) Fed's Kocherlakota (dove, FOMC dissenting vote): Reiterates raising rates in 2015 would be a mistake
- (SA) Saudi Oil Min Al Naimi: Talk about an oil price war is a misunderstanding, Saudi wants steady prices that benefit all sides

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (AU) G20 Finance Ministers begin 2-day summit in Australian (ahead og leader Summmit)
- (DE) German Budget Committee finalizes 2015 Budget Draft
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoso) to sell 4.5-6.0B in 2018, 2021 and 2030 BTP Bonds
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 3.0B in 2.75% 2024 Gilts

- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to Sell Bills
- 06:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Nov 7th: No est v $428.6B prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Oct CPI M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.3% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Oct CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.5% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Sept Trade Balance: No est v 3.3B prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- (RU) Russia Q3 Advance GDP Y/Y: 0.8%e v 0.8% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Sept Current Account Balance: -0.5Be v -1.0B prior; Trade Balance: 0.4Be v 0M prior; Exports: 14.0Be v 11.6B prior; Imports: 13.5Be v 11.6B prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Oct CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -0.4%e v -0.3% prior
- 08:15 Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 280Ke v 278K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.35Me v 2.348M prior
-08:30 (CA) Canada Sept New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.5% prior
- 09:15 (BR) Brazil to sell 2015, 2016 and 2018 Bills
- 09:15 (BR) Brazil to sell Fixed-rate 2021 and 2025 bonds
- 10:00 (US) Sept JOLTS Job Openings: 4.8Me v 4.835M prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (IS) Iceland Oct International Reserves (ISK): No est v 544B prior
- 11:00 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Treasury announces size of upcoming 10-year Tip auction
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $16B in 30-Year Bonds
- 14:00 (US) Oct Monthly Budget Statement:
- 18:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at 3.50%



 

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