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Friday November 14, 2014 - 16:29:50 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Mixed Econ Data Drives Choppy Trading in Europe and the US

Fri, 14 Nov 2014 11:13 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (BR) Brazil Sept Retail Sales M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.7%e
- (IL) Israel Oct CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.4%e
- (IS) Iceland Oct Unemployment Rate: 3.2% v 3.0% prior
- (PL) Poland Oct CPI Core M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e, Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.5%e
- (US) Oct Advance Retail Sales M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas: 0.6% v 0.4%e; Retail Sales Control Group: 0.5% v 0.4%e
- (US) Oct Import Price Index M/M: -1.3% v -1.5%e; Y/Y: -1.8% v -1.6%e
- (CA) Canada Sept Manufacturing Sales M/M: 2.1% v 1.0%e
- (US) Nov Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 89.4 v 87.5e
- (US) Sept Business Inventories: 0.3% v 0.2%e
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: +40 bcf vs. +36-40 bcf expected range

The second reading of European Q3 GDP data confirmed that growth is nowhere to be seen on the continent, although the prelim German Q3 GDP q/q reading rose to +0.1% from -0.2% in the advance reading. US indices have been choppy in the first 1.5 hours of trading. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.04%, the S&P500 is up 0.02% and the Nasdaq is up 0.11%.

Data out this morning showed US retail sales rose 0.3% in October, a nice recovery after September's 0.3% contraction. October import prices posted their largest monthly decline in more than two years on thanks to the continuing drop in crude oil prices. October's 1.3% drop in import prices was the largest since June 2012, leaving import prices down 1.8% y/y. Finally, the November U of Michigan consumer confidence survey hit a seven-year high, topping expectations. Both one- and five-year inflation expectations fell lower from the October survey.

Moderate Fed governor James Bullard reiterated his moderate stance this morning. Bullard said that low inflation does not justify keeping rates near zero and that the ongoing improvements in the labor market indicate current Fed policy is no longer justified, given unemployment levels that are within a range near the Fed's long-term estimates for normal. He said he did not expect wages to give much of an inflation signal.

In FX trading, the Brazil Real currency weakened to 2.62 to the dollar, its worst level since April 2005. A Jefferies analyst had been saying that Brazil could lose its investment grade status in two or three years and also said the delay in the new government naming a finance minister was a concern. Later S&P said it was comfortable with the current Brazil sovereign rating of BBB-, the lowest level of investment grade. The last time USD/BRL tested this level the country did not have an investment grade rating. USD/JPY has risen to fresh seven-year highs ahead of Monday's key Q3 GDP data and the continuing debate about another possible sales tax hike. Traders continue to watch the 124 level, the high where USD/JPY stalled out back in June 2007.

Crude futures are bouncing higher this morning after yesterday's huge 3.65% slide lower. WTI futures bottomed out around $73.30, their lowest level since March 2009. The December contract is trading around $75.30 as of writing. Overnight the IEA monthly report warned that there is still downward pressure on prices. "The supply/demand balance suggest that the price rout has yet to run its course," the IEA said.

The G20 leaders summit gets underway in Australia on Saturday. The meeting looks like it may end up as a showdown between the West and Russian President Vladimir Putin. As Russia's proxies in the east build up military forces in the rebel eastern provinces, Ukrainian officials reiterated this morning that Kiev has no intention of using force to retake Donetsk and Luhansk, but also said it was well prepared to resist any new offensive.

***Looking Ahead***
- Belgium, Cyprus and Spain sovereign debt ratings may be published
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Oct Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.6% prior; Y/Y: no est v 29.3% prior
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: 7.1%e v 7.5% prior
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: 1.1%e v 0.3% prior
- 16:00 Fed members Fisher and Powell with ECB's Coeure (France) on panel in Washington DC
- 17:00 ECB's Coeure (France) in Washington DC
- 17:00 (US) Fed members Fisher and Powell participate on panel
- (AU) G20 Leaders begin two-day Summit in Australia


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