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Friday November 14, 2014 - 11:29:31 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Fragile position of the Euro Zone economy highlighted by today's release of the 3Q GDP data;

Fri, 14 Nov 2014 5:16 AM EST

- Japan Sales Tax debate hinges on Monday's release of Q3 GDP data (JPY near 7-year lows and Nikkei at 7-year highs ahead of the data)
- The fragile position of the Euro Zone economy highlighted by today's release of the 3Q GDP data; European GDP data failed to show any downside surprises but will it be enough to sway market expectations on additional ECB measures
- Germany narrowly escapes entering a technical recession; Greece emerges from recession after 6 years

**Economic Data***
- (FR) France Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.4%e (**Note: Q2 QoQ reading revised lower to -0.1%)

- (IN) India Oct Wholesale Prices (WPI) Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.1%e (5th straight decline to lowest since Sept 2009)
- (DE) Germany Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: +0.1% v +0.1%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.0%e; GDP WDA Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.1%e (**Note: Upward Q2 revisions)
- (FI) Finland Oct CPI M/M: -0.2% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e
- (CZ) Czech Q3 Advance GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.5%e
- (HU) Hungary Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 2.9%e
- (CN) China Oct M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 12.6% v 12.9%e; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 3.2% v 5.0%e; M0 Money Supply Y/Y: 3.8% v 4.2%e
- (CN) China Oct New Yuan Loans (CNY): 548.3B v 626.4Be
- (CN) China Oct Aggregate Financing (CNY): 663.0B v 887.5Be
- (NL) Netherlands Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Q3 GDP Q/Q: 1.7% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.0%e
- (IT) Italy Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.4%e (**Note: 13th straight quarter of contraction)
- (PL) Poland Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 2.7%e
- (PT) Portugal Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.2%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Q3 Advance GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.7%e

- (EU) Euro Zone Oct CPI M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.4%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 0.8%% v 0.7%e
- (GR) Greece Q3 Advance GDP Q/Q: 0.7%% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: +1.7% v -0.3% prior
- (CY) Cyprus Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.4% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -1.9% v -2.2% prior

Fixed Income:
- No major releases in session

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.1%
, FTSE 100 -0.1% at 6,625, DAX flat at 9,249, CAC-40 +0.2% at 4,200, IBEX-35 -0.2% at 10,125, FTSE MIB +0.4% at 18,890, SMI -0.3% at 8,922, S&P 500 Futures +0.2% at 2,037

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open slightly higher as Germany avoided a Q3 recession, CAC-40 rises amid GDP data and earnings from various large companies (Airbus, Arkema, Bouygues), FTSE 100 weighed down by mining sector amid weaker Chinese Oct lending data, Nokia issues initial FY15 outlook

By Sector
- Financials
[CPP Group CPP.UK -50% (restructuring update), Swiss Life SLHN.CH -2% (share placement), Julius Baer BAER.CH -1.5% (margin decline)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Salzgitter SZG.DE +6% (broker commentary), Arkema AKE.FR +3% (reaffirmed outlook), Bekaert BEKB.BE +2% (Q3 sales above ests)]
- Industrials [Bouygues EN.FR +5% (raised sales forecast), Airbus AIR.FR +2.5% (Q3 Op profit above ests)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Geox GEO.IT +7.5% (9-month results above ests), Ferragamo SFER.IT +3.5% (9-month sales rose), Aggreko AGK.UK +3% (reaffirmed outlook)]
- Consumer Staples [Sainsbury SBRY.UK +2% (convertible bond offering)]
- Technology [Premier Farnell PFL.UK -7% (cautious outlook)]
- Utilities [RWE RWE.DE -3% (speculation dividend will be cut)]
- Energy [Abengoa ABG.ES -15% (concerns related to certain bonds)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Telecom +0.2%, Industrials +0.4%, Consumer Cyclical +0.2%, Technology +0.2%, Financials +0.2%, Consumer Non-Cyclical flat; Utilities -1.5%Energy -0.7%, Basic Materials -0.3%]

- European Finance Ministers (Ecofin) commented ahead of meeting for 2015 budgets

- Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem stated that he saw a reasonable outcome on EU budget payments
- Japan LDP lawmaker Murakami: Have to quickly stop the Yen's decline; decline to 120 would lead to 'Japan-selling'
- China issues tax rules for stock connect plan: waives income tax for 3 years for trading HK shares through connect
- IEA Monthly Report maintained its 2015 global demand growth outlook of 1.13M bpd. It noted that pressure was building on OPEC to cut production but it appeared no clear consensus on a supply cut as of yet. IEA forecasted further downward oil price pressures could build further in H1 2015.

