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Thursday November 13, 2014 - 16:41:08 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Oil slides and most stocks enjoy the ride


Thu, 13 Nov 2014 11:27 AM EST

**Economic Data***
- (IE) Ireland Oct CPI M/M: -0.3% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.3% prior
- (IE) Ireland Oct CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.3% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.5% prior
- (IE) Ireland Sept Trade Balance: 3.3B v 3.4B prior
- (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Nov 7th: $421.4B v $428.6B prior
- (RU) Russia Q3 Advance GDP Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.3%e
- (PL) Poland Sept Current Account Balance: -0.2B v -0.5Be; Trade Balance: 0.6B v 0.4Be
- (PL) Poland Oct CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.4%e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 290K v 280Ke; Continuing Claims: 2.392M v 2.35Me
- (CA) Canada Sept New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.7%e
- 09:15 (BR) Brazil to sell 2015, 2016 and 2018 Bills
- 09:15 (BR) Brazil to sell Fixed-rate 2021 and 2025 bonds
- 10:00 (US) Sept JOLTS Job Openings: 4.8Me v 4.835M prior
- 11:00 DOE Crude: -1.74M v +0.5Me; Gasoline: +1.8M v +0.5Me; Distillate: -2.8M v -1.5Me; Utilization: 90.1% v 89.2%

- The jobs picture received some mixed data on the headline, but looking under the hood the figures show a labor market that continues to improve. Weekly initial and continuing jobless claims ticked up with the initial figure reaching 290K for first time since mid Sep. The Sep JOLTS report more than offset it though. The headline 4.7M job openings were slightly below consensus expectations but the quite rate spiked to 2.8M the highest level since April 2008. The surge in quits was accompanied by a 6% increase in new hires, which climbed above the 5 million mark for the first time since December 2007.

- Oil prices remain a major driver of trade. WTI is slipping back towards $75 for the first time since 2009 while Brent is getting a foothold below the $80 mark. Washington appears to be pushing towards a vote on the XL pipeline while more soft economic data out of China and Europe continue to weigh on prices. Weekly DOE data did little to help prices after the utiliation rate jumped back above 90%. The OSX (oil service index) is down roughly 3% is by far the worst performing sector. Exxon, Chevron and Caterpillar all leveraged to oil are leading what is only a handful of Dow decliners.

- The psyche of the US consumer heading into the holidays is under the microscope following reports from various US retailers. The mood is mixed as Walmart offered some green shoots indicating Q4 SSS could end up positive. Kohls is 3.5% lower after noting they saw a particularly sharp falloff in traffic and sales in late Oct but also noted they had snapped back nicely in November. Enough to guide Q4 comp sales up 2-3% v -1.8% Q3 and remain cautiously optimistic. The turnaround in JCP remains shackled by losses, low single digit SSS projections and slowly improving free cash flow figures. Interestingly the other Dow components in the red not oil plays are American Express, Visa and JP Morgan.

- Warren Buffet and his Berkshire Hathaway are back in the news after announcing a deal to acquire the Duracell battery unit of P&G with cash and of all things P&G stock. The deal is valued at $6.7B and was done at 7x EBITDA indicating deals are still out there to be had for acquirers with deep pockets. Separately Hasbro is said to be in talks with Dreamworks Animation about a cash and stock deal that would bring the studio under control of the toymaker. Initial reception is tepid at best as Hasbro shareholders have seen the stock slide 6% while DWA has rallied 18%.

- Buyers have stepped into shares of Cisco post Q1 results that were largely in line with expectations. CSCO also announced a transition for its CFO which has put to rest speculation for some CEO Chambers could be leaving anytime soon.

**Looking Ahead**
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (DE) German Budget Committee finalizes 2015 Budget Draft
- Germany Foreign Min Steinmeier meets Russia counterpart Lavrov
- 11:00 (US) Treasury announces size of upcoming 10-year Tip auction
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $16B in 30-Year Bonds
- 14:00 (US) Oct Monthly Budget Statement: -$111.7Be v -$B prior
- 18:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at 3.50%
- (AU) G20 Finance Ministers begin 2-day summit in Australian (ahead of leader Summit)



 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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