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Friday November 14, 2014 - 03:46:38 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 14-Nov-2014 -0346 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
Dow (17,652.79, +0.23%) made another new high in a rather volatile trade. The immediate supports exist at 17,625-17,600 band and followed by 17,525 levels. The narrow range trade over past few days is a sign of caution as it awaits new directions from fundamental data.

Nikkei (17,330.39, -0.36%) for the third day has sustained above 17,000 levels, its psychological resistance. Nikkei is charting out a triangular formation which would target 18,200, which is inline with our targets of 17,850 and 18,250. 17,000 is also the immediate support below.

Shanghai (2,466.45, -0.77%) has found it difficult to cross 2500 levels despite four attempts in short term. However, the sequence of higher-bottoms continues and we press for an upper breakout, probably in line with the better global economic data expected next week.

Dax (9,248.51, +0.41%) is still charting out its short term topping formation but within the expected range 9200-9400. we expect it to trade within the range today.

COMMODITIES
Precious metals remain stubbornly flat amid consolidation in U.S. Dollar Index.

Gold (1160.87) ranged in between 1140-80 for the 10th session in a row. In the absence of short term directional cues it may remain stuck in its current range. Keeping our broader bearish outlook intact, we continue with down side target of 1110. Silver (15.62) daily candle pattern suggests traders are indecisive. Levels of 15.80-90 are to be defended by the long term bears to continue the down fall towards our target area of 14.60.

Despite intensified geopolitical tension in major oil producing countries, 
Brent (77.98) prices have declined to July”2006 high of 78.60 levels. Longterm Bears sitting on huge profits now, but fresh short sellers may get trapped. Also, we do not rule out the possibilities of short squeeze around these support levels of 78-79. Mean while Nymex WTI (74.40) has come down to our target area of 74. We prefer being watchful on the next development. 

Copper (3.0025) prices are not able to acknowledge global macro developments, so no structural change is seen in it. Consolidation with downward bias in the range of 2.95-3.05 will continue.

FOREX
Pound (1.5685) cut cleanly through the supports of 1.5725 which we expected would hold out for some days. Next critical supports come in around 1.55 regions. We will wait to see if the prices sustain below these levels which would further confirm the longer-term trend has deteriorated.

Euro (1.2459) was again saved from the rampaging Dollar by sustained up trend on Euro-Pound(0.7943). Euro itself is trading within the compressive ranges and is likely to break out on the downside as these are generally continuation patterns. Also, nothing substantially has changed on the fundamentals to warrant a contrarian call.

Like a horse ready to bolt, Yen (115.83) continues to trade at the edge of the new highs; trading just a few pips off the new highs, and occasionally making new highs. Markets are waiting for some resolution from the Japanese government's stance on Sales tax hike. Contrary to most perspectives, Sales tax postponement and a good GDP would pause the Yen-depreciation in short term. 112-117 bands (mid-115) would technically be a good place to consolidate for a longer term movement.

Aussie (0.8687) has been unable to hold within its previous range and has now dropped below the supports. Immediate resistances are 0.8760. We expect it to resume its downtrend shortly. 

INTEREST RATES
GOI 10Yr (8.22%) bounced off from the supports at 8.15%. We are likely to see a consolidation at these levels or a retest of the lows of 8.15% before we rally further to 8.40-8.50 resistance levels. A lot will depend on how the RBI and market approaches the rate-cut in benign inflation scenario.

We expect US 10Yr (2.34) to challenge the highs of 2.38s seen this week. 2.40-2.50 has been an important resistance for long time and hence also a psychological levels. Break above these levels will be very bullish for US bonds and Dollar. If it is unable to cross, we expect it to decline to around 2.25. Supports are at 2.32.

In short term charts, 
German 10Yr (0.80) has boucned from its support of 0.7880 which is good, and we expect it to recover to 0.82.

DATA TODAY



6:30 GMT or 12:00 IST IN WPI 
...Previous 2.38 % 

10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU GDP 
...Expected 0.70 % ...Previous 0.70 %

10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST 
EU CPI (YoY) 
...Previous 0.4 % 

13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST 
US Retail Sales (MoM) 
...Expected 0.21 % ...Previous -0.43 %



DATA YESTERDAY:-


CN Retail Sales 
...Expected 11.6 ...Previous 11.6 ...Actual 11.50

CN Ind Prodn 
...Expected 8.0 ...Previous 8.0 ...Actual 7.70

 

 

 

 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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