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Big Japan GDP Miss. Draghi Testimony Due. Global Flash PMI's Start on Thursday

Big Japan GDP Miss. Draghi Testimony Due. Global Flash PMI's Start on Thursday
  November 17, 2014 11:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

17 November--  10:30 GMT- Current Market Conditions
European markets are opening the new  week in a  RISK OFF posture Today saw early worse than expected Japanese GDP data which threw the economy into a technical recession. Dealers continued to unwind long GBP positions.

In the Far East, equities ended sharply lower. European bourses are down. U.S. share futures are lower. The U.S 10-yr note yield is down. 10-yr bund yields are lower  Gilt yields are down. European peripheral bond yields are mixed.

The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: EZ- ECB's Draghi, US- Industrial Production
  • Japanese preliminary 3Q14 GDP fell well short of expectations, contracting by 0.40% (-1.6% pa). Falling inventories and weak retail sales data were blamed for the miss. Undoubtedly, the planned sales tax hike will have to be postponed and the JPY will remain at risk for additional weakness.
  • Today still sees: testimony by ECB President Draghi and U.S. Industrial Production.
  • Tuesday features U.K. and U.S. inflation data, plus several second-tier U.S. items.
  • Wednesday sees BOE and Fed policy minutes and U.S. Housing Starts data.
  • Key items Thursday are global flash PMI estimates, U.K. Retail Sales, U.S. CPI, Consumer Confidence and Existing Homes Sales.
  • Friday highlights are a speech by ECB President Draghi and Canadian CPI figures.
  • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
00:50 JP GDP qq 3Q14 0.50% -1.80%
08:00 EZ Draghi Testimony in Brussels
14:15 US Ind Production manufacturing Output
09:30 GB CPI BOE targets inflation
13:30 US PPI inflation measure
21:00 US TIC Net Flows  capital flows
04:30 JP Bank of Japan  policy
09:30 GB BOE Minutes
13:30 US House Starts/Permits Housing data
18:00 FRB Fed Minutes
01:45 CN HSBC flash PMI key sentiment measure
08:00 FR MFG PMI flash key sentiment measure
08:00 FR SVC PMI flash key sentiment measure
08:28 DE MFG PMI flash key sentiment measure
08:28 DE SVC PMI flash key sentiment measure
08:58 EZ flash MFG PMI key sentiment measure
08:58 EZ flash SVC PMI key sentiment measure
09:30 GB Ret Sls consumer demand
13:30 US CPI Fed targets inflation
13:30 US Initial Claims weekly jobless
14:45 US Mfg MKt PMI flash key sentiment measure
15:00 US Existing Homes Top Housing Statistics
15:30 US EIA Crude impacts crude prices
13:30 CA CPI BOC targets CPI
14:00 EZ Draghi

Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
17/11/14 13:30 B US Empire PMI 12 6.2
17/11/14 14:15 A US Ind Prod 0.20% 1.00%
17/11/14 14:15 A US Cap Util 79.30% 79.30%
18/11/14 0:00 A TUESDAY
18/11/14 9:30 A GB CPI mm 0.10% 0.00%
18/11/14 9:30 A GB CPI yy 1.20% 1.20%
18/11/14 9:30 A GB RPI-X 2.30% 2.30%
18/11/14 9:30 B GB C-Out PPI y 0.80% 0.80%
18/11/14 10:00 B DE ZEW Conditions 1.5 3.2
18/11/14 10:00 B DE ZEW Expectations 0.5 -3.6
18/11/14 13:30 A US PPI core 0.10% 0.00%
18/11/14 13:30 A US PPI -0.10% -0.10%
18/11/14 15:00 B US NAHB Index 55 54
18/11/14 21:00 A US TIC Net Flows $b n/a n/a
18/11/14 21:00 B US TIC L-T Flows n/a 52.1
18/11/14 21:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
19/11/14 0:00 A WEDNESDAY
19/11/14 4:30 A JP Bank of Japan 0.10% 0.10%
19/11/14 9:30 A GB BOE Minutes n/a n/a
19/11/14 12:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
19/11/14 13:30 A US House Starts 1025 1017
19/11/14 13:30 A US House Permits 1038 1031
19/11/14 18:00 A FRB Fed Minutes n/a n/a
20/11/14 0:00 A THURSDAY
20/11/14 1:35 B JP flash PMI n/a 52.4
20/11/14 1:45 A CN HSBC flash PMI 50.2 50.4
20/11/14 8:00 A FR MFG PMI flash 48.5 48.5
20/11/14 8:00 A FR SVC PMI flash 48.5 48.3
20/11/14 8:28 A DE MFG PMI flash 51.5 51.4
20/11/14 8:28 A DE SVC PMI flash 54.5 54.4
20/11/14 8:58 A EZ flash MFG PMI 50.6 50.6
20/11/14 8:58 A EZ flash SVC PMI 52.3 52.3
20/11/14 9:30 A GB Ret Sls x-fuel mm 0.30% -0.30%
20/11/14 9:30 A GB Ret Sls X-fuel yy 4.20% 3.10%
20/11/14 9:30 A GB Ret Sls mm 0.30% -0.30%
20/11/14 9:30 A GB Ret Sls yy 3.90% 2.70%
20/11/14 11:00 B GB CBI Ind Output Trends n/a 18
20/11/14 13:30 A US CPI m -0.10% 0.10%
20/11/14 13:30 A US CPI yy 1.60% 1.70%
20/11/14 13:30 A US core CPI m 0.10% 0.10%
20/11/14 13:30 A US core CPI yy 1.70% 1.70%
20/11/14 13:30 A US Initial Claims 280 290
20/11/14 13:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.341
20/11/14 14:45 A US Mfg MKt PMI flash 56.5 55.9
20/11/14 15:00 B EZ Cons Conf prelim -10.8 -11.1
20/11/14 15:00 A US Philly Fed 18 20.7
20/11/14 15:00 A US Existing Homes 5.15 5.17
20/11/14 15:00 B US Lead Ind 0.50% 0.80%
20/11/14 15:30 A US EIA Crude mn n/a -1.74
20/11/14 15:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a 1.8
20/11/14 15:30 B US EIA Distillate mn n/a -2.8
20/11/14 15:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 90.10%
20/11/14 15:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 40

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
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