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- EUR/USD consolidated its earlier losses in Asia aided by European GDP data as Germany avoided a technical recession and France headline GDP beat expectations. Greece ended nearly 6 years of recession. EUR/USD just above 1.2450 ahead of the NY morning.
- EUR/CHF Cross continued to hit fresh 26-month lows testing below 1.2015 and egging the SNB to show its hand on defending the currency floor
- USDJPY rally continued with the pair hitting fresh 7-year highs. The debate regarding the future shape of policy in Japan continued and should get further light with Monday's key Q3 GDP release (seen as most likely time for PM Abe to decide whether to call a snap general election and delay the next stage of the sales tax hike)
- AUD came under some particular pressure on news that Glencore, the world's biggest thermal coal miner, is planning to close some mines in Australia in December due to global oversupply

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Noyer (France): Threat of deflation in eurozone is not a "credible risk" - financial press; Not opposed to buying govt bonds if rates rise and Euro zone suffers negative shocks.
-(JP) Japan PM Abe getting closer to deciding to delay sales tax; To make a decision next week after looking at prelim GDP data and holding meetings with advisers

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (ES) Spain Sovereign Debt Rating published by S&P (currently BBB with Stable outlook)
- (CY) Cyprus Sovereign Debt Rating might be published by Moody's (currently Caa3 with positive outlook)
- (BE) Belgium Sovereign Debt Rating published by Fitch (currently AA with stable outlook)
- (PT) Portugal Econ Min de Lima at event
- IMF conference on macroprudential policy
- (EU) European Finance Ministers (Ecofin) meet on 2015 budgets (press conference around European close)
- 05:30 (DE) German Parliament briefing on budget bill
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Q3 Labor Costs Y/Y: No est v 3.1% prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Retail Sales M/M: 0.4%e v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: +0.7%e v -1.1% prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Broad Retail Sales M/M: +0.3%e v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: -1.5%e v -6.8% prior
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment vs. 4.0Be
- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell combined 4.0B in 1-Month Bills, 3-Month and 6-Month Bills (0.5B, 1.5B and 2.0B respectively)

- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell Bonds
- 06:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Oct 31st: No est v $315.9B prior
- 06:30 (ES) Bank of Spain (BOS) Dep Gov Restoy in Madrid
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (IL) Israel Oct CPI M/M: +0.2%e v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.4%e v -0.3% prior
- 07:00 (IS) Iceland Oct Unemployment Rate: No est v 3.0% prior
- 07:30 (TR) Turkey Central Bank TCMB Survey of Expectations
- 07:50 (DE) ECB's Lautenschlaeger in Stockholm
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Oct M3 Money Supply M/M: 0.8%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 7.9%e v 7.8% prior
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces upcoming bond auction
- 08:15 Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Oct Advance Retail Sales M/M: +0.2%e v -0.3% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: +0.2%e v -0.2% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas: 0.4%e v 0.1% prior; Retail Sales Control Group: +0.4%e v -0.2% prior
- 08:30 (US) Oct Import Price Index M/M: -1.5%e v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: -1.7%e v -0.9% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Sept Manufacturing Sales M/M: +1.0%e v -3.3% prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 09:00 (US) Fed's Bullard in St Louis
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Sept Trade Balance: No est v -1.2B prior
- 09:55 (US) Nov Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 87.5e v 86.9 prior Final reading
- 10:00 (US) Sept Business Inventories: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) Oct Minutes
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Oct National Urban CPI M/M: 1.4%e v 1.4% prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Oct Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.6% prior; Y/Y: no est v 29.3% prior
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: 7.0%e v 7.5% prior
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: 1.0%e v 0.3% prior
-16:00 Fed members Fisher and Powell with ECB's Coeure (France) on panel in Washington DC
- 17:00 (FR) ECB's Coeure (France) in Washington DC
- 17:00 (US) Fed members Fisher and Powell participate on panel
- (AU) G-20 Leaders begin 2-day Summit in Australia
- (PE) Peru Sept Economic Activity Y/Y: No est v 1.2% prior
- (PE) Peru Oct Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.6% prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Nov Minutes


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